Each year I predict the five films most likely to cross this threshold (more on that in a second), and I did okay. Zootopia and Avatar were both movies that I predicted, and I did mention Lilo, though I didn't quite catch Millennial nostalgia for the movie after Mufasa struggled at the box office (and the Disney live-action trend continues to wane). Ne Zha 2 I will totally own I hadn't even heard of when it came out of nowhere, and so I don't really fault myself on that (you'll note I don't predict a Chinese film to be in contention below, but I suspect one will...it's just really hard to find a lot of hints at which franchises even have new movies, much less which might be in the realm, so just know that I'm confident another film will come close or exceed in 2025...I just can't tell which). Of the three that I predicted, one was Jurassic World: Rebirth, which crossed the $800 million line so a solid bet, though nowhere near as strong as the films starring Chris Pratt in this franchise. The other two were missteps. I thought Tom Cruise nostalgia and the proper close to a series with Mission Impossible 8 was enough to get it going (perhaps if the movie had been good it would have helped?), but it didn't even turn a profit, and making even less was The Fantastic Four: The First Steps, which was one of several misfires from the MCU this year. These were respectable guesses, but it also shows that audiences have become exhausted by these franchises.
Which brings us to our list, and some good news. I think, for the first time since 2019, the box office has the potential for more than five $1 billion-dollar movies. In fact, if it doesn't, we're looking at at least one major franchise headed to catastrophe. Similar to previous years, I'm only going to predict five, but I will say that a year from now I deserve some shame if there's more than 5 billion-dollar movies, and I left one on the chair. I think that we'll have a lot of headline winners (though I continue to worry about mid-tier movies that aren't horror breaking out...really excited to see stuff like The Housemaid & Anaconda get love, and am sending into the world that I want more of films that can have box office legs hitting the $100M mark again that don't have $100M budgets...films like The Devil Wears Prada 2, Verity, & Focker-in-Law, I know you're there, and would love for you to show up well too).
With that-here's my guesses (listed chronologically):
Honorable Mentions: As ever, I'll name check a few films below that might be options or dark horses, especially if the big $1 billion prediction clicks, but there are three movies that I feel deserve special treatment here because not only are they $1 billion contenders, they are ones I think probably are hitting $1 billion (or darn close). The first is the most obvious: The Mandalorian and Grogu, the first Star Wars film in seven years, and part of a major TV franchise. I'm not picking it because it feels like Star Wars light without being connected to the main Skywalker series, but nostalgia for it could be real, and I think waiting so long might have people turning out if it's good (for the record-I'll be there opening weekend, I'm pumped, and making me wait 7 years has actually primed me to see this). Second, we have Minions 3, which is the seventh film from this franchise, and 5/6 of these movies have made over $900 million. The reason I'm not listing it is because the last two were JUST shy, and I do wonder how much longer this franchise can milk this for what it's worth (but I could be wrong...I also predicted the last two & got screwed over so I'm trying a different tact). And third, we have Moana, a movie I'm an idiot for not listing (and initially I did, but changed it last second), as the franchise is beloved, but am I the only person thinking this is "too soon" after a forgettable sequel? I'm judging this in part by sitting next to a 9-year-old the first time I saw the trailer and she said "that's not Moana" when she came onscreen, and I think it's a bad sign they're hiding Dwayne Johnson from us...is this Lilo where it'll be crap and still make $1 billion, or was Lilo an aberration in a tired format?
Release Date: April 3, 2026
Reasons Why It Will Hit $1 Billion: I mean, the biggest one? The last movie did. Not only did it hit it, it made $1.3 billion and was a gigantic hit that honestly I don't think a lot of people saw coming. The recent trend toward established video game & toy IP (not just this, but also Barbie and Minecraft) being more reliable at the box office than superheroes has opened up a lot of gates, and this will be the biggest test if it's just a novelty or if it also is creating franchises. The marketing so far has been smart, hinting at new characters like Rosalina and Bowser Jr, and this is based off of an equally popular game. I suspect this will be a sugar rush opening weekend, and then it'll be a question of how well it can do internationally (and if it it's any good).
