Unlike the Senate, where Democrats best-case scenario is the thinnest of majorities, Democrats likely will come away with plum gains in the governor's races. This is because Republicans have 26 seats to defend to the Democrats' 9 (there's also an Independent seat up-for-grabs in Alaska). That combined with what looks like a very favorable environment for the Democrats this fall (the generic congressional ballot, plus the fact that a lot of the Republican seats are open after an 8-year-term, giving the opposition a chance to score after party fatigue), means that there are actually more than 10 competitive races here (one could make a sincere argument that all five of the Honorable Mentions could be in Tossup territory by fall, and at least the Top 2-3 are almost certain flips). But enough preamble-let's get into the list.
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| Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D-OK) |
Iowa is still forming, but could be competitive. Gov. Kim Reynolds took over when Terry Branstad became Ambassador to China, but has struggled to cement her candidacy in the wake of President Trump's tariff war, which has hit Iowa's farmers particularly hard (this may well be what the Chinese are going for, targeting swing states frequently with the items they're choosing for tariffs). While polling has been scarce, it's worth noting that a recent poll of IA-3 put Democrat Cindy Axne up over incumbent Republican Rep. David Young, which is an ominous sign for Reynolds.
Similarly, we're still waiting on a candidate to take on longtime Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI), though State Superintendent Tony Evers (D) feels like the probable winner of the primary. Though President Trump won the state in 2016, Democrats have scored two State Senate seats and a State Supreme Court seat since then, and Sen. Tammy Baldwin is outperforming expectations in the polls. Plus, in the past two weeks there have been two reputable polls that show Walker down by a significant margin. Normally, I'd say that Walker should get the benefit of the doubt (he's bested the Democrats three times now), but those poll numbers make me wonder if this is simply a case where Wisconsin voters are fed up and just want a change, even if it takes down a titan in the process.
Finally, there's Oklahoma, a state you don't usually see on lists like this but honestly would be #11 for me. Gov. Mary Fallin (R) is wildly unpopular, and Democrats have done extremely well in the past two years in special elections. The Republicans have a competitive runoff primary that is driving down their resources (and potentially could turn ugly) between OKC Mayor Mick Cornett and businessman Kevin Stitt, while the Democrats have rallied behind AG Drew Edmondson. It's weird to say in this "straight ticket" culture, but it's worth mentioning that not long ago states like Oklahoma regularly elected Democratic governors even as their states were bright red on a federal level. If they can elect a Democratic senator in Alabama, is it so far-fetched to assume they can't do the same for Oklahoma's governor?
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| Rep. Gwen Graham (D-FL) |
Onto the main events, and we start with Florida, a state that still needs to pick its candidates, and weirdly has seen the "most competitive" primary title switch from the Republicans to the Democrats. This is because Rep. Ron DeSantis has benefited greatly from an endorsement from President Trump (suddenly a very hot commodity), and Adam Putnam getting reamed for not properly following Florida law when it came to gun permits (all the more important after the Parkland High School shootings, which happened in the state). DeSantis's ass-kissing of Trump (that latest commercial is pathetic) could come back to haunt him in the general, but for now he's solidifying the nomination. DeSantis's opponent, though, is very much a question mark. For much of the race Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine has dominated polling, but it appears that Rep. Gwen Graham and real estate tycoon Jeff Greene are closing fast on Levine as the primary approaches, and both are expected to spend heavily in the final days of the campaign. Graham, in particular, could benefit from being the only major female candidate in the race, which has helped a number of women running previously this cycle (though, it's worth noting, this has been more of a House trend than a gubernatorial trend). Either way, this will be competitive as the Democrats shoot to win the office for the first time since 1994, though it's worth noting that the D's are more often bridesmaids than brides in the Sunshine State. (Previous Ranking: 7)
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| Attorney General Lori Swanson (D-MN) |
Minnesota is on this list mostly out of caution for its upcoming primaries, as I think depending on the results of those primaries, we could be in a situation where this is less competitive, or only competitive in theory. The Democrats saw their entire world upended when Attorney General Lori Swanson (along with Rep. Rick Nolan, who is in the midst of a #MeToo scandal that could hurt the campaign) made a last-minute bid for the governor's mansion after State Rep. Erin Murphy won the party endorsement. Since then, two of three polls have shown Swanson with a nominal lead over Rep. Tim Walz (Murphy, less well-known, polls third), though her support appears to be soft and her campaign is showing how new it is with an unpolished rollout. Still, Swanson has massive name recognition and with the primary just a few weeks away, that might translate into her winning the primary, and perhaps the general (I'd argue she's the best general election candidate, but I felt more strongly about that statement before Nolan, and part of me wishes that she'd bump him for Walz on the ticket if she wins the primary). Her opponent in that general will probably be former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, but his recent decision to go negative against County Commissioner Jeff Johnson makes me think that internals show that race tighter than expected, and Pawlenty could be in trouble if President Trump decides to go against him (Pawlenty was a frequent Trump critics in 2016). While obviously coming with universal name recognition, Pawlenty never won 50% of the vote in the Gopher State, and isn't beloved as a former governor like, say, Arne Carlson is, so I'd wager if Swanson takes on Pawlenty she'd probably win, but there's enough question marks here to think he might win (particularly against Murphy). (Previous Ranking: 8)
