No Globe? No SAG? No Problem!....or Perhaps There IS a Problem?

For over ten years, one of the most consistent traditions we have had on this blog has been looking at a weird trend in Oscar predictions.  While the Oscars have in the past 15 years become almost annoyingly predictable in who their nominees are (I don't like it-I want mystery, and especially with the winners it's become ridiculous how you basically just need to watch one awards show to get a read on who will win), since 2006 we had had at least one of the twenty acting nominees who was nominated at neither the Golden Globes or the SAG Awards.  Here they are for the past ten years:

2024: No contenders

2023: America Ferrera

2022: Brian Tyree Henry, Andrea Riseborough, Judd Hirsch, & Paul Mescal

2021: Penelope Cruz, Jesse Plemons, JK Simmons, Judi Dench, & Jessie Buckley

2020: Paul Raci & LaKeith Stanfield

2019: Florence Pugh

2018: Marina de Tavira & Yalitza Aparicio

2017: Lesley Manville

2016: Michael Shannon

2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, & Mark Ruffalo

That trend, though, unfortunately ended in 2024.  While there were contenders (Stanley Tucci in Conclave and Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths were my top guesses), no one ended up getting in without a previous citation.  Unlike 2006 (where it largely happened because of bizarrely uniform female categories and a BONKERS Best Supporting Actor season where spread-the-wealth got too many names in), this was led be a trend that we'll see in 2025, and why I'm a little scared there IS a problem for actors (hence the cheeky spin on the title) who can't compete earlier in the year: the Globes moving to six-wide nominations for all of their categories took out a lot of the "also-ran" names that sometimes pop with Oscar; someone like Brian Tyree Henry or Florence Pugh now would have earlier hardware to support them.  It's also part of an increasing trend of each awards house losing its own flavor.  The Globes used to be crazy (nominating movies solely due to movie stars they liked, quality be damned) while SAG would embrace milquetoast stuff like Helen Mirren in Woman in Gold, and then Oscar would come in late with a classy alternative like Lesley Manville or Charlotte Rampling.  This year, with the Globes still six-wide, and the bizarre shutout of Sentimental Value at SAG (which won't happen with Oscar but now means a lot more names don't qualify for this list), we have a LOT of names.

Hope springs eternal, though, and I will continue to pray we see some new names as it's far more fun to be wrong with Oscar predictions than to be right.  Below, ranked from least to most likely, we have a list of the ten contenders I think are most plausible to get into the race even without a nomination.  A quick reminder with this list before we dissect.  First, the nominees that fit this article's descriptor tend to fall into one of two camps.  They are either movie stars who worked their asses off all season and are getting in based on name recognition alone (Penelope Cruz being the best example of this from the above nominees), or they are someone who is getting a coattails nomination.  The thing about awards bodies is that if they like a film, they REALLY like it (look at Sinners clearing the deck this morning), and so most of the nominees that hit this criteria in recent years have been for films that voters are already choosing for Best Picture or a different acting prize, and they also include these names because they can't stop doting on their favorite movie.  There is technically a third group (people like Paul Mescal and Andrea Riseborough) who sort of just make it all season on vibes and then get in at the exact right moment...but they're harder to guess and I honestly don't really have one of those listed below (though I have a few listed in Honorable Mention)...would be cool though!  Always rooting for another Andrea Riseborough style nomination, mostly because it'll never happen again and it is one of my all-time favorite Oscar morning moments solely based on how unusual it was.

With that said, here is my list!

Honorable Mention: This list is honestly already a bit sparce, and the contenders I think that are real are ranked.  I haven't seen Marty Supreme, so I'm guessing the reason Fran Drescher has no traction is because she's barely in the movie, but she does fit the bill (longtime trouper who knows everybody) that sometimes sneaks in.  If there's a Mescal/Riseborough nominee, you'd probably look to Rebecca Ferguson (A House of Dynamite), Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone) or Lucy Liu (Rosemead), all of whom got the kinds of reviews that would get you a nomination (well two did and one of them is Daniel Day-Lewis), even if they haven't shown up at enough of the precursors to be considered.  There's also recent nominee Jeremy Strong (Springsteen) or former nominee Hailee Steinfeld (Sinners) if the Oscars really like their films, but that feels like a stretch given the former's film has lost all heat and the latter has better options in the movie.  Also, I would be foolish not to mention Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), though Oscar has stopped loving child performances the way he used to, and even when he did, it was usually in the female categories where child actors showed up.

10. Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman)

For Her: Steinfeld definitely makes more sense here & probably should be number ten, but if we're going to get crazy, let's get loud (pun intended), and boy has Jennifer Lopez in recent years been loud about her lack of a nomination in her career.  Don't pretend you haven't seen the clip of her listening to the Oscars and tearfully realizing she wasn't getting in for Hustlers.  I'm not usually one to say someone is "due" but given her career...she should have a nod by now, and I suspect the Academy knows it.

Against Her: The film doesn't look like a contender in any other category, and it flopped pretty spectacularly earlier this year.  Lopez also has a reputation for being challenging to work with (Luis Guzman can't be the only Academy member who doesn't like her, even if he's one of the few on record), and people like to vote for people they enjoy working with...this nomination made a lot of sense a few months ago, but now not as much.

9. Hugh Jackman (Song Sung Blue)

For Him: Jackman, unlike Lopez, has an Oscar nomination to rely upon, but he's been in contention a few times since then and could feel like a comeback nomination is worthy of him (also, unlike Lopez, he has a more affable professional reputation).  Also unlike Lopez, he has a costar (Kate Hudson) who seems destined to get a nomination this year, and so Academy voters are likelier to be playing their screener for him.  There's not a lot of feel-good in this year's race, and this would be a good spot for it.

Against Him: Hudson outacts him, and the Academy has really moved away from this middle-of-the-ground crowd-pleaser (15 years ago he'd be a much better shot) in favor of more serious critical fare.  Truth be told, I would've assumed he was more of a "wild SAG nominee" than an Oscar nominee at this point.  Both of the lead acting races are crazy tough this year, as a lot of the nominees feel "locked" because they come with a probable Best Picture nominee (bizarrely, Jackman is the only lead contender I have on this list).

8. Emily Watson (Hamnet)

For Her: At one point in the 1990's, Watson felt like she might fall into default nominee status, but fell out of fashion for some reason and never really rebounded.  But Oscar loves a comeback, and they also love British character actresses.  Watson doesn't have a huge role, but it is a powerful one, and if they like Hamnet, it's possible she's the surprise this year.

Against Her: Here's the deal, and why category fraud truly SUCKS.  Paul Mescal is also campaigning for supporting for the same film, and if you told me he was in at least an hour more of this movie than Watson, I'd believe you.  Having Mescal (very good in this movie but completely a lead) campaigning here makes it feel like Watson isn't doing enough to warrant her citation...even though she is an ACTUAL supporting part.  It's likely costing her nominations, in addition to there just being a lot of contenders for Supporting Actress.

7. Regina Hall (One Battle After Another)

For Her: Hall is exactly the sort of person who sneaks into a last-minute nomination.  She's a well-loved character actor, one who has never been nominated despite Oscar connections (she's a former host), and she's appearing in a key, scene-stealing role in the likely Best Picture winner.  She's also been in the conversation before (Support the Girls), and has elevated movies (like Scary Movie) that pretty much everyone knows would not have had the cultural staying power were it not for her (not to mention the box office receipts).

Against Her: There are too many actors trying for nominations in One Battle After Another.  That's honestly the biggest issue-the film is already trying to get five acting nominations (which it got for SAG, so this is real), but adding a sixth nomination, as we discussed here, has never happened before, and she's likely going to end up just shy.

6. Tania Maria (The Secret Agent)

For Her: Her role as the scene-stealing landlady is the kind of role that frequently gets you an Oscar nomination, and despite SAG dropping the ball, Oscar is much friendlier to subtitled movies than any of the precursor awards.  She has several key moments in the film with likely nominee Wagner Moura, and if you've seen the movie, she'll stand out.

Against Her: Here's the thing-I'm confident Oscar voters are going to see the movie, and I'm confident that they're going to like her, but will they bother to learn her name?  Honestly, this is a legitimate question as, say, the cast of Parasite found out.  But I can't help but think about Roma a few years ago and how they ended up with a few nominations that came out of nowhere, especially in upended categories (which Supporting Actress is).

5. Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man)

For Her: She's Glenn freaking Close.  And not just is she an eight-time Oscar-nominated legend that pretty much everyone agrees is the greatest living actor without an Oscar, she's kind of having a moment right now between this and the wildly successful (but critically-maligned) All's Fair.  She's the standout in the film, and honestly in a year as unusual as this for Supporting Actress, if she got nominated I'd bet she'd win, which is why Netflix really should get behind her...