Reasons Why It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Some of the problems with surprise $1 billion movies is that they tend to struggle to duplicate with sequels because people only wanted them once. Some good recent examples include Joker, Alice in Wonderland, and Captain Marvel, all of which had insane first numbers and then turned into nothing when people were like "I'm good-that was all I needed" on a second shot. I do worry that's the case for Mario, who started a trend but hasn't had the same staying power that, say, a Barbie sequel might invite.
What It Means for the Rest of the Year: There's not a lot of established video game or toy IP this year that you might borrow from (2027's Zelda is a much better test), but you should be looking out for Masters of the Universe, which is reviving the He-Man franchise and is a big bet for the summer, and Resident Evil is getting a showy punch-up after the failure of 2021's Welcome to Raccoon City. The biggest contender for it might be Jumanji 3, which might get bumped (details on it so far are slim, which makes me wonder how far along they are in production), but the last two films were gigantic, $800+ million movies (the first one was just shy of $1 billion), and is opening at Christmas which could be a good way to cash in (similar to 2025, studios are betting big on the holiday box office in 2026).
Release Date: 6/19/26
Reasons Why It Will Hit $1 Billion: Well, depending on how you count it, the last two both got $1 billion. Past performance is one thing, but these movies are beloved. Go to DisneyWorld and you'll see entire sections of the park dedicated to Woody & Buzz (Donald Duck can't even boast that, and he's been a staple for decades). Pixar also seems intent on this being a big deal-sequels are a huge part of their game plan (Incredibles 3 and Coco 2 are both greenlit, and you gotta assume Inside Out 3 is just a matter of time away), so they are going to want their crown jewel to look shiny...
Reasons Why It Won't Hit $1 Billion: ...particularly since the last time Buzz was on the big-screen, it was an embarrassing catastrophe. 2022's Lightyear was critically-hazed, a financial flop, and became the first film in the franchise not to get an Oscar nomination of some sort. Part of why I think they're bringing this movie back (other than greed) is to make up for tarnishing the legacy so much, though I am worried that this is another risk for Disney-Toy Story 4 was able to get past some of the "we don't need this" by holding up and feeling like a really beautiful sendoff to Woody...but how will they retcon that ending AND get the sort of sentimentality that has become a hallmark of this franchise without increasingly jaded audiences turning away from them? Buzz's Tim Allen is back, but it's worth noting that Slinky Dog, Sarge the Army Man, and both the Potato Heads are all dead in real life...will audiences forgive that Pixar keeps reminding them that this isn't the movie they fell in love with?
What It Means for the Rest of the Year: You're going to note a shocking amount of Disney on this list (seriously-the Mouse House is owning the 2026 box office), but if you can believe it there's two other original films (Hexed and Hoppers) coming out next year from them as well. It's hard not to wonder if the continued trend of Disney originals getting hung-out-to-dry (save for Elemental) will continue, or if we'll finally have the relief of discovering the next Disney franchise. I would also mention that The Cat in the Hat is (other than Minions 3 of course) one of the few non-Disney animated films in 2026 to keep an eye on, particularly as 2018's The Grinch outperformed virtually all expectations (it made way more than you remember it did for a film that no one remembers).
Release Date: 7/17/26
Reasons Why It Will Hit $1 Billion: My riskiest bet, particularly given I had the respectable net of Star Wars or Moana to rely upon, but this is for fun so why not get a little gutsy? Christopher Nolan's last film, a biopic about the man who created the nuclear bomb, nearly made $1 billion, and this is WAY more in-line with what we've come to expect for a $1 billion movie (a starry action-adventure). Nolan's film is huge-people are literally already buying tickets, and given the stature he has, if it's good it'll have the kind of word-of-mouth you can usually only get if you're James Cameron, enough to make $1 billion. I'm pumped-I think this is going to be a big deal.
