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| Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert (D-CA), running in the 48th district |
Governor: One of the bigger, now forgotten, unforced errors of the cycle was Donald Trump insisting on endorsing in the California Governor's race, making it impossible for the GOP to get both of their candidates through to the runoff, and in the process getting Biden Cabinet Sec. Xavier Becerra (D) a free ride to the governor's mansion even though his approval ratings are already a bit sour with his base.
House: The redraw of the California map is one of the few for Democrats that actually stuck, and so we're in a situation where not only are the Democrats getting a probable blue wave, but they have some seats locked into place. The 1st and 41st are both Safe Blue Flips (the numbering here is a little weird, but I'm doing old numbering so, for example, Linda Sanchez is getting a flip in the 41st even as an incumbent while Hilda Solis is getting a hold in the 38th, as that's Sanchez's current district number). I honestly don't see a path for Rep. Kevin Kiley (running as an Independent in the most blatant desperation ploy I've seen in a while to stay in Congress) in the 6th or any Republican in the 48th district. The 13th & 45th are not flipping this year even if they'd be a little bit more vulnerable in a normal year, so the real question mark for me is if David Valadao finally loses the 22nd district. My money is on him losing, giving us D+5, though Valadao at least might take a bit to have the race called.
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| State Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-CO) |
Governor: Given some of the conservative shifts this year in Colorado, it might feel like Attorney General Phil Weiser is a flip, but this is merely a hold for the Democrats.
Senate: Sen. John Hickenlooper came closer than expected in the primary to losing (and is likely on his last term), but that should not be an issue as he shifts into the general.
House: There's two legs on this one. First, there's the obvious Tossup, and honestly slightly Lean Dem with Rep. Gabe Evans looking like a goner against State Rep. Manny Rutinel, a seat that we might've wished we'd gone with a more moderate option in 2028 or 30, but for now is a flip for the Dems. And then there's the other three seats in the fast-shifting blue state of Colorado, all of which (particularly the 5th, pitching conservative Rep. Jeff Crank against attorney Jessica Killin) could go blue, but I honestly don't think they will. This is one of those lines where if it's a blue tsunami some of this will break...but as you'll see in the next few days, I'm not predicting a blue tsunami even if there's part of me that wonders if gas prices might portend some surprises. D+1
Connecticut
Governor: Nutmeg State governors have in the 21st Century been notoriously unpopular, with Democrats regularly courting tight races they ultimately pull off. Which makes this year, where Ned Lamont feels on-track for an easy win, somewhat noteworthy (the only noteworthy thing about this race).
Delaware
Senate: At some point the Far Left are going to realize primarily Chris Coons with a progressive is probably a solution they'd end up with the sweet end of the lollipop, but for now he's just cruising to another term (doesn't it feel like he should've been in the running to succeed Schumer more than he is?).
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| Rep. Kathy Castor (D-FL) |
Governor: I will be honest here-I don't buy the Florida hype. In a cycle where Texas, Alaska, Kansas, & even South Carolina are giving me pause, Florida is a speed bump for me. The Democrats have run a good race, and former Rep. David Jolly is a decent candidate, but I've been to this dance before, and Rep. Byron Donalds winning by a slim margin is still him winning. Honestly, I wouldn't be stunned if Florida just ends up getting redder to the nation again in 2026.
Senate: The same can be said of Sen. Ashley Moody's preordained reelection over State Rep. Angie Nixon (a race we discussed in-depth here)-I just don't buy it's winnable even in the bluest of environments. Florida feels like a polarized lost cause for the Democrats, like New Jersey in reverse.
House: Florida's mid-decade redraw always carried some risk. The state is fast-growing, but also it's a relatively young "Safe R" state where (while overall it will stay red) pockets of it might flirt with Democrats still. The DCCC did a decent job keeping incumbents in the races, but ultimately I think that Rep. Darren Soto goes down, as does the incumbent-less 22nd seat (had Debbie Wasserman Schultz jumped into this race instead of the safe 20th, this might've been a hold). I also think the Dems will lose Kathy Castor thanks to Trump's 11-point margin there (though this is one of the last races I called), but they'll hang on with Jared Moskowitz in the 25th for at least one more cycle. R+3
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| Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D-GA) |
Governor: One of the biggest question marks of Election Night 2026 is (for me) the Georgia Governor's race. On-paper, the extremely strong showing here and increasing signs that Georgia is crossing from purple state into blue-purple state (Harris actually did better here relative to the nation than Biden did, though she still lost it and he won it) would indicate that the Democrats should be able to win the governor's mansion for the first time since 1998. But former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has run a pathetic campaign, one that probably wouldn't have come to pass were it not for family issues for Jason Carter & Lucy McBath (both of whom would be winning this by now), and Health Care Executive Rick Jackson has taken advantage of that, and has led in most polling. Here's where I'm a little flummoxed, though-polling says Jackson, and 95% of the time I go where the polling is, but Jon Ossoff is expected to win by a solid margin, and is doing everything in his power to get Lance Bottoms across the finish line (I would gather to keep his options open for a presidential run in 2028, which he denies but I still think happens if she wins). So the question is-is Lance Bottoms' tepid approval as Atlanta Mayor enough to sink her against a no-name MAGA businessman, or can Trump lift all boats? Agh-let's dream big here and think she pulls it off in the closing hours of the campaign...I need to acknowledge in at least a couple of races that it looks like a wave & that might mean some Democrats win races they're mild underdogs in. D+1
Senate: Six years after he pulled off a gigantic upset to win the US Senate seat from Georgia in a runoff, Sen. Jon Ossoff will cruise to reelection, and may well be using this as a pitstop on his way to a 2028 presidential run.
Hawaii
Governor: In one of the bluest states in the nation, Josh Green will get a second term with ease.
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