Honorable Mention: If the Democrats can get Sen. Evan Bayh to run for the Senate in Indiana, this moves up the list pretty dramatically as Bayh has never lost in the state and has a mountain of cash he could rely upon. Until that happens, though, I'm leaving this at Number 11, as I don't see Rep. Baron Hill running the sort of campaign that could win this while Hillary Clinton loses the state.
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| Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) |
The recent announcement by Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) that she will challenge Sen. John McCain in the Grand Canyon State sent shock waves across the political sphere. While Kirkpatrick could be joined by Rep. Kyrsten Sinema if a recent redistricting case in the Supreme Court ends up moving her to a more difficult seat, but for now she has a clear field while McCain has to run to the right ahead of a potentially competitive primary. While the former presidential candidate is decidedly in the lead, two things should trouble the GOP: one, that McCain might have to run too-far-right ahead of a general election where Hillary Clinton will undoubtedly improve her standing in the increasingly Hispanic state, and two, there's always the chance that he loses that primary and the Democrats pull a Joe Donnelly in 2012, winning the seat after the GOP shoots themselves in the foot. It's happened a few times now (Delaware and Colorado in 2010 also come to mind), so Kirkpatrick stays in this position as a theoretical spoiler. (Previous Ranking: N/A)
9. North Carolina
I continue to keep the Tarheel State toward the bottom of my list, primarily because the Democrats are so reliant on one specific name in their race to defeat Sen. Richard Burr: that of his former colleague Kay Hagan. In perhaps the great mystery of the cycle, absolutely no one can tell if Hagan, who ran a dynamite campaign in 2014 that would have been easily victorious in 2012 or in a less polarized cycle, which 2016 likely will be, will actually want to return to such a rough race. She's a top tier campaigner and fundraiser, though, who would be aided by a formidable push by Hillary Clinton, though she won't have the advantage of a poor campaigner like she did last year with Thom Tillis (Burr, though pretty vanilla, should be better). If she runs, this state moves up the list. If she doesn't, I don't think the Democrats can take it. (Previous Ranking: 10)
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| Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) |
The DSCC, who has had a pretty awesome cycle so far in terms of recruitment, got their biggest setback last week when Montgomery County Board Commissioner Josh Shapiro turned down their entreaties to run in the primary, all but handing the nomination to former Rep. Joe Sestak. Sestak has frequently been a thorn in the sides of party leadership, going against an incumbent Democrat in the primary in 2010, oftentimes finding himself defying state and national leadership on specific issues or stances, and being a lousy fundraiser. His best and perhaps only hope is that Hillary Clinton does better than expected in the Keystone State, thus giving him some coattails to ride, but at this point it appears that Sen. Pat Toomey (R) may be the luckiest senator of the cycle. (Previous Ranking: 6)
7. Colorado
The Centennial State saw a massive swing to the GOP in 2014, with Sen. Mark Udall being defeated by Rep. Cory Gardner, but the Republicans seem to be having a tougher time in 2016. Their top choice remains Rep. Mike Coffman, who is still considering the race but seems to be leaning toward no if the tea leaves are to be believed. Coffman doesn't seem as strong on the stump as Gardner, and incumbent Michael Bennet has the benefit of both a presidential year turnout and knowing what not to do after Udall's disastrous run last year. The Republicans definitely could play here, particularly if a Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio were to win the state, but right now they are running without an obvious candidate, which is a tough thing to do. (Previous Ranking: 7)
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| Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) |
The Democrats dodged a massive bullet in Nevada this past week with Rep. Dina Titus deciding to run for reelection, thus giving Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto a clear shot at the nomination. The Republicans are hoping to do the same, as it seems increasingly likely that Gov. Brian Sandoval (their dream candidate) will pass but the very formidable Rep. Joe Heck will run in his place (Heck's seat, which went for President Obama both in 2008 and 2012, would become a major pickup opportunity for the DCCC if it opened up). This is definitely the Republicans best shot at picking up a Democratic seat, though if Hillary Clinton wins the state by the same margins as President Obama, it's difficult seeing a non-incumbent Republican winning here. (Previous Ranking: 3)
5. Ohio