Reasons Why It Won't Hit $1 Billion: I mean, for starters, it's not based on established cinematic or video game IP...it's a thousands year old story about Greece. But I think the bigger question is more if it will have international appeal. Oppenheimer had a 66% share of its gross internationally (a respectable anomaly given the subject matter). Given the potential for this domestically, if The Odyssey can pull that off, I think it will make it to $1 billion...but I could also see this being more of a domestic box office thing given it doesn't come with recognizable characters like most $1 billion movies do.
What It Means for the Rest of the Year: There's a lot of movies that are going for less conventional routes (i.e. not comic books & animation) this year. You've got original SciFi epics like Project Hail Mary and Disclosure Day (both of which looks terrific), as well as the long-awaited Michael Jackson biopic Michael and the close to the Dune franchise (Dune: Part Three), as the last one made almost double its predecessor, and interest in the series continues to grow. Also, we can't mention Oppenheimer without also mentioning Barbie, and like Christopher Nolan, Barbie director Greta Gerwig also has a follow-up this year in Narnia: The Magician's Nephew, which I'd have a lot more hope for it being a box office juggernaut (and $1 billion contender) IF the film was getting a proper theatrical release rather than just a 28-day trial before it's slapped onto Netflix.
Release Date: 7/31/26
Reasons Why It Will Hit $1 Billion: July promises to be a BIG month for Tom Holland given he's leading both of these films (will this be the closest together ever that someone made two $1 billion movies?), and we also have here (in my opinion) the surest $1 billion movie of the list. Holland's last two endeavors as Spider-Man both made over $1 billion, and even as an insanely saturated character (he has his own accompanying animated franchise as well), there seems to be no stopping him. Spider-Man is, over even Batman or Superman, the most consistently bankable superhero in movies today, and given that Holland is almost certainly closing out his time behind the mask after this (he'll be in his thirties by the time this is released), people will want to see how this ends.
Reasons Why It Won't Hit $1 Billion: I say this with all love and sincerity, if this movie doesn't hit $1 billion, the entire comic book genre has been torn to shreds in a way that it's basically impossible to imagine. Even people who don't see comic book movies see the Spider-Man movies.
What It Means for the Rest of the Year: Probably nothing. I will note that (in addition to the next film on this list) there are two superhero movies (here from DC) coming out this year (Supergirl and Clayface), and while neither should come close to $1 billion (if Superman couldn't, why would these?), both are worth keeping an eye on just to understand the health of the superhero genre after 2025 yielded no billion-dollar movies for either DC or Marvel despite quite a bit of trying.
Release Date: 12/18/26
Reasons Why It Will Hit $1 Billion: Because Avengers is the only franchise in the history of the movies to go 4/4 in terms of hitting $1 billion at the global box office. Harry Potter, Star Wars, Jurassic World, Toy Story...none of them have the perfect 4/4 batting average that the Avengers movies do. And Disney knows it-they are trotting out not just the return of Robert Downey, Jr., but also "plucked from the dead" Chris Evans and a potential sendoff for Chris Hemsworth (wouldn't be super stunned if ScarJo has a cameo they're keeping secret too). Everyone in America will be curious about this.
Reasons Why It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Because, with the very big exception of Spider-Man (which, honestly, is its own thing at this point), the entire post-Endgame plan for the MCU has been a critical and commercial failure of epic proportions. Look at last year-there were three MCU films, and not only did none of them make more than $600 million, there's a decent argument to be made that none of them so much as made a profit. Between lazy movies and toss-away TV shows, the 21st Century jewel in Disney's crown is increasingly at risk of being permanently tarnished.
What It Means for the Rest of the Year: No other movie makes sense to put next to Avengers: Doomsday. No other movie has the stakes to perform the way it will need to perform, no other movie has more riding on its success. It could easily be a $2 billion movie and a close to a gigantic year for Disney...or totally upend a two-decades long money-printing formula that will unceremoniously come to an end.
1 comment:
A very thorough analysis. Thanks, John!
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