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| Sen-Elect Jacky Rosen was one of the biggest names of the 2018 Senate cycle-who will be the biggest names of 2020? |
But the midterms are over, and while I won't do a presidential article for a bit (I'm still sorting through my opinions on the late-breaking midterms, which look rosier for the Democrats than they did on Tuesday), I do want to do one time capsule article. One of the recurring articles we have on this blog is our "State of the Senate" articles, where I go through which Senate seats are the most likely to flip. While we don't know the results, based on the margins, we now know with relative confidence what the order of those Senate races were in terms of "most likely to flip," and I wanted to quickly compare them to my first State of the Senate article of last cycle (as a reminder, these are ranked by the likelihood that the seat will change hands, with #1 being my guess for most likely):
March 2017
10. Arizona
9. Wisconsin
8. Ohio
7. Florida
6. West Virginia
5. Nevada
4. Montana
3. Indiana
2. North Dakota
1. Missouri
Actual "Top 10" Based on Midterm Results
10. Ohio
9. Montana
8. West Virginia
7. Texas
6. Florida
5. Arizona
4. Indiana
3. Missouri
2. Nevada
1. North Dakota
I have to say, while the rankings changed around a bit, I'm pretty darn proud that I called all but one state in the final Top 10 (Tammy Baldwin vastly over-performed Trump's shock win of the Badger State in 2020, while I completely under-estimated the ability of Beto O'Rourke to win Texas). I suspect, though I might eat these words, that we'll see a similar vein this year. The last two cycles have seen a downturn in split-ticket ballots, and I anticipate that might also course-correct 2020 as well. You can also see in 2016 and 2018 that campaigns appear to matter less when you look at just the checkmarks. While men like Jason Kander and Beto O'Rourke can grossly over-perform their states, they don't end up winning them. The same can be said for incumbents that seem well-liked but aren't of the right party (look at Heidi Heitkamp or Dean Heller getting clobbered in their states).
This leads me to this year's Top 10. Obviously, I anticipate these will change around. Unexpected retirements (I make some guesses here, but I could be off), could play a major factor, and the strength of President Trump's presidential campaign will also be a component (if the economy goes South or Trump is in legal jeopardy, we could see a repeat of 2018 but with a map that Democrats can take advantage of in the Senate). But here's where I think 2020 looks right now:
Honorable Mention: It remains to be seen what Beto O'Rourke does next in his career. Wunderkinds can't keep their stamina forever, and it's entirely possible that he overplays his hand with a run for president in 2020 or decides to cash in on his newfound fame. But if he runs against Sen. John Cornyn, we should include him on this list. Sen. Mitch McConnell seems unlikely to retire, but he's by-far the most unpopular senator in the country, which could count for something, but considering the Democrats' best shot is former Gov. Steve Beshear, I'm not holding my breath (considering what happened to Evan Bayh & Phil Bredesen in similar situations). Finally, I think that Tina Smith could face a primary challenge (either from newly elected AG Keith Ellison or former Sen. Al Franken) that could complicate her getting a full-term in Minnesota (it's also possible Smith doesn't go for a full-term to a Senate seat she didn't actively pursue, but her campaign this year feels like she'll want to stay in office)-a messy primary in a likely 2020 swing state could land the Gopher State on the list, but she won a solid victory this year so I'm not quite at the point where I'd put her on the list. Watch all three of these races if the dynamics change.
Worth Noting: We still don't know who will win the Arizona & Florida Senate seats, as well as the Mississippi runoff, but my best guess is the Democrats take the first while the GOP grabs the second two. As a result, we're probably looking at Democrats needing three seats (plus the VP) or four seats (with a Republican in the White House) to take control. There are also a couple of Democrats rumored to run for the White House (Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren specifically) who have Republican governors in their states that could matter in the balance for the Senate. So keep that in mind as we look at this race as the Democrats will need somewhere between a 2-5 seat gain depending on other races going into 2020.
