 |
| Sen-Elect Doug Jones (D-AL) |
Republicans will obviously have a lot of Monday-morning quarterbacking looking at these numbers, considering Doug Jones victory was only by roughly 1.6-points (it's hard to imagine Moore even getting the state to do a recount, much less winning in one, so it feels like the man who has been in denial about everything he's done in the past just couldn't come to grips with giving a concession last night). After all, the GOP can (correctly) claim that they would have won if Luther Strange or Mo Brooks had emerged victorious from the primary. They can accurately state that if Robert Bentley had chosen, say, Martha Roby or Jim Merrill we wouldn't be having this conversation. They can claim that the Washington Post article talking about Moore's sexual misconduct with teenagers while he was in his thirties is not something that can be duplicated in any other races (good lord, I hope not). They can say that Steve Bannon cost them the election, or Mitch McConnell, and the list goes on and on and on, and in some ways they're right. It has been said for months that the Democrats would need a miracle to pull off Alabama, and that wasn't a lie, but that doesn't negate what happened last night.
For starters, Jones was a good candidate when the Democrats needed a good candidate. Put in pretty much any Senate candidate to run in Alabama in the past twenty years in place of Jones, and Moore wins by ten points last night. Democrats oftentimes say "run someone decent every single time, because you never know when a Republican will fall," and it certainly helped to have a Civil Rights hero on the side of the left last night. It also mattered that the voter enthusiasm gap was so high. Doug Jones got 93% of the raw vote total Hillary Clinton achieved in the Yellowhammer State last night, while Roy Moore only got 48% of the Trump vote. It mattered that disproportionately African-American voters got out and voted in record numbers (according to exit polls, black voters turned out in stronger numbers last night than they did in the 2012 presidential election, unheard of for a special election, or even a midterm). This didn't happen on its own-this took an incredibly strong campaign by Jones, combined with a horribly weak one for the Republicans. It is not likely to be duplicated in 2018, but perhaps it doesn't need to be-few federal Democrats needed for a majority will have to run for reelection in a state that is as red as Doug Jones, and no Democrat that will (such as Joe Manchin, Collin Peterson, or Heidi Heitkamp) will have to start as far back as he did.
 |
| President Donald Trump (R-NY) |
It cannot be underscored what a big loss this is for Donald Trump and Steve Bannon. It would have been very easy for them to play the part of Mitch McConnell, staying on the sidelines of the race, giving prickly observations about how Moore will probably be seated, but he's not sure how he'll act yet. McConnell's dignity isn't intact after this race (he didn't outright reject Moore like his colleagues Jeff Flake & Richard Shelby), but he sure as hell didn't go all-out for him on Election Eve like Donald Trump did, and while this was a no-win situation for the Majority Leader, it was also a situation with a silver lining both ways. McConnell doesn't have to saddle the likes of Dean Heller and Martha McSally with Roy Moore in their caucus. Trump's inability to make a dent in this race, first in the primary and then in the general, is a huge blow to the president, and shows that his endorsement isn't nearly as valuable as many presume it is. One could argue that he might be able to sink someone's career (look at Flake or Bob Corker), but he can't really save one, and that has to be considered by Republicans looking at 2018 with a lot more fear after last night.
Steve Bannon, on the other hand, is surely quivering right now. No one went harder for Roy Moore than the former White House advisor, and had banked so much of his future & reputation on winning the race. Keep in mind-if Moore had won, Bannon would have another senator to poke at Mitch McConnell, and might have led a national campaign to replace McConnell in 2019 with a team of candidates like Kelli Ward and Marsha Blackburn. Now Bannon has a major black mark on his record, and could struggle in terms of getting his candidates attention. He's still a player, but like Trump he might be more someone who can inflict harm in primaries more than actually win general elections. That's a problem for someone who craves actual power in DC.
 |
| Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) |
The Democrats wanted badly for people to focus on making last night a referendum on Roy Moore and the future of Alabama, and they succeeded on that front, but they got the very intended side benefit of winning the hardest seat of 2018, and they did it before the year even started. Going into 2018, it was said that the Democrats would have a very good shot at fifty seats: hold all of the incumbents, and then elect two Democratic congresswomen (Jacky Rosen & Kyrsten Sinema) in the marginal Nevada & Arizona, respectively. What was a huge challenge was getting the third seat. To get to that math, it involved not winning reelection nor taking a seat that was close in 2018, but taking seats in places like Texas or Tennessee (or hoping for a surprise opening, which is always bad play). Suffice it to say, until last night, no one could say with a straight face that the Democrats had a legitimate shot at taking both houses of Congress next year.
