This blog is old (if you look far enough back, you'll find posts that go back over 20 years), but I only started writing regularly on it in 2012. That means that, for the large part, I avoided most of the Tea Party movement that sprung up in the GOP during the Obama administration. I have talked about this a lot, but essentially for those unfamiliar-the Tea Party movement, championed by figures like Sarah Palin & Glenn Beck, had Republicans essentially going after establishment or more traditionally moderate-to-conservative figures and supporting incendiary pols in the party, ones who were less general election-friendly, but appealed to a base that could not understand the appeal of President Obama. Ultimately, this led to the 2016 election and the MAGA movement, which would elect Donald Trump to two terms in the White House. But in its infancy, the Tea Party movement was shorthand for a gift to the Democrats. In 2010 & 2012, five Senate races (in Nevada, Colorado, Delaware, Indiana, & Missouri) saw establishment figures, including long-time incumbent Richard Lugar, lose their primaries and in the general election, saw winnable seats go to the Democrats. This was a big part of how the Democrats held the Senate for six of the eight years that Barack Obama was president...through mistakes made by the Republicans.
Until 2026, while Democrats have seen House races go poorly or be forfeited because of a left-wing candidate ousting a House member and then losing the general (most specifically OR-5 in 2022 and NE-2 in 2018, where wins by Reps. Kurt Schrader & Brad Ashford likely make those seats blue), mostly they've avoided this, even with the rise of a stronger left-wing. Figures like Zohran Mamdani, Ilhan Omar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, & Rashida Tlaib represent a leftist viewpoint on the national stage, but due to coming from deep blue seats, they all have kept these seats in Democratic hands. This year, though, four races have come to the forefront that feel like they are truly serving as a harbinger of a Tea Party for the Democrats, complete with sacrificing winnable races (during a wave election) that could mean disastrous consequences, specifically for control of the US Senate. I wanted to profile these races, and my read on both how likely it is that we get a truly bad candidate, and if they can win even with clear issues with their candidacy.
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| Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D-GA) |
The Moderate Candidate: Jason Esteves & Geoff Duncan
The Far Left Candidate: Keisha Lance Bottoms
Their Credentials: This race is actually over, as Bottoms already won the primary (which is not yet the case for the remaining three contests), but for posterity Bottoms is a former Mayor of Atlanta, while Esteves is a State Senator and Duncan a former Lieutenant Governor (and former Republican).
What's the Problem?: Georgia has not elected a Democratic governor since 1998, and not because we've run total gadflies. In fact, we've run decent candidates multiple times, but the state (even as they've shown a willingness to elect a Democrat to the US Senate) simply doesn't seem capable of going blue for the State House. That felt like it was going to change this year, as both Esteves & Duncan have the sort of moderate profile that Raphael Warnock, Joe Biden, & Jon Ossoff used to get to victory in the Peach State. But Bottoms won, and with her came a tumultuous time as Mayor of Atlanta (including spikes in crime, as well as a dip in popularity during the Covid shutdowns). Bottoms is considerably more liberal than any of the three men I just name-checked, and would be the most liberal Governor of Georgia...ever? Additionally, big city mayors generally struggle to win governor's races, and that's really her only calling card.
Can She Win?: Unlike the other candidates here, Bottoms' problems are more aesthetic/political than ingrained into her campaign (she is easily the most talented of the candidates in terms of ability). She's actually run a successful major campaign before, and has been better about trying to unite Democrats, joining quickly with Jon Ossoff (who is expected to win) to try and ride his coattails to a victory. The Republicans are also making a calculated error in a blue-trending state with a run-to-the-right primary runoff. I think Bottoms might be able to ride the tide and become the first Black woman to ever be governor in November, even if I will own that Esteves or Duncan would be the heavy frontrunner by now while she's in a tossup race.
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| Graham Platner (D-ME) |
The Moderate Candidate: Janet Mills
The Far Left Candidate: Graham Platner
Their Credentials: Mills is a former two-term Attorney General and two-term Governor, the only Democrat to win statewide in Maine in over a decade. Platner is an oyster farmer and a Marine veteran of the Iraq War & War in Afghanistan.
What's the Problem?: We have talked ad nauseam about Platner, and my distaste for his campaign here, but suffice it to say he is not ready for primetime, and was badly vetted before entering the race. He has a history of racist, sexist, & politically damning rhetoric online, has voted multiple times for the woman, Susan Collins, he's now attacking (in many cases for things she did before he stopped voting for her), and as was revealed this weekend, maintained a dating app and romantic correspondence with 6-12 women during the early years of his marriage (which, I'll be honest, were in the past few years as Platner hasn't yet been married three years yet, so this is shockingly recent history and proof he appears to have cheated on his wife for most of his marriage). Platner has maintained a healthy lead in the polls, to the point that Mills is not technically a candidate even though she's still on the ballot & has refused to endorse Platner yet, but with all of this fire, it seems inevitable that Collins (who is smart) hasn't shared the worst yet (keep in mind that not a single of the dozens of Republicans who ran against Donald Trump found the Access Hollywood video before he was the nominee...Collins likely has stuff Mills didn't). For example, what was contained in those correspondences with potentially as many as a dozen women (including, theoretically, sexually explicit material or photographs) have not come to light yet...but certainly will given Collins' impressive election skills.