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| Greenwich Selecman Ned Lamont (D-CT) |
There is no public polling of this race despite the primary fast-approaching, but I'd make the argument that Connecticut is the most vulnerable state currently held by the Democrats, and it's largely to do with Gov. Dan Malloy, who is wildly unpopular and certainly would have lost the general, if not the primary, had he run. The Democrats seem to have coalesced around former Greenwich Selectman Ned Lamont, who gained national headlines when he beat Sen. Joe Lieberman in the 2006 primary, and then still went on to lose to him when Lieberman ran as an independent in the general. On the Republican side, the party has endorsed Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, whom I'd argue is the frontrunner, though without public polling it's hard to tell. Boughton vs. Lamont could be an interesting race as Boughton feels in the vein of successful blue-state GOP Governors like Charlie Baker & Larry Hogan, siding with moderate viewpoints on most issues while their opponents run far-left. Lamont is hardly anyone's idea of an ideal candidate (there's still a lot of bad feelings over his 2006 primary), but the D behind his name may matter more than normal this cycle. (Previous Ranking: 11)
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| Attorney General Mike DeWine (R-OH) |
Of all of the Obama/Trump states (at least Obama in 2012), it seems like the one that most pundits are conceding might now be too Republican to be attainable for a 2020 Democratic nominee is Ohio. Indeed, while Ohio has long held a romance as being the "quintessential" swing state, it conceded that title to Florida (or perhaps soon Pennsylvania) when the millennium struck, and other than Obama, they've only delivered Democrats properly good news in 2006, when Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown won the governor's mansion and a Senate seat, respectively. While Brown seems assured of victory headed into November, the governor's mansion is a bit more right-leaning, and most had thought that Attorney General Mike DeWine (oddly enough the man that Brown bested in 2006), has been the frontrunner for most of the race. However, in recent weeks we've seen stronger polling from former Attorney General Richard Cordray (the man whom DeWine beat in 2010, making this something of a rematch albeit for a different office), and we're at the point where the lead is teeter-tottering. Ohio may have moved right, but it isn't so right that it could be immune to a wave, and on top of Trump potentially being a liability to DeWine, he also has to struggle with the complicated legacy of John Kasich, who is a member of his party but is more popular with Democrats than Republicans according to polls. This puts DeWine in a position where he can't align himself with Kasich without risking his right flank, while distancing himself too much risks swing voters who might go with Cordray instead. All of this is to say that this race is messy, and primed for an upset if the current environment sticks around. (Previous Ranking: N/A)
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| House Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) |
We now move from states where I think we're in tossup territory or slight lean territory to states that I think are more favorable to the party out of party than the party in power. We are one week out from the primary in the Wolverine State, and both sides are still campaigning heartily though I'd say there are tentative frontrunners. Attorney General Bill Schuette has led the field for the entire cycle, and while Lt. Gov. Brian Calley is a credible opponent, he's never been able to gain a footing against Schuette. On the Democratic side the lead has fluctuated a bit more fluidly, with former House Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer generally leading, albeit by narrower margins against businessman Shri Thanedar and a (surging) Abdul El-Sayed, who is an executive in Detroit City Government. Assuming it's Whitmer vs. Schuette, the Democrats should prevail; Whitmer has led in almost every poll, frequently by a healthy enough spread that the margin-of-error can't be counted upon. Thanedar and El-Sayed have narrower margins in polling, and in el-Sayed's case, he's behind Schuette. This could potentially have Schuette win in a squeaker (lest we forget Trump won this state two years ago by an insanely narrow margin), but Whitmer has to be feeling pretty good about being the state's next governor should she prevail in the primary. (Previous Ranking: 5)
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| Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R-NV) |
