Final 2025 Oscar Predictions

On Thursday, the Oscars will announce the nominees for the 98th Academy Awards, just two years shy of the 100th edition of the ceremony.  If you follow me on Letterboxd (and you should!), you'll know that I've been working heartily on getting a bunch of 2025 screenings done in advance of our Oscar Viewing Project.  I'm confident I won't have seen them all by then (too many things to do this week, and honestly if I'm even close to right at least a few of these I won't have access to before then), but as long as I can catch Marty Supreme this weekend, I'll likely have seen all of the major nominees, and will be able to quickly dive into both the Oscar Viewing Project and the My Ballot awards shortly for the year so we can be back to claiming I've profiled every year of the 21st Century.

One thing I will note before we get to this article-the Sinners tally.  It has become something of a parlor game in recent days to talk about whether or not Sinners will break the record for most-nominated movie of all-time.  The current record is a three-way tie between All About Eve, Titanic, & La La Land.  It's definitely possible for Sinners to do so, and honestly it has a better-than-even shot at least tying the record.  It's eligible in all ten of the tech categories (some of which it's a lock for, a couple of which are a stretch), can get the trio of Picture/Director/Writing unless there's an upset, and therefore would just need two acting nominations (not guaranteed...it's honestly not a lock for any acting nods), but certainly plausible.  I don't count nominations as I do predictions, but I'll circle back with a Sinners count at the end of the article.

Notes: I have ranked these from most-to-least likely nominees, though I will own that you should focus most on what I predict vs. what I don't.  I try to predict at least a few nominees that I think might make it for bragging rights (Supporting Actor, Score, and Makeup have those), but ultimately go with how many I get right.  I only list alternates to give you a portrait of what the category looks like and what else was on my mind.  It's a pet peeve of mine when people claim credit for longshots by putting them as alternates, but not actually voting for them...don't give me that credit either. 😊

Picture

1. One Battle After Another

2. Hamnet

3. Sinners

4. Marty Supreme

5. Frankenstein

6. Sentimental Value

7. The Secret Agent

8. Bugonia

9. It Was Just An Accident

10. Train Dreams

Alt: Wicked: For Good, Avatar 3

The Lowdown: As ever, the first 6-7 are locked in, and Bugonia has done so well all season it's hard to see it missing.  I think the biggest question I have for the final two is whether Oscar (which has increasingly become less populist than it once was, actually living up to the "movies no one sees" label that once really was an unfair criticism), will go with two critically-acclaimed (but very under-seen) dramas versus two big, splashy sequels.  Neither Wicked nor Avatar had particularly strong reviews, but both should do decently enough in the tech categories to split the difference.  Honestly, F1 is going to do well enough in the tech categories (and would be a nice composite of box office & critical acclaim) maybe I'm skipping an obvious contender, but I just don't buy a Brad Pitt race-car flick is getting into Best Picture.

Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

2. Chloe Zhao (Hamnet)

3. Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein)

4. Ryan Coogler (Sinners)

5. Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident)

Alts: Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)

The Lowdown: A lot of pundits seem hung up on this one, and I kind of get it.  With this branch's tendency to pick at least one international feature director (and three films-Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, & The Secret Agent-all looking like Best Picture nominees), it's hard to guess who gets in and who gets the cut.  I'm going with Panahi because his film is so in their wheelhouse (the other two are more actorly triumphs), and I'm cutting Josh Safdie to get there because the Academy has never really shown a penchant for the Safdies before, and even though they will now...by how much?

Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)

3. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)

4. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

5. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

Alts: Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

The Lowdown: I think the battle for the winner here is still in-the-air (I'm not buying a Chalamet sweep yet, even if that's the likeliest end-game here), but the battle for the nominees feels...done?  Jordan's the  most vulnerable mostly because he's been worthy before, and Oscar didn't bite.  He's never had this strong of a movie to go with, but playing two characters in a major Best Picture nominee (one that made a fortune and proved him a continued movie star?...that's what gets you your first Best Actor nomination).  Edgerton has been on the edges of this category for a long time (and Plemons is in a movie that the industry clearly likes more than most pundits initially expected), but Jordan not getting in would be such a big deal I doubt it comes to pass.

Actress

1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

2. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)

3. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)

4. Emma Stone (Bugonia)

5. Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another)

Alts: Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)

The Lowdown: My working theory, to the point I've written about it on this blog (you can see it here) is that Kate Hudson has been a strong bet for months to get in and pundits aren't taking her seriously because she's not a critical darling, and we've lost the ancient texts of what Oscar voters look for (i.e. box office populism) and while others are surely coming around to her after SAG, I want to claim confidence first.  If she's included, you have to disrupt one of the five women who have totally dominated this year, and I think Reinsve (who is the lead in a movie SAG didn't care about) makes more sense than the lead in a Best Picture frontrunner or two-time winner Emma Stone.  I had Infiniti up until today, and I think she could be the shock omission...but I'm not willing to predict it.

