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| Denise Powell (D-NE) |
Powell's win also puts her in a good position to be elected to Congress this fall. Given the strong blue wave built off of a sluggish economy & unpopular war, an open-seat district that went for Kamala Harris by 4-points is going to be a sincere challenge for the Republicans to maintain. Her win, taking the seat of Rep. Don Bacon also helps the math on not just a House majority, but also an historic benchmark that the party could well reach this fall, and something I wanted to talk about: getting 100 Democratic women into the US House.
For those who don't know, at one point (until the 1970's), the number of women in both House caucuses were roughly equal. Democrats tended to have slightly more overall, but generally it was close to 50/50. While the 1970's provided a sugar high (in large part due to the Democrats' support for the ERA), it wasn't until the wake of the Clarence Thomas hearings that the share of women in the House was always favored to the Democrats. Since the start of the Clinton administration, the only times that the share has dipped below 65% were in the wake of the deeply red years of 1994 and 2004. After the 2018 midterms, a reaction in many ways to the Women's March and the Trump administration, at least 70% of the House women have been Democrats every Congress.
All of this is to say that while at the start of this Congress there were only 30 Republican women (just under 14% of the caucus), over 44% of the House Democrats were women, a grand total of 97, just three shy of 100. In that time, two women (Mikie Sherrill & Sheila Cherifilus-McCormick) have resigned while two women (Analilia Mejia & Adelita Grijalva) have since been elected. Though there are a handful of openings, I find it unlikely the stars will align enough to ensure that the Democrats get to 100 before November. After November, though, it's a different game, which we'll check out today by breaking out into four different categories.
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| Rep. Kathy Castor (D-FL) |
It's worth noting that, in a normal year, we'd largely be sticking to no women in this category for Democrats. Trump is wildly unpopular, and honestly with the 2024 maps, any Democrat that won probably also wins the general election. This includes people like Nellie Pou, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Laura Gillen, & Susie Lee, who saw Trump perform well in their districts in 2024.
But there was a lot of mid-decade redistricting, honestly to the point where I struggle to keep up, and that has left a handful of women in the lurch. With the new lines, it seems probable that both Kathy Castor & Marcy Kaptur will be in the toughest races they've faced in a while, and both would be extremely vulnerable for reelection. Julie Johnson is sure to win her seat if she wins her primary, which is no guarantee against former Rep. Colin Allred (Jasmine Crockett won this seat in her Senate primary even as she lost the state). The Florida redraw that endangered Kathy Castor might also cost either Lois Frankel or Debbie Wasserman Schultz their seats, though the musical chairs here makes me think that they're both probably going to stay on, and the vulnerable Democrats are going to be Castor, Darren Soto, and Cherifilus-McCormick's seat going to Wasserman Schultz. There's still a real possibility that they redraw Alabama to the point where Shomari Figures & Terri Sewell are in a member vs. member race...but I would assume Sewell's long history in the state would deliver it for her.
There will likely be at least a couple of vulnerable incumbents to primaries (Frederica Wilson, should she run, would be toward the top of the list given her age & health), so let's assume from this bucket that the Democrats lose four seats from their 97 (for example Castor, Kaptur, Cherifilus-McCormick, & Johnson) and that they'll need a net gain of 7 in our next three to hit 100.
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| State Rep. Jacqui Irwin (D-CA) |
There are currently 21 retiring incumbent members of the 215 Democratic House caucus members (not counting delegates); there is also the seats of David Scott & Eric Swalwell, bringing this total to 23 given Scott has passed away and Swalwell has resigned. Of those leaving office, nine are women, so this would bring us down to 84 House members. But of course, at least some of the 23 seats will be filled by women.
We know, for example, that of the 5 open seats in Illinois (all safely blue) 3/5 of them have nominated a Democratic woman, for a net gain of one. In the remaining 18 seats, only two (CA-14 & CA-26) seem like very clear paths for women to win. There are 6 seats where Democratic women have a path (sometimes a good one) with a quality candidate already running for the office (CA-11, MN-2, NH-1, NJ-12, NY-7, & GA-13). But even if we assume that women take 6 of these 8 seats, that would still leave the Democratic women down three here, bringing them down to 90 as currently none of the other remaining seats that are open are likely to go to Democratic women, as either there's a clear Democratic man who is the frontrunner (or in some cases, already the nominee) for the seat, or these are seats that were impacted by redistricting where a Democratic man will be replaced by a Republican. So essentially to make this happen, Democratic women will need to net at least ten pickups to have a shot at 100.
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| LA County Chair Hilda Solis (D-CA) |
Unless the Democrats are able to pull off a miracle in Virginia, let's assume the only state where Democrats have a clear shot at picking up due to mid-decade redistricting are in California (specifically the 1st, 6th, 41st, & 48th districts) and Utah's 1st district, all currently held by Republican men and all widely expected to be held by Democrats in January.
Utah will be a man (the only prominent Democratic woman in the race recently dropped out), but California will likely have a Democratic woman elected to the 41st (or the trickle down of this being that Linda Sanchez wins here and then Hilda Solis wins in the 38th...either way a net gain with Solis), and they have a solid option in the 6th & 48th, with the 1st probably headed to a Democratic man even if there is a Democratic woman in the race. So let's assume here they get 2 more Democratic women, and we get back to 8 seats that need to be picked up in traditional Tossup seats.
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| Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA) |
There are currently 20 seats held by Republicans that are considered Tossup/Lean D/Lean R by Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. In order for the Democratic women's caucus to hit 100 seats, they would need not just Dems to win in 8 of these seats, but they'd need to win with women. That's a tall order, but not an impossible one. Ten of these seats (AZ-6, IA-1, IA-3, NE-2, NJ-7, PA-8, PA-10, VA-1, VA-2, & WI-3) the Democratic woman is very clearly the frontrunner, and in six more (AZ-1, CA-22, CO-8, MI-7, MI-10, & NY-17) the Democrats have a prominent woman running.
Getting better news for Democrats, of the 6 seats that are considered Lean R (as opposed to Lean D/Tossup, much easier gets), only three (VA-1, PA-8 and NY-17) are ones where a woman isn't the clear or possible frontrunner (all of the others are men), and honestly I think that the Democrats are closer to Tossup for those seats than they are Lean R, especially NY-17. If we assume a decent environment, one where, say 65% of these seats (or roughly 13/20 of these seats go to the Democrats), it's probable that we're looking at about 9 or so Democratic women flipping seats here...just enough to get them over the threshold. As of today, unless redistricting throws further wrenches into the race (or the Democrats under-perform), I would wager that there will be 100 Democratic women in the US House come January.
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