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| Sen-designate Tina Smith (D-MN) |
While in a perfect world, Franken wouldn't have had to resign, the DFL and Smith in particular couldn't be in a better position for this to be happening provided it had to happen. For starters, as Doug Jones and Ralph Northam have proven in the past couple of weeks, being a Democrat right now is an easier road than having to defend a very unpopular president. Tina Smith may not have had the electoral experience of other figures like Rebecca Otto and Lori Swanson, but it's probable she won't need it. When she decided to run for the seat in her own right (which surprised some, but I will brag that I predicted that's exactly what she'd do), it's likely she also got herself elected in the process.
This is because Smith is going to start out the nominal frontrunner in a state that is famous for going with establishment frontrunners as their nominees. For all of the talk about Minnesota being a state with a political wild streak (Jesse Ventura, Al Franken), by-and-large their most successful statewide Democrats are suburban or Iron Range pols who resemble someone you'd see at your local PTA meeting, and act that way. Amy Klobuchar has perfected such a mold (and in the process become the state's most successful politician), but everyone from Mark Dayton to Steve Simon to Walter Mondale has fit this bill. Smith's position as an incumbent may be arbitrary, but it's going to open her up to the establishment, as well as millions of dollars and access to the DSCC/Emily's List. That's going to be difficult to overcome.
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| Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN) |
Perhaps the most important moment in Smith's quest to go from an appointed to an elected incumbent happened moments after her press conference-Rep. Keith Ellison dropped out of the running to stand in a primary against her. He was her biggest challenge in a primary, even if he would have been a lightning rod for the Democrats in the general election, due to his enormous national platform as DNC Vice Chair and as an active voice in Congress. His issue in running statewide is that Ellison represents the most liberal district in the state and has the politics to match, which is going to be a struggle with winning over vast swaths of Northeastern Minnesota, which is a requirement for any Democrat running in the state, as Duluth is still a big component in a successful statewide run for a DFL candidate (for those that quibble, keep in mind that Hillary Clinton won the state by a thin margin, but still clobbered Trump in St. Louis County even though she underperformed Dayton, Klobuchar, and Franken's last runs in the region by a 20-point deficit, and a 40-point deficit in Klobuchar's case). Smith's more moderate politics will help her in running up that tally similar to Dayton/Klobuchar/Franken, but would have been costly in a primary against Ellison.
With Ellison out, the list of Democrats who would have a profile high-enough to compete with Smith is short. He was the last member of the congressional delegation to withdraw from consideration, so the state's five members in the House are out, as is likely State Auditor Rebecca Otto and St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman (both of whom are running for governor). Secretary of State Steve Simon and State Rep. Ilhan Omar are both quite popular with the base, but are probably too new to their positions to make a run for this spot. Minneapolis Mayor Betsy Hodges is leaving office in ignoble fashion, and State House Minority Leader Melissa Hortman seemed pretty inclined to defer to Smith based on statement's she had made heading up to the appointment (plus, she's young enough that she can make a play for governor in 4-8 years if she wants). That really leaves only Attorney General Lori Swanson, who would be a challenge for Smith, but is also seen as a leading candidate for a governor's race that still lacks shape. Swanson would be a potential threat to Smith, but it's probably going to be easier for her to dominate in the MN DFL Primary, especially if the DFL Caucuses next summer pick someone off the wall like they did in 2000 (when State Sen. Jerry Janezich won the DFL endorsement, but then got clobbered against then-Auditor Mark Dayton in the binding primary) and Swanson decides to pull a move out of Dayton's winning playbook and just have the actual voters, rather than the grassroots, decide who the nominee is. It's entirely possible that, despite this being a chance-of-a-lifetime for a state with a strong Democratic bench, Smith gets this race to herself.
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| Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) |
Rumors abound that former Gov. Tim Pawlenty is considering a race for the US Senate against Smith for this seat, and that would be intriguing. No Republican has won statewide since Pawlenty secured a second term in 2006, and as a result he's arguably the best candidate the GOP could hope for in the state. That being said, Pawlenty also has to see that the 2018 environment could be toxic for him, and his approval ratings weren't particularly solid when he left office (keep in mind Dayton still succeeded him in 2010, a notoriously bad year for the Democrats). Pawlenty also can't feel good about the recent GOP losses endured by Ed Gillespie and Roy Moore, and may wait for a less imposing environment.
