The problem here, at least in terms of comparing apples to apples, is that the Republicans have several states that have not really undergone a major transformation in the same way as most now-blue states have, which is why we have to go a decade earlier for the Democrats 10th place finisher compared to the Republicans. This is largely a result of New England and the South, now considered some of the strongholds for the political parties, being relatively recent switches for their respective parties. As recently as 1988, for example, Democrats were regularly being elected statewide in places like South Carolina, West Virginia, and Arkansas, while Republicans could win over now-blue states such as Rhode Island and Vermont without stretching too hard. In an era where moderates were, in fact, moderates and just not people who spew vitriol (Ben Sasse is a sane human being, he's hardly a moderate), people like John Chafee or Zell Miller could win their seats without having to worry about primary challenges. In a world inundated with social media and 24-hour news channels dedicated to whether or not Susan Collins or Lisa Murkowski will change their votes, it's probable that this is a bygone era.
However, there is a region of the country that has not undergone a radical change in its political allegiances, at least as a whole, and that's the Great Plains/Rocky Mountains region of the country. Yes there are states like Nebraska/Montana/the Dakotas that have historically elected a number of Democrats to Congress even if they voted red on a statewide level, and yes we've seen the tides turn pretty ferociously in places like Colorado and New Mexico, but Kansas, Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho are all as red as they've ever been, and show few signs of changing. This results in them occupying most of Sunday's list. The Democrats don't really have that (the closest they come is New England, and even there they can't boast total control with New Hampshire and Maine regularly interrupting the balance), and while they might be able to get there with the West Coast migrating further and further left in recent decades, the Republicans will probably still have more safe Senate states unless the party loses moderate white voters in these regions, making them more competitive. Put simply, there are more Republican states than Democrats even if there are more Democratic voters than Republican ones currently in the country, which is why the Democrats have 11 senators in states that Trump won and the Republicans have only three senators in states that Hillary Clinton won, and yet the GOP still has the majority in a country where Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million ballots.
I want to put in a trio of caveats before I start, just like I did in the last article. One, you'll notice I'm focusing below on "elected," not appointed senators. There are cases on this list where the Republicans have held a Senate seat (through an appointment), but the Republicans haven't actually won the seat through an election. Historically it's considerably easier for the "minority party" to win a governor's mansion than it is to win a Senate race, so this makes sense. Secondly, I'm going to only include Republicans here, not necessarily Independents that lean Republican or that caucused with the Republicans; several states have healthy histories with independent candidates for office, but this is focused solely on the people who have R's behind their names. Finally, for margin-of-victories I'm only counting races between the victor and the Republican themselves-independents who came close don't count. That being said, I'll note any of these anomalies in the write-ups below.
 |
| Gov. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) |
Last Elected a Republican: 2000
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Lincoln Chafee
Reason for Him Leaving: Chafee lost reelection in 2006 to incumbent Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, though he would go on to be elected as governor four years later as an Independent.
Anyone Serve Since?: Nope-both Whitehouse and Jack Reed have served as senators since, with no changes.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: Really, the only close election since 2000 was Chafee's election loss in 2006, when he was bested by Whitehouse with a still robust margin of 7.03 points.
Stop the Streak?: Rhode Island is about as reliably blue as they come, though it occasionally elects Republican governors. Considering Gina Raimondo's lack of popularity and the weak bench for the GOP overall, that's probably the safer target at this point.
 |
| Sen. Jim Jeffords (I-VT) |
Last Elected a Republican: 2000
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Jim Jeffords
Reason for Him Leaving: Jeffords retired in 2006, though not before creating a seismic shift in Congress, switching the Senate from Republican to Democratic control by becoming an Independent.
Anyone Serve Since?: Nope-it's been Bernie Sanders and Patrick Leahy since.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: Though Vermont has historically been friendly to Republicans, the Democrats (or the Independents that run in their primaries but won't support their party) have won insanely high margins since. The closest the Republicans got with Scott Milne in 2016, and they still lost by 28.24 points.