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| Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) |
Hawyeke State Democrats had a mixed night on Tuesday. They saw a promising shot by Fred Hubbell to take the governors' mansion disappear, and longtime Rep. Steve King couldn't get ousted in northwestern Iowa. But the state did pickup two House seats from sitting Republicans, as well as knocked out the Republican State Auditor. As a result, Democrats in the state have a bench to go after first-term Sen. Joni Ernst. The question here for the D's is whether or not Trump's strong 9.4-point margin was a fluke or whether this state is a bridge-too-far. Ernst is not a controversial senator, and as Chuck Grassley has shown, Republicans can hold Senate seats here for a long time. Newly-elected Reps. Cindy Axne or Abby Finkenauer would be Tier 1 candidates (as would sitting-Rep. Dave Loebsack), though they may want to establish themselves a bit more. Fred Hubbell could make a play for the seat if he so chooses, though he just lost a race he should've won so that doesn't make him an ideal candidate. Former Govs. Tom Vilsack and Chet Culver are always rumored for runs, but they never pull the trigger (and 2018 would have been a good year for one of them to mount a comeback). And Attorney General Tom Miller would make a good choice (though he may also be eyeing a run in 2022 for governor or senator). The Iowa Democrats have a pretty robust bench, but it remains to be seen if such a high-profile race can actually be won by the Democrats or if Iowa is just an extension of Missouri at this point.
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| Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) |
While she didn't quite make it it the Top 10 above, Debbie Stabenow was #11, a shock on a night I assumed that New Jersey, Tennessee, or Minnesota would be closer to that position. Stabenow's underwhelming victory comes two years after Trump stunned at a presidential level and won the Wolverine State. Is this a sign that Michigan is moving slowly away from the Democrats? If so, it could make Sen. Gary Peters' run for a second term that much harder. I suspect Peters runs again, and I wonder if, considering his tighter-than-expected race against Stabenow, 2018 nominee John James would begin as a frontrunner. Frequently candidates who get close in Senate races get a second chance (we'll see that below in some speculation), and James appears to be a good candidate in a state that was too blue for him in 2018. 2016 had some races where Democrats outperformed Trump, but no races where Trump won and the Democrat won a Senate race. If Trump takes Michigan in 2016, by how much can Peters outrun him?
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| Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) & Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), once colleagues...soon rivals? |
In 2016, two states stand out as ones that Trump lost by a very slim margin and will clearly pursue in 2020-Minnesota and New Hampshire. I sided with putting Jeanne Shaheen's race on this list rather than Tina Smith's because Shaheen, who will be 74 in 2020, is more likely to retire. Shaheen has made no comments one way or the other, but as a Democrat in their 70's facing a tough reelection campaign and no promise that she'll be in the majority at any point during her next term (or that she'll get a Democratic POTUS for most of it), would she pass on a chance to run? If she does, look for Rep. Annie Kuster or Rep-Elect Chris Pappas to make a jump into the race (possibly they both would considering that New Hampshire promotions are hard to come by). If she does run, I still think she could be vulnerable to the right challenger, but with Gov. Chris Sununu declining the race (vehemently) already, the only serious challenger to Shaheen would be former Sen. Kelly Ayotte, whom Republicans are already trying to woo into the race. If Shaheen stays and Ayotte doesn't run, this probably is too much for the Republicans unless Trump is truly dominant in 2020...but that's enough "if's" to keep New Hampshire in the Top 10.
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| State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D-GA) |
One of the truly staggering things about 2018 is looking at the down-ballot elections in Georgia. Not only did Stacey Abrams come very close to winning the office (it's still undecided, but Abrams will need a bit of a miracle to get into office at this point), but she dragged a lot of Democrats with her. The Georgia Secretary of State election will go to a runoff (which few expected), and at least one (perhaps two) Atlanta suburbs will have House flips. That means that Georgia may be more in-play than you'd think in 2020 when Sen. David Perdue is expected to seek a second term, especially if there is a candidate who can turn out voters in a similar way to Abrams. That candidate could, in fact, be Abrams herself, who may quickly turn around and try to capitalize on her momentum by running against Perdue. Former Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed may see Abrams' campaign as a way in for an African-American Democrat to finally win here (no black Democrat has ever won a Senate seat in the Confederacy, only African-American Republicans), and I could see 2014 nominee Michelle Nunn seeing a more favorable environment and making another play after a relatively close contest that year (given the environment). But Abrams definitely opened the door on this race, and would likely get rite-of-first-refusal should she want it.