That's no longer the case, as Doug Jones has won them that seat (it cannot be underscored enough that Jones doesn't have to stand for reelection next year-he has been elected to a three year term so he won't need to run again until 2020). That means that the Democratic plan for a victory is simple-reelect every Democrat who currently holds office (or is about to, as is the case with Minnesota), and then promote Sinema & Rosen. It's not easy, but it's a very plausible plan. It's also worth noting, though, after last night, that Democrats have a solid formula to win in other, redder states, that could expand the field a bit next year. I wouldn't doubt that Phil Bredesen and in particular Beto O'Rourke in Texas will be getting considerably more attention, as if Jones can win, they plausibly could with a similar voting makeup in their states. But the path of least resistance is the Reelect-All/AZ/NV option, and Doug Jones made that a real opportunity last night.
 |
| Mayor Stephanie Miner (D-NY) |
In addition to perhaps expanding the map, one has to wonder if last night will matter for recruitment or retirement. It's worth noting that Donald Trump's approval in exit polls was 48%, a pretty damn low number for a state he won so handily last year. But perhaps more damning for the GOP at large is that last night Roy Moore achieved only 48% of the vote, so basically everyone who didn't approve of the president voted for Doug Jones. That's unlikely to be the case everywhere nationally, but it was pretty much the case in the Virginia General Assembly races a month ago, and as a result Republicans and Democrats in bluer territory may be questioning their ability to win next year. Someone like Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, whose district only went to Trump by one-point last year and who has had anemic fundraising so far this year, could see last night as a sign he needs to get out before he's kicked out. And people like Tim Pawlenty or Rick Scott who are toying with Senate races in swing states may rethink their plans, for fear of becoming Tommy Thompson circa 2012.
Jones is also proof that having a good candidate at the right time is important, and that Democrats may be headed for a-characteristic success next year. I did an article last week chronicling ten Democrats who might consider mounting a late campaign with Trump's approval ratings so poor nationally. After last night, this is just more fuel-to-the-flames for these candidates to make the plunge into the race. Someone like Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner, for example, who has been publicly toying for several weeks with jumping into the NY-24 race, can't get a more underlined message that 2018 would be friendly to her than last night. I anticipate Chuck Schumer & Nancy Pelosi to be making a lot of calls this morning on candidates who have been wavering to jump into their races, and with good reason-if last night proved anything, it is that candidates still matter.
 |
| DNC Chair Tom Perez (D-MD) |
But the greatest message to the Democratic Party after last night is surely that they need to invest considerably more resources into getting African-Americans to the polls. It has been commonly accepted wisdom by some Democrats for years that investing in registering African-American voters doesn't pay enough dividends; because statistically, black voters vote in lower percentages than white voters, and so a push for college-educated white women is nearly always what you hear from the DNC (much to the chagrin of yours truly, who has always thought the approach taken in Alabama last night was the right strategy). Alabama proved last night that simply wasn't the case. Were it not for the incredible push not only to vote for a Democrat in terms of percentage of the population (97% of black women who voted voted for Jones), but overall turnout as all the top-performing counties in the state were in majority black counties, Roy Moore would be the next senator from the state of Alabama. Black voters delivered the Democratic Party their victory last night, and the DNC would be wise to try and duplicate that success in 2018.
After all, next year Democrats have solid candidates similar to Jones running for governor in Georgia, Maryland, South Carolina, and Alabama (yes, it's back again-Sue Bell Cobb has to be insanely happy about last night as well), all states with 25% or higher of their population being African-American. Winning these states, especially ahead of redistricting, could be a huge coup for the party. Additionally, a huge boost in black voters in places like Tennessee, Florida, Ohio, Texas, and Missouri (all states with 10%+ black voters) could make the difference in close Senate races in those states. One could also look at Latino vote (which, while small in Alabama, was also up last night compared to white voters), as there are competitive Senate and/or gubernatorial races in places like Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Colorado where Latinos make up 20%+ of the vote. Tom Perez's main job for the next year is going to be to register as many persons-of-color as possible, as high turnout amongst these communities is achievable as is evidenced by the Jones' victory last night, and could give his party a decisive victory in a hopeful precursor to 2020.
No comments:
Post a Comment