Without Pawlenty, it's hard to see an obvious candidate who could take on Smith, especially if Trump remains a lightning rod. Rep. Jason Lewis has expressed interest, but he's brand new to his district and his running would surely open up his seat to the Democrats, potentially giving Angie Craig a spot in the House by default. It says something that the far more inviting governor's race has so far failed to gain a major Republican contender-it might just be that Republicans don't see 2018 as a year they can succeed statewide in the Gopher State.
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| State Sen. Michelle Fischbach (R-MN) |
This is perhaps the biggest point-of-contention for Democrats and Republicans alike, or at least the biggest one for elections nerds. The Minnesota Constitution doesn't allow Dayton to pick a new LG, but instead the State Senate President becomes the Lieutenant Governor. This would make Republican State Sen. Michelle Fischbach the next lieutenant governor of the state, meaning that, should Dayton pass away, the entire state would be under Republican control. This isn't just a hypothetical-Dayton is currently battling prostate cancer, and is in his 70's. Even brief Republican control of the state could have lasting consequences, considering that the GOP has not had full control of the state legislature since before 1980.
There is another side to this coin, though. Provided Dayton stays in good health, the lieutenant governorship in Minnesota is relatively weak (it just requires a pulse), and has only gained more profile since the Ventura administration due to the governor giving the role more power; it's difficult to imagine the Democratic Dayton giving much more than ceremonial tasks to the Republican Fischbach. Still, though, it's entirely possible that Fischbach will be required to resign her Senate Seat to take over the job as lieutenant governor (the Attorney General is looking into the Constitution for this, as there doesn't appear to be a lot of precedent here), which would put the GOP in a bind because, because provided that Karla Bigham wins the open State Senate special election, the State Senate is 34-33 in favor the GOP. Fischbach resigning would put her seat in play; though it's traditionally Republican, it has voted for Democrats in the past (such as former State Sen. Majority Leader Dean Johnson), and special elections have been very kind to Democrats in the Trump Era. A third option could be the state legislature calling for a special election and temporarily electing a Democratic State Senate President to succeed Tina Smith (someone like former Senate President Sandy Pappas), but again-that's unprecedented. Basically at least one party is bound to be screwed here...it's just not entirely clear which one.
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| Attorney General Lori Swanson (D-MN) |
In the background of all of this, the DFL is surely going to be conducting a primary for governor soon, and so far it feels like a bit of a jumble. This is based more anecdotally than anything else since no polls have been conducted, but no candidate seems to be setting the DFL on fire right now. State Auditor Rebecca Otto's three terms statewide have never endeared her to the populace in the way you'd expect, Tim Walz is likely too conservative to be a major player in a competitive Democratic Primary (plus, members of Congress always struggle jumping into the governor's race), and quite frankly I keep forgetting that Chris Coleman is running for governor (and Democratic St. Paul Mayors are notorious for never getting promoted).
This is probably why I think at the end of the day this is going to happen (this is my current 2018 prediction): Smith wins the nomination for the DFL without any serious opposition in a primary (maybe a token state legislator or two that she dispatches easily). Lori Swanson decides to run for governor, and thanks to her considerable popularity in the state (particularly in the Iron Range), she wins the nomination, and is able to dispatch the Republican's weak bench to succeed Dayton. Aided by Klobuchar and Swanson's coattails, all down-ballot statewide Democrats, including Smith, are able to win their races, and probably the DFL takes the State Senate and makes a sharp inroad into the State House (a majority there's a steep climb). While there might be the temptation in a swing state for voters to split their ballot between the two parties for the Senate, historically this doesn't have a lot of precedence (South Carolina in 2014, California in 1992, and Minnesota in 1978 all had dual Senate elections, all went for one party); in fact, you have to go back to 1966 to a year where two Senate races were hosted in the same state and senators from different parties won. The only thing I'm genuinely stumped on is Fischbach, who clearly only wants that job if she can keep her State Senate seat or get a peak at Dayton's medical records. It's entirely possible that she can try to make the ceremonial job a platform for a gubernatorial run herself (she's not currently running, but she'd be a strong candidate), but being under Dayton would require at least some geniality between the two which won't fly in a GOP primary. I personally would opt for the quick special session because I don't like ambiguity, but it has to be noted that at least for the time being the decision on Fischbach's future is going to be decided by Lori Swanson, who doesn't want to alienate the DFL right about now as she's surely running for something in 2018.
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