Can He Win?: Maybe, but I'm doubtful. Polls show he can, and this might be a case where Maine voters (loathsome of Trump) want to send a message, and this is the only way they can. I've maintained on this blog for some time that Collins likely would've lost had her race against Sara Gideon been in 2018 instead of 2020. But Platner's candidacy is toxic, and he has done nothing to win over Collins voters; while Platner can win solely with Democratic voters (Biden & Harris both won Maine), he'll still need about 40-70k voters who voted for Collins in at least one of her 2008/14/20 races, and are therefore comfortable with splitting their votes if he wants to win. It's hard not to look at the mountain of scandals that have engulfed Platner, and not think that Collins is saving the body blow for when it's too late for Platner to drop out (in the same way Claire McCaskill did to Todd Akin in 2012), and will be able to use that to keep those Biden/Collins & Harris/Collins voters on her side one last time.
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| Health Director Abdul el-Sayed (D-MI) |
The Moderate Candidate: Haley Stevens...but also Mallory McMorrow
The Far Left Candidate: Abdul el-Sayed...but also Mallory McMorrow
Their Credentials: Stevens is a 4-term US congresswoman, while McMorrow is a State Senator (since 2019) and el-Sayed briefly served as Wayne County health director, as well as ran for governor in 2018.
What's the Problem?: This is a weird race because it started with a very clear differential between Stevens (viewed by many as the moderate, including Chuck Schumer who has not been shy about his preference for her candidacy) and McMorrow/el-Sayed, both of whom are from the left of the party. But the far left itself seems to have coalesced around el-Sayed, leaving Stevens getting much of the moderate wing and McMorrow in a bizarre position where she has voters from across the spectrum. This is in part because McMorrow is objectively the best candidate in terms of actual quality (she's relatable, good in a debate, and would be a national figure pretty quickly if she won), but also at this point it's clear that McMorrow and Stevens are splitting their vote, and polling shows certainly Stevens (and probably McMorrow) could win in 2026, whereas el-Sayed does the worst against Mike Rogers.
Can He Win?: No, I do not think el-Sayed can win this race. Stevens has shown herself to be abysmal on the campaign trail, and McMorrow has not handled some controversy over old social media posts super well, but both are going to beat Mike Rogers in a wave election. Michigan is too blue, and they are not controversial enough, to actually lose here, particularly against a guy who just lost a Senate race. But el-Sayed's support of Defund the Police, his embrace of controversial figures like Hasan Piker, and his statements about the death of Ayatollah Khamenei all add up to a candidate that is not ready for primetime, and that can be easily attacked by the Republicans. If he wins the primary, Mike Rogers would be the heavy favorite to flip this seat in November.
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| State Rep. Francesca Hong (D-WI) |
The Moderate Candidate: Sara Rodriguez
The Far Left Candidate: Francesca Hong...and also Mandela Barnes
Their Credentials: Rodriguez & Barnes both served as lieutenant governor, with Barnes giving up the seat when he ran for the US Senate (unsuccessfully) in 2022. Hong is a state representative first elected in 2020.
What's the Problem?: Hong is the most obvious problem here. She's a Democratic socialist, one who has pushed to abolish the police, and even has espoused getting rid of the prison system entirely. In a state as moderate as Wisconsin, this is tantamount to political suicide, and makes her totally unelectable. I know this in part because of Mandela Barnes' embrace of the Defund the Police movement in 2022. Hong is actually doing some favors to Barnes in the primary, in part making him look more moderate by comparison, but it's hard not to remember that while figures like John Fetterman, Raphael Warnock, & Mark Kelly were winning tough races in a theoretically red wave in 2022, Barnes lost to Ron Johnson, the only major Senate race that the Dems couldn't sink the basket on that cycle. Rodriguez, who is polling in third right now (in an under-polled race, so it's hard to get a read if she's really that bad) is the clear moderate choice and would be able to beat Tom Tiffany & hold this seat...but again, she's in third, and it seems unlikely that the powers-that-be are going to try and save her. It should be noted that Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley is also running, but unlikely to win and will probably play spoiler.
Can She Win?: Hong cannot-if she wins, Tiffany will flip the governor's mansion, and Evers strategically-timed retirement (similar to Gary Peters' above) will look like foolishness. Barnes is slightly different-it's not clear whether this is a case of the Democrats being able to ride a weak candidate in a better cycle (like, say, John Thune or Dave McCormick for the Republicans) and get a win here, or if he's also totally toxic. I wouldn't say this is a lost cause if he were to win, but I do think it makes it much harder than it would be with Rodriguez.
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