Stop the Streak?: At some point one of the many Republican men that win the governor's mansion is going to try for the Senate, right? Either Jim Douglas or Phil Scott is young enough to make a play for Congress if Leahy or Sanders (two of the older members of the Senate) were to retire.
 |
| Sen. Slade Gorton (R-WA) |
Last Elected a Republican: 1994
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Slade Gorton
Reason for Him Leaving: Gorton lost by a microscopic margin to former Rep. Maria Cantwell in a race that made the Senate 50/50
Anyone Serve Since?: Nope-it's been Cantwell and Patty Murray since.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: Like I mentioned, the Gorton/Cantwell match in 2000 was one of the closest elections in American history, with Gorton losing by less than a tenth of a point.
Stop the Streak?: Honestly, the bigger question is if the Republicans will ever win the governor's mansion again, the rare case where a streak is actually longer. They occasionally win constitutional offices, but when it comes to the marquee races no one seems to be able to translate (and you can only go to Dino Rossi so many times).
 |
| Sec. Spencer Abraham (R-MI) |
Last Elected a Republican: 1994
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Spencer Abraham
Reason for Him Leaving: Abraham was one of many US Senators in 2000 who lost their incumbency during that very tight election year...though he got to lead the Energy Department for President Bush as a consolation prize.
Anyone Serve Since?: Though Carl Levin eventually retired, it's been Democrats since.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: The only time the Republicans have come close since 2000 was Abraham's loss that year, losing by 1.61 points. All of the other losses have been double-digits.
Stop the Streak?: Trump's victory, and the continued position of Rick Snyder as governor means that Michigan might not be a de facto loss for the Republicans. The big question is-can lightning strike twice for celebrities in the Wolverine State if Kid Rock is the nominee? This is the state on this list I think is the most at risk of dropping off.
 |
| Sen. Bill Roth (R-DE) |
Last Elected a Republican: 1994
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Bill Roth
Reason for Him Leaving: Roth may have been deeply loved at the time, but his old age wasn't enough against the equally-liked Thomas Carper.
Anyone Serve Since?: Democrats have actually held the governor's mansion since 1993, so the appointments have gone to the Democrats.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: Honestly, Delaware Republicans don't really have much to crow about when it comes to Senate races. Their closest race was Roth's defeat in 2000 by 11.83 points.
Stop the Streak?: The Republicans had their shot at one of these seats in 2010, when they idiotically skipped Rep. Mike Castle for Christine O'Donnell in the primary. Without Castle, there's no bench for the GOP in Delaware.
 |
| Sen. Al D'Amato (D-NY) |
Last Elected a Republican: 1992
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Al D'Amato
Reason for Him Leaving: D'Amato lost to Chuck Schumer in one of the nastiest elections of the cycle.
Anyone Serve Since?: Though New York has a bit of a history of Republican governors, the only opening happened under a Democrat, so no.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: Like Delaware, New York hasn't really been close in years. The closest the GOP has come since was D'Amato's loss in 1998, but even that was a 10.58 point margin (sorry Rick Lazio, but you're a footnote for a reason).
Stop the Streak?: New York's upstate region is somewhat fertile territory still for Republicans, but that's about it-New York City itself is far too liberal for either Senate seat to go red, even if one of them might open up if Sen. Gillibrand wins on a national ticket.
 |
| Gov. Pete Wilson (R-CA) |
Last Elected a Republican: 1988
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Pete Wilson
Reason for Him Leaving: Wilson left the Senate to become governor of California, defeating in a close election the woman who would eventually succeed him as senator.
Anyone Serve Since?: State Sen. John Seymour was appointed by Wilson himself to succeed him in the Senate, but lost quickly to Dianne Feinstein.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: Feinstein was almost one of many Democratic titans that nearly lost in 1994's Republican Revolution, besting Republican Rep. Michael Huffington (ex-husband of Arianna) by less than two points.
Stop the Streak?: Arguably California is only getting bluer, and the Republicans couldn't even get a candidate in the general in 2016. The GOP's bench is at risk of being wiped out in 2018 if the Democrats' aggressive plan against seven Hillary-won House seats (held by the GOP) actually works.
 |
| Gov. Lowell Weicker, Jr. (I-CT) |
Last Elected a Republican: 1982
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Lowell Weicker, Jr.
