In 2018, we will be seeing a potential windfall for the Democrats. Though there are still elections this November in Virginia and New Jersey that could change this count, the Democrats currently only have 15 governor's seats, while the Republicans have 34 (Alaska is currently represented by an Independent for those of you who can do basic math). As a result of this, the Republicans are in a uniquely bad position that they have to defend a number of open seats in places like Nevada, New Mexico, and Maine, all states that went for Hillary Clinton.
Governor's mansions have historically been more likely to flip back-and-forth than, say, Senate seats, which people are more likely to associate with presidential elections. Some of the leading states in our Senate countdowns, for example Kansas, Wyoming, and Mississippi (all of whom haven't elected a Democratic senator since I was born) have had Democratic governor's this century. States can occasionally just get fatigued with their current governor in a way that they don't with national senators (who are more able to link themselves to popular presidents or presidential candidates than others can), and governors by nature of having a major impact on people's day-to-day lives (particularly transportation and education, two things that people feel deeply passionate about that don't often make it into the national debate) can become very popular or unpopular even if their national party doesn't share the same fate. Plus, most states (not all-looking at you Iowa), have term limits that keep open seats more plentiful (open seat elections tend to be more competitive).
As a result of this quick turnaround, I'm combining this post into the five, rather than the ten, biggest droughts for both parties in terms of states as neither party suffers an 80+ moratorium like in Kansas for Democrats in the Senate. Like with the Senate, I'm only counting people who were "elected" as Democrats or Republicans, not independent leaners, party switchers, or lieutenant governors that made it onto the stage. Because I want to end with the longest-streak, let's start with the Republicans biggest dry spells:
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| Gov. Judy Martz (R-MT) |
Last Elected a Republican: 2000
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Judy Martz
Who Was the Last Republican to Serve: Judy Martz
Reason for Her Leaving?: Lt. Gov. Martz won a close race against State Auditor Mark O'Keefe, instantly falling in the shadow of a popular former governor Marc Racicot (who would go on to chair the RNC). She would face tough scandals throughout her time in office, particularly after she got a good deal on a real estate deal during her time as lieutenant governor (it was uncovered while she was governor) and when her chief of staff was forced to plead guilty to negligent homicide after a drunk driving accident. Suffice it say, she was so unpopular come 2004 she didn't even run for reelection, and was succeeded by Brian Schweitzer, whom she personally detested.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: In 2012, then-Attorney General Steve Bullock nearly lost to former Rep. Rick Hill (who served briefly and forgettably in Congress for two terms in the late 90's), by 1.56 points, a much closer race than was initially anticipated.
Stop the Streak?: Considering this was a solid Trump state, it's kind of surprising that this streak has continued like it has. The Republicans have a very good candidate in Attorney General Tim Fox, who arguably starts as the 2020 frontrunner with Bullock forced out by term limits.
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| Gov. Cecil Underwood (R-WV) |
Last Elected a Republican: 1996
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Cecil Underwood, the boy wonder turned elder statesman
Who Was the Last Republican to Serve: Jim Justice, who won as a Democrat in 2016 but switched parties a few weeks ago.
Reason for Him Leaving?: Justice obviously is still in office, but Underwood lost in 2000, the only Republican governor to lose that year. Underwood was never particularly unpopular, and thanks to a long block between his times in office (he was governor from 1957-61 and from 1997-2001) he managed to be both the youngest and oldest person to serve as Governor of West Virginia. Mostly the fluke was him being elected in the first place as West Virginia was still very blue on a statewide level in 1996, but a move by conservative Democrats to denounce their party's nominee Charlotte Pritt (who was far more liberal than your average WV Democrat) led to him making an unlikely comeback even as Bill Clinton won the state by 15 points.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: A special election in 2011 actually resulted in the Republicans closest shot (provided you don't count them winning by party switch this year), when State Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin barely lost to businessman Bill Maloney by 2.5 points, a much closer race than was expected as Tomblin was assumed to win this race handily.
Stop the Streak?: I mean, it's almost certain it does in 2020 unless Justice fouls things up. Statewide the Democrats have gone from holding all seats a decade ago to having just two. I'm sure if Justice is unpopular State Treasurer John Perdue might make a play, but I suspect that like Montana this state is soon to be off this list.