Oh what I wouldn't give for some more polling here. After a pair of blowout wins in the primaries, Attorney General Adam Laxalt and Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak are now facing off in a general election that has only seen four polls the entire cycle. The polls indicate a close race, and it should be noted that Laxalt has some advantages here. After all, he's won statewide, and he doesn't have an unpopular governor to defend (Brian Sandoval remains quite well-liked in the Silver State). Plus, he's the grandson of former Sen. Paul Laxalt (and weirdly the son of Sen. Pete Domenici, something I had never realized until now), so he's a known commodity in the state. Still, it's hard to see a state that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 going for a Republican in an open seat race, particularly with a Republican incumbent. The Democrats have not held the governor's mansion in in almost 20 years (Bob Miller was the last governor), and I feel like the leftward lean of the state coupled with Trump fatigue will help Sisolak even if Laxalt will keep it close. (Previous Ranking: 4)
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| State Treasurer Terry Hayes (I-ME) |
Here's the deal-the Democrats almost certainly would win this race if it was a two-person race. Attorney General Janet Mills is a superb candidate, I'd argue a better fit in every way for the state than businessman Shawn Moody, a Republican in a similar vein to incumbent Gov. Paul LePage, who is one of the country's most unpopular governors. Add in that this is a Hillary state that tends to seesaw a bit on their governors' party, and you've got a recipe for a victory for the Democrats. The problem is, this all would have been backed up by a similar logic in 2010 and 2014, but the third party candidacies of Eliot Cutler allowed Paul LePage to win the governorship with a plurality of the vote, as the left split their support. That's at risk of happening in 2018, with Maine State Treasurer Terry Hayes running as an independent, potentially upsetting the race and splitting the vote once again (she seems in the mold of a moderate-to-left-leaning candidate similar to Cutler). My gut says that the left will have had enough of throwing away their votes by 2018, and that Moody won't have the same luck as LePage, but it's entirely possible that Mills is yet another Maine Democrat who falters to an independent. Still, though, I'd rather be Mills than Moody or Hayes at this juncture (this is another race I'd love some more polling). (Previous Ranking: 9)
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| Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) |
The top three seem near-certain to flip parties, and the reason in New Mexico is pretty simple-the Democrats have literally every box headed in their direction. For starers, this is a Hillary state, with a two-term outgoing governor (Susana Martinez) whose approval ratings are in the toilet. The Democrats got their preferred candidate in Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is largely scandal-free (sometimes a problem for Land of Enchantment Democrats), and is taking on her fellow congressman Steve Pearce, who is too liberal to win statewide. Polling bears this out with Lujan Grisham frequently pulling double-digit leads that show her trouncing Pearce. It's a real question as to why Pearce even ran here to begin with, as he was assured reelection (and quite frankly his seat could now flip as well); perhaps at age 70 he wanted to go out swinging for the fences rather than be stuck in DC in the minority for a few more years before retirement. Either way, Lujan Grisham has a strong lead in New Mexico. (Previous Ranking: 2)
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| Gov. Bill Walker (I-AK), with Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott (D-AK) |
Alaska is a weird state for a lot of reasons politically, not least of which because it's one of the few states where Independents can occasionally do very, very well. This was the case in 2014, when a hybrid ticket of Independents and Democrats allowed for Bill Walker to become the surprise governor of the state. Four years later, Walker is wildly unpopular and seems certain to lose, in big part because that hybrid ticket isn't going to happen. Democrats have a top tier candidate in former Sen. Mark Begich, who will surely split the vote with Walker in the general election, handing the seat to the Republicans (primary still happening there, though it will probably be State Sen. Mike Dunleavy). One has to assume that either Begich or Walker will call the other one's bluff soon, as they're about to commit political suicide if they both go to the general election, and indeed it's probable that Walker should drop out (polling shows that in a one-on-one race Begich would best Dunleavy, winning the governor's mansion for the Democrats for the first time since 1998). Until one of them calls the other's bluff, though, this is an easy flip for the Republicans, possibly their only flip in November if the year continues well for the Democrats. (Previous Ranking: 10)
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| JB Pritzker (D-IL) |
Man I wish JB Pritzker wasn't the Democratic nominee in Illinois. Pritzker is about as close to a Democratic Rick Scott as one can get, and his burning of money in the Illinois' gubernatorial race is what's wrong with American politics. I say this mostly because Pritzker is already marked as a bright spot for Democrats this fall, with him certain to best unpopular incumbent Gov. Bruce Rauner, whose administration is tainted by scandal and who has disapproval ratings that top 60% (you don't win elections with those kinds of numbers). Pritzker's victory could be big enough to carry some down-ballot Democrats if Republicans get discouraged (an under-reported aspect of the four competitive House races in the Land of Lincoln), which may make him more palatable to the Democrats who actively rooted against him in the primary, but make no mistake-he's about to become the next governor of Illinois. (Previous Ranking: 3)
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