Against Her: ...but they aren't.  Rian Johnson's move to Netflix resulted in two very strong Knives Out sequels (in my opinion, both better than the original), but the last film had two totally worthy performances to cite for Janelle Monae & Kate Hudson (I personally nominated both of them), and yet neither got in, and I think Netflix took the lesson away from that that these films aren't worth giving attention.  Which is a pity, because I mean it-I think this might be Close's Oscar win if she could've gotten in, and there's room for her.

4. William H. Macy (Train Dreams)

For Him: On the flip side, we have a movie that Netflix IS getting behind, and a character actor who is likely due for another nomination (similar to Paul Giamatti a couple of years back getting a follow-up citation for The Holdovers).  I have not seen this film, but from what I can tell Macy has a plum part, and with both the film and Joel Edgerton in the conversation, I wouldn't be surprised if he snuck in (it certainly feels like the type of role that would).

Against Him: I can't quite tell where we're falling on the Train Dreams momentum train (pun not intended...also not sure if it's a pun).  Did its pair of Golden Globe nominations signal that we should be watching for it coming in the future, or was that the best it's going to do and other, flashier films get in its way for an Oscar nomination?  Edgerton is fighting for his life in the most crowded of the races, and I don't see Macy making it without him.

3. Andrew Scott (Blue Moon)

For Him: In 2023, Andrew Scott gave what (in my opinion) was the best cinematic performance of the decade to date, and got absolutely nothing from Oscar.  I suspect, though, that people are aware of this fact (i.e. more people saw All of Us Strangers in the interim), and Scott is on the precipice of movie stardom, regularly getting key roles in major films like Blue Moon.  This is a very subtle turn, and one that (if people are watching the movie) he should stand out for as it's critically important in making what Hawke does work.

Against Him: The top four are really where I think (if we have one) we're going to get our surprise nomination.  But the question hanging over all of them is "why didn't they get nominated at the Globes or SAG...and why would Oscar be different?"  With Scott this is particularly important because he's the only one not in a Best Picture contender, so the acting is really the only thing that he has going for him, and so there's more eyebrows as to where he has been all season (the other three, if Oscar loves the films more than the Globe or SAG, is how they sneak in).  Is this role just not clicking with voters?

2. Delroy Lindo (Sinners)

For Him: Lindo has been on the verge of an Oscar nomination for years.  He should've gotten in a few years back for Da 5 Bloods (again, I nominated him), but he's been in movies regularly for decades, everything from some of Spike Lee's best pictures (like Crooklyn) to box office sludge (like Gone in 60 Seconds & Ransom) to films Oscar DID go for but he wasn't nominated (specifically The Cider House Rules).  In another major Best Picture contender like Cider House...Lindo gives off the vibes of an actor Oscar wants to put his name on, so at 73, this is the time.

Against Him: Everyone else in this cast is getting nominated instead.  Seriously-we saw three cast members (Michael B. Jordan, Miles Caton, & Wunmi Mosaku) all get nominated this morning, so why wasn't his name there?  It's hard not to think that, like Emily Watson, Caton (who is in 25 more minutes of the film and definitely the co-lead of the picture) is hurting him by dwarfing a true supporting performance.

1. Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme)

For Her: In order to be #1 on this list, you gotta bring it.  Key part of a major Best Picture contender?  Check.  Coattail nominee when there's other actors in your film locked in already?  Check.  Former Winner/Nominee who is making a comeback of sorts with Oscar?  Double check.  And with Gwyneth, it's hard not to also notice that she's actively trying for this-she's hit every press junket she can think of, even interviews she wouldn't normally do (like Amy Poehler's Good Hang podcast), and clearly is hoping to finally get her second Oscar nomination.  That same sort of "please, I want this" plea from a major movie star worked for Annette Bening in Nyad a few years ago.

Against Her: Paltrow's public celebrity is (like Lopez's) polarizing, and she also has internal competition from Odessa A'zion (a fellow NepoBaby).  I haven't seen the movie, so I also do wonder if part of this is me judging a performance that's just not in Oscar's wheelhouse...but critics don't seem to indicate this is a throwaway part.  I've said it a few times this article, but I cannot stress enough-Oscar LOVES a comeback...