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| Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) |
Every cycle, there's a couple of races that hinge almost entirely on if you can get one single candidate into the race. Bill Nelson would have been reelected over virtually anyone other than Rick Scott, and were it not for Beto O'Rourke, Ted Cruz would be looking at a 20-point victory right now. Though we don't always know who that candidate is (O'Rourke came out of nowhere), in 2020 the next chair of the DSCC has one job for the first few months of his or her tenure: get Steve Bullock to run against Steve Daines. Bullock, the sitting governor, is popular and Sen. Daines is hardly unbeatable. Jon Tester proved in 2018 that a Montana Democrat can definitely still win a Senate seat (witness how he won despite voting against Gorsuch AND Kavanaugh, and emerged victorious in a way that Braun & Hawley didn't), and Bullock has few options unless he is a presidential hopeful (where he'd be too moderate to likely make it through the primaries). If Bullock runs, this is a true race, as his being a sitting senator makes him different than Bredesen or Bayh. If he gets out, it's hard to imagine there's an obvious Democrat sitting around who can beat Daines in a state Trump will be winning by double-digits.
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| Sec. Anthony Foxx (D-NC) |
North Carolina has given Democrats very close results in the past two presidential contests (Obama lost it by 2.0, Clinton lost it by 3.7), so I'd anticipate that the Democrats will be making a serious play for the seat in 2020. It's probable that first-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) runs again, but it's not clear who the Democrats pick as their standard-bearer. I had thought for years that well-liked former Sen. Kay Hagan would be an option for the Democrats, as she seemed to turn down a 2016 race mostly because she wanted to take her seat, but she had a lot of health issues in 2018 and may not be well enough to run such a rigorous campaign. Gov. Roy Cooper is likely going to run for reelection, but one of the statewide Democrats could make a run for the seat (State Auditor Beth Wood hasn't made a play for higher office since winning statewide in 2008, and Attorney General Josh Stein seems ambitious enough to go for the seat). Former Charlotte Mayor and Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx could also make a play, but we have seen the Bradley Effect be more effective in North Carolina than in most states (though President Obama did win here in 2008). Suffice it to say, if the Democrats want the Senate (or the White House, for that matter), they need to find a way to make North Carolina come into play, and likely, actually win here.
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| Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) |
As a nation, we're probably sick-to-death of Susan Collins' inability to make timely decisions, but I hate to break it to you-that's what's going to matter in the Maine Senate race, and quite frankly, it could have a great impact on the battle for the Senate. Collins is one of only two Republicans running in states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and as a result she needs crossover votes who may be harder to come by after she dragged out her confirmation vote against Brett Kavanaugh. It's doubtful that a (by-then) two year old Supreme Court vote would matter, but she endorsed him in such a public way that it's hard to imagine that it won't be levied against her, or that she's not about to endure the toughest election since she was brought to the Senate. Collins may decide to end her career rather than endure six more years of such public scrutiny, and there's not a great GOP bench to succeed her. Regardless of whether he wins reelection or not, this would be Rep. Bruce Poliquin's nomination for the taking if Collins skips town, but he's not as good of a fit statewide as she is. If she does skip the race, the Democratic Primary could be a race to the left as there won't be the same need to moderate for the general. However, Maine is still a centrist state, and Collins is still well-liked. As a result, if she sticks around I have to hope the Democrats pick someone local like House Speaker Sara Gideon or Rep. Chellie Pingree rather than NSA Advisor Susan Collins, whose slim ties to the Pine Tree State make her an easier target for attack from Collins than someone local. Let's remember-Jacky Rosen, about as boring of a candidate as you can get, ended up being able to win in a blue state by being as close to "Generic Democrat" as you can muster, and that's probably what Democrats will need to counter Collins, not someone that liberals will rally around as a celebrity.
