The Future of Lisa Murkowski

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

With calls in the past 48 hours in Colorado and Mississippi, there are very few states where we have Governor's, Senate, or House results (the political races we generally profile on this blog) undecided.  I'm still tracking some House races in Minnesota, Tennessee, North Carolina, & California, and the Kansas Governor's race remains inexplicably uncalled (it seems all but certain that Cindy Holscher is going to win, but for some reason no one has pressed the "called" button yet).  But the real prize on the map is still Alaska, where we have heavy frontrunners in the Democrats winning the Governor's & Senate races and the Republicans on track to win the House, but no official call.  I want to talk about the other major figure in Alaska politics today, though, and for the sake of this article we're going to go under the assumption that these are the winners; even if they're not (and I seriously doubt they won't be), the article still stands given the closeness of these races, and so it's time to talk about Lisa Murkowski.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski came to the US Senate in 2002 in something of a scandal, with her father choosing to appoint her to his old Senate seat when he became Governor.  Murkowski's fate at that point was not particularly apparent-her father hadn't been known as a Senate moderate, and she wasn't expected to be one as well, despite his views on abortion specifically being different than hers.  But Murkowski hung on in the years that followed, winning not just the Tony Knowles race in 2004 (which Knowles was initially expected to emerge victorious in), but also a write-in campaign in 2010, and then races in 2016 & especially 2022 where she had heavy support from the Democratic Party.  This was, as the years went by, because Murkowski has moderated her stances.  While a static media will bemoan the losses of Susan Collins & Brian Fitzpatrick as the end of the moderate wing of the GOP in Congress, the reality is that for a few years now the only truly moderate/maverick for the GOP in Congress has been Murkowski, someone who actually bucked her party over Brett Kavanaugh, and even endorsed Mary Peltola for House and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for Governor in 2022 & 2026, respectively.

Murkowski has long been rumored to be considering a party switch (in fact, this article isn't the first time we've written about it).  Unlike Susan Collins, she's actually seemed to consider it, potentially pulling something like a Jim Jeffords and going as an Independent who caucused with the Democrats, but until 2026, one could argue this was just wishful thinking on the Democrats' part.  Alaska was still a red state-the argument for Murkowski switching parties largely predicated on her inability to win Republican voters in a primary, but ultimately as a full-on Democrat (or one who caucused with them), she'd be at-odds with most of the state, and it wasn't necessarily going to be easier for her to run as one in a general election.

2026 has changed that math a bit.  Coming off of surprise victories for Mary Peltola in 2022, and the state's increasingly secure (it keeps passing despite ballot measures to destroy it) ranked-choice voting, the Democrats now appear to have won the Governor's & Senate elections in Alaska.  It's no longer hypothetical that Murkowski could win as someone who caucuses with the Democrats...she's going to be on plane rides with someone who is caucusing with them every weekend for at least the next two years.  Nick Begich III proves in the House that the Republicans still have gas, but it's probable at this point that as Democrats look to 2028, presidential candidates will be investing in the state.  We've had multiple cycles in the 2020's where the Democrats have competed here, and with the rising cost of groceries & gas disproportionately impacting Alaska, it'll be a state where the Democrats will look at its three electoral college votes not necessarily as winnable, but within reach.

With this move, something has happened to Murkowski that for years Susan Collins used to her advantage-she's increasingly more valuable to the GOP caucus than they are to her.  Collins had that for decades, being the only Republican who could win the state while campaigning on the same ticket that Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, & Joe Biden were also winning upon.  Murkowski has been a moderate, but one who Republicans could publicly scold with the knowledge that she'd struggle to win as a Democrat...that's not the case in a Kreiss-Tomkins/Peltola era.  And Murkowski appears to know this-she has asserted pretty early that she will be going after the Ranking Member slot on the Senate Appropriations committee, a huge boon for Alaska.  In another era, the rumors that Jerry Moran was going to try and challenge her for the seat might be taken more seriously as Murkowski could be seen as disposable, but Murkowski is now a genuine flight risk for the GOP, and I see little indication that John Thune will allow Moran to displace her given what's at stake (even risking Moran retiring as a result, which given the Democrats' success in Kansas in 2026, would make that seat more vulnerable in 2028).

But I do think looking beyond this race, one has to wonder what Murkowski will do in 2028.  The Democrats won't sit idly by and let her be their de facto nominee in 2028 like they did in 2022; with Peltola in office, there's no incentive not to field someone who might actually caucus with you in 2028, and one wonders if that was going directly through Tom Begich's mind when he dropped out of the gubernatorial primary earlier this year.  It's also impossible to see a world where Trump doesn't back a Republican challenger for the seat instead of Murkowski; there has been gossip for months that outgoing Gov. Mike Dunleavy wants to go for Murkowski's Senate seat in 2028, and given he'd surely get Trump's backing (even after 2026, I would imagine it's still a valuable tool with the GOP base) Dunleavy would be formidable.

This would all leave Murkowski without a base.  Murkowski is, even in 2026, the only member of Congress whom you could argue has their seat despite a majority of their voters having voted for the other party for president (I doubt even over-performers like Scott Colom & Victoria Broderick could claim otherwise).  In 2028, if she wants to win, she could certainly get on a number of second-slot ballots against Begich or Dunleavy, but that would still put her in third in a ranked-choice voting effort and not an actual winner.  The most formidable senator electorally in office right now is not someone you should ever count out, but as she approaches 70, one wonders if Murkowski is looking at a race where she once again doesn't have a path to obvious victory, and is considering (after watching her friend Susan Collins go down in flames) whether it's time to retire in 2028.