Reason for Him Leaving: Like so many of these senators, Weicker lost in his reelection race, here to then-Attorney General Joe Lieberman.
Anyone Serve Since?: While Democrats have held both seats since, it hasn't been continuous. Lieberman ended up going pretty far right on national security in his final term in office, endorsing Sen. John McCain for President and remaining an Independent after he was elected. Still, though, he never went fully to the Republicans.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: Weicker's loss in 1988 was by a razor-thin margin, losing to Lieberman by less than a point. Considered too moderate in that race, Weicker would switch to being an independent two years later and be elected the Nutmeg State's governor.
Stop the Streak?: I feel like Connecticut could soon be electing a Republican governor, and may not be that far off from welcoming moderate, business-minded Republicans like New Hampshire does. However, the Senate's going to be a tough sell, particularly with two incumbents who seem unlikely to go anywhere.
 |
| Sen. Charles Mathias (R-MD) |
Last Elected a Republican: 1980
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Charles Mathias
Reason for Him Leaving: Mathias retired in 1987 after 26 years in Congress.
Anyone Serve Since?: Nope-it's now up to four senators in 37 years, but all of them have been Democrats.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: Maryland is consistently one of the bluest states in the country (the Democrats took an open seat here last cycle by 25 points). The closest race was 2006's fight to succeed Sen. Paul Sarbanes, which Ben Cardin still won by over ten points.
Stop the Streak?: Popular Gov. Larry Hogan has actually done a pretty good job cementing his approval as a moderate in the state, and probably will win reelection from the Old Line State, but there's an epic history of Republican governors in blue states who can't compete when they try to translate their success over to a Senate seat (see also Bill Weld, Tommy Thompson, and Linda Lingle).
 |
| Sen. Clifford P. Case (R-NJ), center, with Sens. Hugh Scott and John Sherman Cooper |
Last Elected a Republican: 1972
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Clifford P. Case
Reason for Him Leaving: Case is the only guy on this list who actually lost not in a general election but in a primary, getting beat out from the right by Ronald Reagan speechwriter Jeffrey Bell.
Anyone Serve Since?: Yes-both Nicholas F. Brady (the future Treasury Secretary) and Jeff Chiesa were appointed as Republicans, but neither sought reelection and were quickly replaced by Democrats.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: Unlike a lot of these states, New Jersey Republicans have gotten close quite a few times, losing races by only three points in 1982, 1990, 1994, and 2000, the latter being technically the closest when Jon Corzine essentially bought himself a Senate seat against Rep. Bob Franks.
Stop the Streak?: It always feels like the New Jersey Republicans are just one scandal away from finally sinking the Senate basket, but then the rug is pulled out from under them. Sen. Menendez is under investigation right now and may have to resign, but I still wouldn't bet on the Republicans, who seem more concerned about losing their hold on some marginal House seats than making a play for a promotion.
 |
| Sen. Hiram Fong (R-HI), right, with President Dwight D. Eisenhower |
Last Elected a Republican: 1970
Who Was the Last Republican to Win: Hiram Fong
Reason for Him Leaving: The only Republican to ever serve in the Senate from Hawaii, Fong retired in 1977.
Anyone Serve Since?: No, though there have been several appointments, none of them have been Republicans.
Closest the Republicans Have Come Since: The only Republican to come remotely close to winning a Senate seat in all of the years since was Rep. Pat Saiki, losing in 1990 to Daniel Akaka by 9.37 points. Saiki had a fascinating career, winning a seat in Congress but losing in close races battles for the House, Senate, and governor's mansions, before finally becoming George HW Bush's SBA Administrator.
Stop the Streak?: Honestly, this isn't happening. Hawaii Republicans are non-existent (there are no Republicans in the State Senate and only six in the entire State Legislature). Even high-profile contenders like Charles Djou and Linda Lingle can't come close to winning anymore.
And there you have the list-which of these states do you think the streak is most at risk of ending (my vote's Michigan). Is anyone else struck by how many of these Republicans left the party after their Senate tenure (Jeffords, Weicker, Chafee)? Share your thoughts below!
No comments:
Post a Comment