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| Rep. Michael Castle (R-DE) |
Last Elected a Republican: 1988
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Michael Castle
Who Was the Last Republican to Serve: Dale Wolf
Reason for Him Leaving?: Castle was term-limited out in 1992, and actually decided to play a game of musical chairs with Rep. Tom Carper, an act that was nearly duplicated again in 2000 were it not for the stubbornness of Bill Roth. Wolf knew he couldn't beat Carper, so he chose not to run even though it was likely he would have won the nomination. Castle would go on to suffer one of the most stunning defeats I've ever seen in politics, losing the 2010 Senate nomination to Christine O'Donnell even though it was certain the Delaware legend would have won the general election (O'Donnell lost it by a high margin)
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: Ruth Ann Minner, while the longest-serving governor in the history of the First State, was never particularly popular and struggled in her 2004 reelection, where she beat Superior Court Justice Bill Lee by just over 5-points.
Stop the Streak?: While the state isn't impervious to Republicans winning statewide (the State Treasurer and Auditor are both in the GOP), the governor's mansion may be tough in 2020 unless John Carney fouls things up, as he has been a popular longtime member of the Democratic Party in a state that likes to keep their politicians in office forever.
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| Gov. Victor Atiyeh (R-OR) |
Last Elected a Republican: 1982
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Victor G. Atiyeh
Who Was the Last Republican to Serve: Victor G. Atiyeh
Reason for Him Leaving?: Atiyeh was a wildly popular Republican, but was term-limited out of office in 1986, making way for a very long Democratic streak that included the man he walloped in the 1982 election, Ted Kulongoski. Despite living through three Republican administrations post-governorship and being generally well-liked, he never held another office, dying in 2014 at the age of 91.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: State Rep. Kevin Mannix came darn close in 2002, losing by less than three points to State Justice Kulongoski.
Stop the Streak?: The state is up in 2018, but thanks to a weird series of events Gov. Kate Brown just won reelection in 2016, making it questionable if the accidental governor is vulnerable. Secretary of State Dennis Richardson surely would be the best candidate, but he appears to be ignoring the race, probably thinking 2022 would be a better time to strike.
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| Gov. John Spellman (R-WA) |
Last Elected a Republican: 1980
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: John D. Spellman
Who Was the Last Republican to Serve: John D. Spellman
Reason for Him Leaving?: Spellman is our only Republican on this list who went out in the blaze of glory, losing reelection even while Ronald Reagan was clobbering nationally and in the Evergreen State. Spellman was blamed in a way Reagan wasn't that year for the sluggish economy, which hit Washington particularly hard.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: Oh, that would have to be the legendarily close election of 2004, when State Sen. Dino Rossi lost to Attorney General Christine Gregoire by 133 votes, the closest margin (percentage-wise) since the Civil War in a gubernatorial election. It's still not entirely clear who actually won the election, in my opinion, as Rossi led the recount up until the third hand-count. Whatever the results, he lost fair-and-square four years later to Gregoire.
Stop the Streak?: Probably not. Sec of State Kim Wyman and State Treasurer Duane Davidson are both fine candidates, but I can't help but think that current Gov. Jay Inslee will be succeeded by Attorney General Bob Ferguson, a Democrat. It's a near 40-year streak for a reason, after all.
And now the Democratic drought states:
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| Gov. Ann Richards (D-TX) |
Last Elected a Democrat: 1990
Who Was the Last Democrat to Win: Ann Richards
Who Was the Last Democrat to Serve: Ann Richards
Reason for Her Leaving?: Ann Richards wasn't going to go down without a fight, and that's what she did during the Republican Revolution of 1994. The beloved figure in Lone Star politics was no match for future President George W. Bush, who rode strong anti-Clinton sentiment (Richards and Bill Clinton were dear friends) to victory despite Richards being quite well-liked in Texas political circles.
Closest the Democrats Have Come Since: Outside of her 7-point loss to Bush in 1994, the only other time the Democrats kept it below double digits since was in 2006, when Gov. Rick Perry (never the most beloved figure in Texas), won a four-candidate battle which included Democratic Rep. Chris Bell.
Stop the Streak?: Weirdly the Democrats seem to have the better candidate in the Senate race, perhaps assuming that Gov. Greg Abbott will continue on in his position. However, as the state becomes more competitive nationally it only makes sense that the Democrats might make a play here, particularly as it's generally easier to flip an open statehouse than Senate seat.
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| Gov. Cecil Andrus (D-ID), right, greeting President Jimmy Carter |
Last Elected a Democrat: 1990
Who Was the Last Democrat to Win: Cecil Andrus
Who Was the Last Democrat to Serve: Cecil Andrus
Reason for Him Leaving?: Andrus, a beloved figure in Idaho politics, served four terms as governor (non-consecutively) and was also Secretary of Interior for President Carter. He was term-limited out in 1994, and weirdly enough died a week ago today at the age of 86 from lung cancer.
