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| Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) |
With Cochran's resignation and the upcoming retirement of Sen. Orrin Hatch, only one senator (Patrick Leahy of Vermont) served in the Upper Chamber before 1980. It's always worth noting these passings of the baton, and while several other sitting members of Congress did serve in the 1970's (Don Young, Chuck Grassley, Ed Markey, Rick Nolan, Jim Sensenbrenner, and Richard Shelby), it feels in a lot of ways like the sunsetting of those who served in Congress in the pre-Reagan era with Cochran's departure, as he is the longest-serving current member of Congress.
Cochran's retirement also sets off a bit of a chain on Capitol Hill. It is probable now that Sen. Richard Shelby will take over as chairman of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, though Cochran is staying on to oversee 2018's appropriations process. It also means that with both Sen. Hatch's retirement & Cochran's resignation that come January the Republicans could see Sen. Chuck Grassley as third-in-line to the presidency, as he will become the most senior member of the Senate Republicans. That is, of course, assuming that the Republicans stay in the majority, which becomes more of a question mark with Cochran's resignation.
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| State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-MS) |
A lot of the Democrats' chances in picking up Cochran's seat in a similar fashion to neighboring Alabama rests in the controversial politicking of State Sen. Chris McDaniel. In 2014, McDaniel ran a hard-right Tea Party challenge to Cochran and very nearly bested him (it was in fact Democrats who came out in droves to save the comparatively more moderate Cochran from enduring the fate of Richard Lugar before him). Rumor has it that Cochran waited for McDaniel to be forced to file against fellow Sen. Roger Wicker for the seat before ultimately resigning, as McDaniel will now have to quickly drop out of his challenge to Wicker to go for the more appealing, open race (which he'll have better odds in). McDaniel's past comments about slavery and women are rife for opposition research, but he clearly enjoys a strong support amongst the base of the GOP, and would be extremely formidable in the primary, to the point where Gov. Phil Bryant could conceivably appoint him to the seat knowing that he's already the frontrunner in the primary to begin with, and he'd gain some incumbency.
Of course, Bryant has other options. Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves would be toward the top of his list of replacement candidates, as Reeves is something of a rising star in the state. Bryant could also pick one of the three GOP House members to get a promotion (Rep. Steven Palazzo seems a very strong on-paper option), or may take a play out of Wendell Anderson's playbook and appoint himself. After all, he's term-limited, in his early 60's, and was being asked by both President Trump and Sen. McConnell to consider such a move. Of course, he may not want to pull that thread, as Wendell Anderson's decision to basically appoint himself didn't end well for him (or his party). And of course, there's no indication that Bryant or Reeves would be able to succeed where Luther Strange did not, as McDaniel arguably would be competitive against both of them.
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| Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) |
The big winner of this decision, of course, then, is Roger Wicker. The junior (soon-to-be senior) senator from Mississippi was about to see how powerful Steve Bannon's pull in Republican politics still was, or if McDaniel could take him on where he failed in 2014. With this seat now open, it's near certain that McDaniel will jump over to the easier race, and Wicker will be able to easily win his nomination.
In fact, Wicker probably gains on both fronts, as most of the Democrats (there are three at least reputable challengers to him) running will probably also jump into the open seat primary. A strengthened Wicker could be a blessing to McDaniel and to the GOP in general, as it's extremely rare when a state hosts two Senate races at once for them to split parties. Indeed, you have to go back to 1966 to see such an event, when Republican Sen. Strom Thurmond won reelection while Democratic Gov. Fritz Hollings won a tight race in a Senate special in South Carolina. Wicker could use his war chest to drive up Republican turnout in the general, and with the GOP mounting two strong campaigns against the Democrats' one, that could make the difference if this gets close.
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| State Rep. Omeria Scott (D-MS) |
The Democrats obviously have an opening here, though. Recent memories of Alabama (and potentially next week's special election in Pennsylvania) show that they can be competitive in typically red regions of the country, and it's doubtful that Chuck Schumer is going to leave a race on the table when he's still got a steep climb to pick up two more seats to win the majority. Therefore, expect to have a first-tier candidate run here...though the problem may be that they have too many.
That's because the Democrats were already starting to have a problem in the Mississippi Senate primary where they had three relatively decent candidates running: State House Minority Leader David Baria, State Rep. Omeria Scott, and venture capitalist (and husband of actress Sela Ward) Howard Sherman. While one of these candidates may stay in the race, if all three were to jump ship that could be a disaster for the Democrats for three reasons.
First, this would leave them without a candidate against Wicker, and in a year where Republicans have randomly lost dozens of ruby red special elections, that's a risky game to play. Second, the Mississippi special race is a jungle primary where only the top two candidates make it to the general. It's entirely possible that the Democrats split their percentage of the vote, allowing a general election that would pit Reeves and McDaniel against each other, leaving no chance of a pickup.
The third issue would be whether or not the Democratic Primary may shoot itself in the foot by choosing the liberal Scott rather than the more moderate Baria. It's worth noting that Alabama wouldn't have been an option if the Democrats had picked someone who wasn't a moderate (Doug Jones played just as much of a role in that win as Roy Moore), and Scott's voting record and more liberal bent could hurt her. It also has to be said, though it's unfortunate we have to-no African-American Democrat has won a Senate seat in the Deep South, ever, and Scott could easily win with the primary electorate that will be predominantly African-American, but face impossible odds in a general election in such a conservative state.
Probably the best case scenario would be Scott staying in the race against Wicker, driving up black vote turnout, and Baria (or, in a perfect world, someone even better like statewide officeholders Attorney General Jim Hood or Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley) running in the open seat. Having two credible candidates on both sides driving up different portions of the electorate would be a huge coup for the Democrats, but it's unlikely that Scott would want to take on the harder race when she's got the better shot in a primary than Baria.
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| Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) |
Cochran is not the only senator that has been plagued by rumors of retirement, and indeed he has a longtime colleague that has been missing just as many votes this year as he struggles with his health: longtime Arizona Sen. John McCain. McCain has to stay on until June 1st of this year before he will trigger a special election (a clock I'm suspecting he's trying to run out), but it's probable Cochran was hoping to do the same and couldn't, and I suspect attention will now be pushed toward McCain and whether he will resign as well.
Unlike Mississippi, McCain's seat doesn't need to have a specific GOP challenger to be competitive. The state nearly went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (it was closer than traditional swing states like Ohio or Iowa), and an open seat would present a superb opportunity for the Democrats to take both seats in one full-swoop (giving Chuck Schumer another avenue toward a majority). This is almost certainly why McCain is waiting until June 1st (or later) to leave office, giving the Republicans a more favorable presidential election to stand for reelection than a dicey-looking midterm in 2018. Still, though, as Cochran pointed out yesterday, there are still a lot of questions surrounding this year's Senate races.
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