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| Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) |
First off-wow. Second off, this is an insane to be happening just a few weeks before a Senate primary that has attracted national attention. Coming off of a surprisingly robust Senate flip this weekend, the Texas Democratic Party felt like it was in a truly good position to make some gains later this year. Talarico has been a fundraising powerhouse, out-raising Crockett, and increasingly looking like he will win the primary against her despite many people online (including me) initially assuming that she was a slam-dunk because of her devoted base. This decision by Allred to take the word of a random TikToker, and elevate it to national news by accusing Talarico of being racist, with little founding, is really jaw-dropping, because it essentially throws a grenade into the primary, and makes it harder for either Democrat to win, and given that Allred is not dumb, I struggle to understand his actions here without thinking the worst: that he and Crockett organized this as part of a deal between the two to get her the nomination, one that pretty much everyone involved assumes she can't take to an actual win in November.
There's a couple of ways to dissect this, and I think let's start with what I believe, because part of this has to be opinion as I don't think everyone is speaking in good faith. I do not believe that James Talarico characterized Colin Allred as a mediocre Black man. I don't think Talarico, who is only 36 and therefore grew up his entire adult life realizing that the internet is forever, is that dumb. I believe that the TikToker mischaracterized the conversation, and her open support of Jasmine Crockett implies she did this because she thought this would hurt Talarico's chances (which it might). Whether or not Talarico actually believes this is between he and his conscience, but I don't think he's foolish enough to tell someone he barely knows and that he knows has a public forum like a TikTok account something that would end his career. So let's start there: I don't think he did this, and I suspect on some level Colin Allred & Jasmine Crockett also don't believe it.
I do think, because he said he did, that Talarico characterized Allred's Senate campaign was mediocre. But, let's be honest-it wasn't a particularly impressive campaign, though I don't know that I'd personally call it mediocre. Allred lost to Ted Cruz by 8.5 points in 2024, while Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump in Texas by 13.7 points, or a 5.2-point margin in Allred's favor compared to the top-of-the-ticket. Candidates like Jon Tester, Ruben Gallego, & Sherrod Brown all did better than him. Joe Biden & Beto O'Rourke both got better margins as Democrats when they ran in Texas. Allred's campaign was clearly hurt by Kamala Harris doing so poorly, but had he run alongside Biden in 2020 with these kinds of numbers, even if he could've beaten Biden by 5.2-points (a big ask given Biden already did better than him to begin with, so more traditional coattails than those in reverse seems more likely)...he still would've lost. Allred, let's be honest-was basically just an average Democrat, one who only looks good when you compare him to Kamala Harris (which is true of most Democrats running in 2024). I personally wouldn't call his campaign mediocre, for the record...but it wasn't impressive, and it certainly wasn't the kind of campaign you should emulate if you want to flip a Senate seat in Texas.
But I think it's more important to focus on the "why" Allred is doing this. It could be he's so thin-skinned he couldn't let a viral video like this go without needing to prove himself, but I would assume he has people in his camp that would have told him what a horrible idea this was even if is that self-conscious. I suspect it's because he wants to try and destroy Talarico, making him apologize for a comment he didn't make (that Allred is mischaracterizing on purpose), in order to help Jasmine Crockett, but you have to wonder-to what end? Crockett's not going to win, and this certainly didn't help her in the general election. You have just made a poison-the-well comment that anyone that was on-the-fence about Democrats but liked Talarico is going to take as a sign that they aren't welcome with the Crockett campaign. This would be campaign that would be challenging to get past in Maine or Minnesota, much less a state as ruby red as Texas. Crockett knows she has a losing coalition headed into November, and what's worse is she arguably sees that Talarico could win.
And this is where things get a little bit unpleasant, because the logical answer here (for me) is Crockett & Allred are doing this to ensure no Democrat wins the Texas Senate race in November. Looking at this practically, if Crockett wasn't running for this seat because she wanted to win it, but instead because she wanted to use the national exposure of a major Senate campaign, along with her media savvy (and a very valuable Senate email list that comes with such a race), there's one thing worse than her losing the primary: it's a Democrat proving that they can win the general election. If Crockett & Talarico both lose, she can claim that she would've won had they nominated her, and if she is the nominee, Talarico becomes an asterisk regardless. But if she loses the primary and he wins the general, she becomes, well, a loser. And if her goal is a career in media, especially liberal media, going into that as a "loser" is not going to demand the kind of paydays she's after. This is more speculation than I'd usually like to put into an article, but she has Tim Scott, Ted Cruz, and the NRSC ecstatic right now...and she doesn't seem to want to stop that glee. It's hard not to wonder if she cares more about Talarico losing than someone like Ken Paxton or John Cornyn losing.
But that's Crockett-it's harder to see what Colin Allred gets out of this. Allred was initially running for the Senate, and is now in a tougher position than Crockett. He already has a loss under his belt, he does not have the media following she does, and he had lost a lot of the sheen that he once had as a dragonslayer who defeated a GOP incumbent to win his House seat. He's also only 42-years-old, and a second major loss would destroy his career. I personally thought Allred might have a decent shot at his bid to get back into Congress in the 33rd district. Rep. Julie Johnson ran to succeed Allred when he went against Cruz, but she's new in Congress, and this is a minority-majority district, most of which are historically represented by people of color (Johnson is a white woman). But with this, he has made his own political future much more complicated. It's possible that he is betting that Crockett will win his district, and he'll ride her coattails...but he would've done that anyway. In all likelihood, this backfires on him, making him look petty (negative campaigning is very risky in Democratic primaries, particularly when people start out liking both candidates, which is the case for even the Talarico skeptical Democrats), and while Crockett might end up with a TV career...he ends up with nothing. This is what's so baffling here-Allred chose to do this with little to gain personally, and intense amount to lose. Why he chose to do it anyway is a question for which I don't have an answer.
3 comments:
I think you nailed it, John - they are doing it to ensure no Democrat wins in November.
John, great work. I'm really glad that you wrote this one as I was hoping to gauge your views on it. Yeah, it is such a mess. The whole idea of Allred and Crockett seeing this as something unwinnable and then only looking out for their post-political careers is unbecoming of any public servant. I liked Allred back in 2024 but was disappointed in him for dropping out of this race just to back the far-less-likely-to-win Crockett, and then pull off nonsense like this. There is no reason that this should've become such a matter. I hope national Democrats can come in and save the day. If Allred and Crockett end up as pariahs after this whole thing is done, that's on them.
I'll send you more privately, too. Great work as always.
Thank you! The thing I'm most confused by here is that for Allred, this race is not unwinnable. This is a blue sink seat-whether it's he or Johnson, whomever wins the primary heads to Congress. So I'm perplexed why he risked that.
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