Closest the Democrats Have Come Since: It's a testament to Andrus that even after two terms and during the Republican Revolution, the nominee to succeed him Attorney General Larry Echo Hawk still lost by less than six points to then-Lt. Gov. Phil Batt. No Democrat has gotten particularly close to the office since (Hawk would go on to serve in the Obama administration).
Stop the Streak?: There isn't really a Democratic bench in the Gem State, which is fully apparent as an open seat in 2018 isn't attracting any major candidates. Boise Mayor Dave Bieter is always rumored to want to make the jump, but honestly he's been the Hamlet on the Kootenay for so long I'll believe it when I see it.
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| Gov. George Sinner (D-ND), left, with his son State Sen. George Sinner |
Last Elected a Democrat: 1988
Who Was the Last Democrat to Win: George Sinner
Who Was the Last Democrat to Serve: George Sinner
Reason for Him Leaving?: Sinner was term-limited in 1992, but actually surprisingly turned down a rare opportunity to make the transfer to national politics. In 1992, Sen. Quentin Burdick died, and Sinner appointed his widow to the seat. Rather than then running (he likely would have won), he encouraged outgoing Sen. Kent Conrad to pursue the seat, and in the process Sinner never ran again for public office (Conrad won and the Democrats have held the seat since).
Closest the Democrats Have Come Since: The Democrats haven't really come close since, but certainly their best shot was in 2000, when John Hoeven defeated then-Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp by ten points. Heitkamp was hurt pretty significantly when she announced a few weeks prior to the election that she was suffering from breast cancer. Until that point Heitkamp had been leading in the polls, but worries about her health hurt her campaign, and she ended up losing. Heitkamp's cancer went into remission, and both eventually ended up serving together in the US Senate from the state.
Stop the Streak?: Honestly, it'll probably be Heitkamp. I get the feeling that either in 2020 or 2024 Heitkamp will end her career by winning the office she's coveted her entire professional career, and taking back an election that probably would have been hers had her health maintained.
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| Gov. Scott Matheson, Sr. (D-UT) |
Last Elected a Democrat: 1980
Who Was the Last Democrat to Win: Scott Matheson, Sr.
Who Was the Last Democrat to Serve: Scott Matheson, Sr.
Reason for Him Leaving?: Matheson chose not to run in 1984, despite polls showing he could take a third term in office, and became a private practice attorney. The Matheson name is still gold in Utah politics, with his son Jim serving many years in Congress while his son Scott Jr. became a federal judge.
Closest the Democrats Have Come Since: 1988, when incumbent Gov. Norman Bangerter lost by less than 2-points to Salt Lake City Mayor Ted Wilson. Since then, it's been largely routes for the GOP.
Stop the Streak?: Weirdly, I actually think this is more likely than most of the seats on this list, and that's largely because Utah tends to have more moderate Republicans serve as governor (like Olene Walker and Jon Huntsman) than hardline conservatives. Jim Matheson, as well as Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams, have both been rumored for the seat in the past-either could make the play and win in the right year (lest we forget, Wyoming has not-so-long-ago had a Democratic governor).
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| Gov. Harvey Wollman (D-SD), left, with former Gov. Frank Farrar |
Last Elected a Democrat: 1974
Who Was the Last Democrat to Win: Richard Kneip
Who Was the Last Democrat to Serve: Harvey Wollman
Reason for Him Leaving?: Kneip left office slightly early in 1978 to become President Carter's Ambassador to Singapore, leaving his lieutenant governor Harvey Wollman in charge. Wollman at that point had already lost the Democratic nomination, and was forced to watch from the sidelines rather than be afforded a primary where he was the incumbent. Interesting fact: he was sworn in by his brother, and is still alive, living in a town of just 149 people called Frankfort.
Closest the Democrats Have Come Since: 1986, during the sixth-year-stretch of President Reagan's term in office, Kneip tried for another term but lost the primary to Lars Herseth, the son of former Gov. Ralph Herseth. Herseth would lose to George Mickelson by 3.6 points.
Stop the Streak?: Honestly, I think it'll take a Herseth again. While the Democrats have a reputable candidate in State Rep. Billie Sutton, an independent candidacy by Sioux Falls Mayor Mike Huetther would surely split the vote and lead to the Republicans winning once again (though it's open in 2018, they have two very strong candidates battling in the primary). Lars Herseth's daughter Stephanie, a former congresswoman and incoming president of Augustana College, is arguably the best chance the Democrats have in the state, and at the age of only 46, could easily gage a comeback in the future.
There you have it-weigh in on which streaks you think will be first to be overcome first in the comments!
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