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| Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ) |
Though it's still undecided, it seems increasingly probable that the next senator from Arizona will be Kyrsten Sinema. Sinema's election, along with a strong statewide push by Democrats that could result in two more offices as Secretary of State and State Superintendent both appear to be strong possibilities in a state Clinton only lost by 3.5 points, means that this probable swing state for 2020 is very much in-play for a pickup for the Democrats. Sen. Jon Kyl (who was appointed to the seat after the death of John McCain) won't run, so it's our first open seat...probably. There has been a theory going around that if Martha McSally lost the Senate race (again, quite likely) that Kyl would resign early and Ducey would appoint her to avoid a messy primary in 2020 (in possibly a slap-in-the-face to voters, if they did this before January 3rd, McSally would become the senior senator over the voters' choice Sinema). Regardless, I think that McSally would run if she loses (same for Sinema), and she'd start as a frontrunner for the nomination, though it's hard to imagine Reps. Paul Gosar or David Schweikert letting her have a free pass on a rare open Senate seat in Arizona, and Attorney General Mark Brnovich could consider it if he doesn't have his eyes set on the governor's mansion. Former Governor Fife Symington is signaling he wants in, but he'll be 75 in 2020 and I doubt they go with a retread, and there's always the threat of a conservative firebrand like Kelli Ward or Joe Arpaio, but they both got clobbered in 2018 so I'd dismiss them at this point. On the Democratic side, former Attorney General Grant Woods seems likely to jump into the race, and would be a decent candidate, but his status as a former Republican might turn off primary voters, especially if a more liberal candidate like Rep. Ruben Gallego or Rep-Elect (and former Phoenix Mayor) Greg Stanton got into the race. Finally, I'm still not convinced that Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, term-limited in 2022, won't want this seat for himself, but depending on the recounts, there's a catch here. Despite the AP calling the Secretary of State race for Steve Gaynor, Democrat Katie Hobbs is now only 2k votes behind Gaynor with a number of ballots still to cast. Should Hobbs win, she'd be first in the line of succession to the governor's mansion, and as a result the Democrats would have veto power for redistricting. A little-watched down-ballot race in 2018, therefore, could decide who controls the Senate in 2020.
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| House Speaker Crisanta Duran (D-CO) |
No person saw the shellacking Dean Heller took in 2018 and got more nervous than Sen. Cory Gardner. A relatively generic incumbent who won during the Republican wave of 2014, Gardner knows that Nevada and Colorado are moving leftward at a similar pace, and Heller losing even against a relatively inexperienced challenger makes it probable that Gardner will endure a similar fate in two years. Democrats are not at a shortage of candidates. House Speaker Crisanta Duran should be toward the top of the list, and could help drive Latino vote in the state. The Centennial State just elected four new constitutional officers who might take a play out of Josh Hawley's book and run for this seat, knowing that there may not be a chance to run for a promotion for a while in a state with a blue governor and senator already (the same could be said for failed gubernatorial candidates Donna Lynne and Cary Kennedy). And then there are the two titans of the race: former Sen. Mark Udall and Gov. John Hickenlooper. Udall lost this seat six years ago, but is young enough that he might fight to get it back, and would be formidable against Gardner (though obviously he has lost in the past), while Hickenlooper clearly has his sights set on the White House. Should he bomb in the primaries, though, running for the Senate would keep his name relevant for a future run.
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| Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) |
Heidi Heitkamp, Claire McCaskill, and Joe Donnelly proved in 2018 that "borrowed time" senators are not sustainable in hyper-partisan times. In 2017, Sen. Doug Jones pulled off a miracle when he bested Roy Moore for the US Senate, but it's hard to imagine in a presidential election, when he's not facing an accused pedophile, that Jones can pull off the same in such a red state. Jones should be able to win the primary no problem (I read some news sources suggesting that someone might challenge him, but...why?), but there is a orchestra full of Republicans who could challenge Jones in the general. Rumor has it that former Attorney General Jeff Sessions may run for his old seat again, while Rep. Mo Brooks (who lost the primary to Moore) could be a possible contender. Reps. Mike Rogers, Martha Roby, Bradley Byrne and (especially) Robert Aderholt are all names that have been thrown around, and any one of them could put Jones into a double-digit defeat. About the only candidates that Jones might be able to beat are Roy and Kayla Moore, and while I doubt they'd do it, if they ran, they've proven in the past to be able to best Republicans in primaries. Otherwise, Jones is more likely running for Attorney General in a new Democratic administration that reelection to the US Senate. If he doesn't stay at #1 in every iteration of this list between now and next November, something truly bizarre will have happened.
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