Perhaps the most surprising poll this year was in the Buckeye State, where Quinnipiac showed former Gov. Ted Strickland (D) with a 9-point advantage over Sen. Rob Portman (R). While no one thinks this will be the spread (though never say never, am I right Blanche Lincoln?), this definitely illustrates that Portman, while a rock star in Washington, is still a bit of an unknown in his home state. Strickland still needs to dispatch an up-and-comer in PG Sittenfield (who is running a pretty solid campaign that looks a teensy bit too much like Marco Rubio in 2010 for comfort in the Strickland camp), but if he can it seems like this is a race with a lot of potential. Democrats need to win five seats to win back the Senate, this seat is in fifth place, and this is the quintessential swing state for the White House-Ohio voters may want to start investing in DVR's and Sirius immediately. (Previous Ranking: 8)
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| Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) |
If there's a runner-up to the Kay Hagan quandaries up-top for the Democrats, it's surely Granite State Gov. Maggie Hassan (D). She seems intent to not declare her candidacy against Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte until the end of the legislative session, but most pundits are betting she makes the plunge. Polling shows a tight race (the most recent being a 2-point gap in favor of Ayotte), but this race is in its infancy, and both Ayotte and Hassan will be getting plenty of press from presidential hopefuls looking for their endorsements. New Hampshire has been pretty blue on a federal level in presidential elections recently, and Ayotte has the Frank Guinta scandal to deal with as well-this is close, but Ayotte should be (and is) nervous. (Previous Ranking: 5)
3. Florida
There are three key questions in Florida. The first is surrounding the bid for the White House: with two native sons (one of whom is almost certain to be on the ticket), will that hurt Hillary Clinton enough to also bring down the Democrats down-ballot, or is Florida swinging Democratic enough that it can overcome a home-field advantage? The second is what does the GOP primary look like? I have a hard time believing that Rep. Ron DeSantis, a two-term congressman, gets a free shot at an open U.S. Senate seat in a state that continues to breed presidential contenders like weeds, particularly with a bench that looks as impressive as the Sunshine State's, but at this point Reps. Curt Clawson and David Jolly, along with former Sen. George Lemieux have been playing in the background long enough for DeSantis to gain an edge. The last question surrounds Alan Grayson, the liberal firebrand who continues to draw headlines for being the Democratic Michele Bachmann. If the congressman runs (as he seems wont to do), is he poison at this point and Democrats will realize that he can't possibly win the general (and would drag down the ticket), or will they go with politics over pragmatism in his bid to beat Rep. Patrick Murphy? I think they go with the latter, which is why this race is so high, but Grayson as the nominee bumps this to Safe Republican (think Christine O'Donnell in 2010). (Previous Ranking: 4)
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| Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) |
The Democrats have gained considerably since the last time we did this article, with a declared candidate in Rep. Tammy Duckworth, and perhaps most importantly, Reps. Cheri Bustos and Bill Foster deciding to run for reelection instead, thus almost avoiding a bloody primary. Rep. Robin Kelly is still considering the race, though like the Florida Republicans she better enter the race quickly, as Duckworth continues to gather a lot of steam. Whichever of them makes it to the general is going to be aided by Hillary Clinton winning the state, possibly by double-digits, a prospect that has to be nerve-wracking for Sen. Mark Kirk, who is running as a Republican in a state that rarely elects them in a presidential election year. It's not impossible to win even if your state is going big time against your party for the White House (just ask Susan Collins and Dean Heller), but it's rare (just ask Scott Brown, Norm Coleman, Gordon Smith, Elizabeth Dole, and John Sununu). (Previous Ranking: 2)
1. Wisconsin
We finish once again with the Badger State, where we officially have a candidate on the Democratic side in former Sen. Russ Feingold. Feingold passed on easier races (the 2012 Senate seat being chief amongst them), seemingly intent on winning back his seat, and polling shows that Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is in big trouble, with Feingold being consistently in the lead (sometimes by double-digits). The election cycle is young, Feingold has history against him, and there is the possibility that Gov. Scott Walker being on the national ticket could help Republicans down-ballot, but if the election were held today the Republicans would be handing over this seat, which is a really tough position to be in as an incumbent who isn't as well-known as his opponent. (Previous Ranking: 1)
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