Tuesday we had the first major primaries of the year, and while I know I'm a day late in getting this out, we're going to continue our "morning after" series anyway with my five thoughts on the elections in Texas & North Carolina
The biggest story last night was the Senate race, which ended with the Democrats getting their man, and the Republicans getting a runoff. Let's focus first on the Democrats. A race that going into the night I genuinely had no idea how it'd turn out emerged with the Democrats getting State Rep. James Talarico as their nominee. I don't entirely know whom this is a win for in terms of establishment vs. outsider politics (I feel like, like most things in politics, those lines are more complicated than they seem), but Talarico is the candidate whom most pundits (including me) thought would have a better shot in the general election, and so from that perspective this feels like the Democrats playing with their A-Game come November. Talarico will have a lot of work to do to ensure he wins back Black voters in November, though, as Rep. Jasmine Crockett overperformed with this group and he'll need overwhelming support from them if he has any hope of winning. Complicating that matter is that there was clear chicanery in Dallas County, where it appears that there was confusion over where voters were to cast ballots, and that (despite a court order), Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-TX) is trying to invalidate ballots that were cast as a result of extended voting hours. Given that Crockett's base-of-support is Dallas County, it's likely she would've done better had there not been voter discrepancies, though probably not enough to win.
I will note that this puts Crockett, who has been a rising star for the past few years, into an inevitable position: out of work. It was clear that the general election was such a stretch it didn't make sense to get into this race (she would need hundreds of thousands of Trump voters in her corner to win, and she was not going to do that), so this shouldn't be a surprise, but it does make me question what she does next given the primary should've been an easier victory given her fame & popularity with the base. I would imagine she becomes a talking head on cable news (and very much to her credit, even with the Dallas County issues, she endorsed Talarico immediately), but likely her salary will be less than it would've been had she won, and will honestly be even less if Talarico wins in November. I also think it's worth noting that former Vice President Kamala Harris made a calculated risk in endorsing Crockett at the last minute, and given she's trying to run for president in 2028, and her biggest liability is voters worried she can't win, endorsing a candidate who loses a tight race is not a great look for her.
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| Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) |
While Talarico is for sure on the ballot now in November, the Republicans are still debating. Going into last night, incumbent-Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) was viewed as an underdog, to the point that some assumed he might not even make the Top 2 in a runoff. Instead, it looks increasingly likely that Cornyn will come out of the primary with the lead, or very close to it. This is still relatively pathetic for an incumbent senator, but given that people were writing Cornyn's political obituary a few days ago, this is good news for him, and the NRSC which is heartily endorsing him.
The question now is around President Trump. It appears likely that Trump will endorse (he said as much yesterday), and pretty much everyone's belief is that he'll back Cornyn. This would be a godsend to Cornyn, and honestly a huge slap in the face to his opponent Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has been about as loyal of a MAGA supporter as you can get (proof, once again, that Trump's only loyalty is to himself). I assume that Trump's endorsement will carry more weight than MAGA's clear antipathy of Cornyn, and Cornyn would make it through (in which case he'd be the frontrunner, but not the total one given his lack of popularity), but I wouldn't totally discount Paxton given that Trump's endorsement has less juice than it used to, and while MAGA isn't willing to rebuff him directly, they are seemingly more inclined than they used to be to ignore him when it comes to a primary. A big question is what happens to the votes of Rep. Wesley Hunt, who got third-are they going to back Trump's endorsed candidate or Paxton...given they just voted against an incumbent US Senator by casting their support for Hunt, that's a harder question than it seems.
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| Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) |
If there's a silver lining for Jasmine Crockett, it might be that she now has a very strong ally that looks to be winning back a seat in the US House. In Dallas County, former Rep. Colin Allred came out in the lead, but not by enough to avoid a runoff, against the woman who replaced him in the House, Rep. Julie Johnson. This was in part a result of a redraw, and in part because Allred, after losing a Senate race in 2024 and initially running for the Senate in 2026, went scorched earth in the primary, trying to tank the campaign of James Talarico by implying that he was racist. Allred's gambit didn't help Crockett (if anything, it may well have hurt her), but in a bluer constituency, it does appear he's in the driver's seat in a bid to win back his seat. Similar to the Republican primary, part of Johnson's uphill (I'd say she's very much an underdog now despite being the incumbent) climb is going to be trying to pick up the votes of third place challenger Carlos Quintanilla, but given the issues in Dallas County (and his strong support in her primary), I would assume that Jasmine Crockett will want to get a victory and will also make Allred's victory a top priority. If Johnson doesn't become the first incumbent House Democrat to lose a primary this year, I would be surprised.
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| Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) |
She won't be the first incumbent member of the House to go down in a primary, though, as that distinction this cycle goes to Rep. Dan Crenshaw. Crenshaw's loss to State Rep. Steve Toth was not a surprise (I figured this was coming), but it does mean that Toth, who first ran for Congress in 2016, is finally headed to the chamber. Toth is one of the most conservative members of the Texas legislature (let that sink in for a second), and ran in large part on Crenshaw's vote to certify the 2020 election for Joe Biden, the incumbent not buying into the Trump-led conspiracy that the election was stolen. This is a reverse of some of the age-focused politics we've seen in the Democratic Party in recent years (Toth is 24 years Crenshaw's senior), and also the end of a career that started really impressively for Crenshaw, with him having a (I'll admit it) quite funny Weekend Update sketch with Pete Davidson after Davidson had mocked his eyepatch the previous week. It's also proof that MAGA politics can take down some of the Republican Party's most impressive bench candidates, hardly a good plan in a state that is looking to at least be flirting with purple status this year.
On the flip side, the one notable race in North Carolina will likely end with Rep. Valerie Foushee winning another term. In a very blue seat (the primary is tantamount to a victory), Foushee has a slight (it'll go to a recount) win margin, but not enough for a recount to realistically make much of a difference. Democrat Nida Allam, a Durham County Commissioner, was backed by a number of progressive groups (including David Hogg's Leaders We Deserve PAC), and Foushee had a lot of last minute help from a number of organizations, including AIPAC and some PAC's that support AI (not meant to be confusing word play-those are two separate things). While an incumbent losing by this much is not a great look, this was one of the best options on the map for Hogg's movement (which is trying to oust aging Democrats out of office-Foushee is 69 and Allam is 32), and they weren't able to win.
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| Rep. Christian Menefee (D-TX) |
Arguably the best option to beat an incumbent member of the House with a younger member is with an incumbent member of the House. In Texas's 18th district, the question of whether that will happen extended into a runoff. Just a few weeks after winning his seat, Rep. Christian Menefee appears to be on top in his race against Rep. Al Green, but it's close enough that (unlike Allred/Johnson) I can't tell who will ultimately be the nominee. Green is 78-years-old while Menefee is just 37-years-old, and this was seen as a chance for Democrats to support a younger candidate, even though Green was far more established & has stronger roots in the district.
The big question here, like with the other two runoffs, is what happens with the third-place candidate (Amanda Edwards). Edwards has been struggling to get to Congress for years. She ran for the US Senate in 2020, and the US House in 2024 & in 2026; in all three races a candidate billed as a rising star couldn't make it out of the primary, and she had actually withdrawn from this race even though her name was still on the ballot. I'm curious to see what she does here-Edwards, by pretty much every estimation, has too many losses at this point to ever make it to Congress and her career as a serious candidate is done. So does she go with the guy who is clearly the future (Menefee), or does she hang onto the idea that she has a future in electoral politics and back Green, in hopes that he retires in 2028 and she can run another campaign? The answer may decide the sole member vs. member primary this year for the Democrats.
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