Supporting Actor (Sentimental Value)

1. Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)

2. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)

3. Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)

4. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

5. Delroy Lindo (Sinners)

Alts: Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly)

The Lowdown: Speaking of 2000's movie stars who have not yet secured a lead acting nomination, we have Adam Sandler as one of the most inexplicable omissions of the season.  Sandler has done decently at precursor awards, and his film is SO up Oscar's alley (if there's a surprise film that over-performs on Thursday, Jay Kelly surely fits that bill), but no one seems to care about it, and he's not "esteemed" enough to make it into an Oscar race on his own so I'm doing one of my biggest surprises (and my one acting prediction without a Globe or a SAG nomination) with Delroy Lindo getting in, here over both Sandler and Mescal (who I am precluding because I think enough people will put him in lead that he'll miss).  Lindo is one of those character actors who feels inevitable with Oscar...in a Best Picture nominee this would be a good opportunity to invite him to the club.

Supporting Actress

1. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

2. Amy Madigan (Weapons)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)

4. Odessa A'zion (Marty Supreme)

5. Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)

Alts: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)

The Lowdown: I honestly think only Taylor is totally safe (and her recent Globes win indicates this feels like she's the frontrunner).  Madigan's in a genre film, Lilleaas has internal competition (and is a pretty subtle performance for Oscar)...A'zion also has internal competition, and no one other than Grande seems to care about her film's Oscar chances anymore (Erivo didn't even bother showing up for the Globes).  This seems like the sort of category ripe for an upset (not just an alternate like the ones I listed, but something crazy like Chase Infiniti pulling a reverse Keisha Castle-Hughes and getting in here or Emily Watson randomly scoring for Hamnet).  I truly hope this is something crazy, given so much of the Top 6 seems to be pretty staid.

Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another

2. Hamnet

3. Frankenstein

4. Bugonia

5. Train Dreams

Alts: No Other Choice

The Lowdown: The ten-wide races have honestly made the writing categories SUCH a snore (this is true of a lot of the fields, but especially writing), as there was once a time movies would only get writing nominations, and that honestly could've made something like No Other Choice, the only movie I think is a real threat to take on an otherwise pretty predictable Top 5, a sole nominee (as I think its International Feature citation is on shaky ground).  Also, with Yorgos Lanthimos getting yet another nomination here, he has to be on the shortlist of the next Director that will pull a Nolan/del Toro (and soon a PTA) and get his "year" of finally getting a gold statue.

Original Screenplay

1. Sinners

2. It Was Just an Accident

3. Marty Supreme

4. Sentimental Value

5. The Secret Agent

Alts: Sorry Baby, Jay Kelly

The Lowdown: You see what I mean about the writing categories being carbon copies of the Best Picture race, right?  There is a VERY real possibility that the only writing nominees will be the ten films nominated for Best Picture.  The Secret Agent getting beaten by Sorry Baby or Jay Kelly, quite frankly, also feels like an odd situation-it's very writerly (it's literally about chronicling one man's life), and despite Julia Roberts pleas, I'm not sure enough people have seen these movies for them to care.  If there's not a mirror matchup, it'll be because some movies like Wicked or Avatar made the Best Picture lineup...I feel like I will be 10/10 with writing.

Animated Feature Film

1. KPop Demon Hunters

2. Zootopia 2

3. Arco

5. Little Amelie or the Character of Rain

5. Elio

Alts: In Your Dreams, The Bad Guys 2

Note: For reasons I can't entirely explain (it seems it wasn't submitted), global phenomenon Ne Zha 2 wasn't eligible, otherwise I'd probably have listed it given it was the year's biggest film.

The Lowdown: I cannot remember the last time I had less of a read on the Animated Feature race.  I've only seen three of these films (I should probably get to at least one more this weekend), and it's weird how there's not a lot of critical buzz around the smaller films (it's mostly just Disney, K-Pop, and a bunch of movies few people have seen) where it feels like they're standing out.  Honestly, an underwhelming year for animation, and why I think that Pixar squeezes in mostly because it's at least another movie that was released wide in theaters.  Similar to Despicable Me 2 a few years ago, I'm not predicting it but wouldn't be totally surprised if the sleeper hit The Bad Guys 2 gets in with such a slow year even if its predecessor missed.

International Feature Film

1. It Was Just an Accident (France)

2. Sentimental Value (Norway)

3. The Secret Agent (Brazil)

4. Sirat (Spain)

5. No Other Choice (South Korea)

Alts: Sound of Falling (Germany), The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

The Lowdown: As I said above, I think No Other Choice is on shaky ground here, mostly because this would be SUCH a specifically populist lineup (all of these movies have played in theaters in the US in a decent number of theaters, and all of them are threats for nominations in other categories).  This isn't usually how Oscar goes.  With the exception of last year, there's always at least one film that's waiting in the wings.  Sound of Falling is a country Oscar likes, while The Voice of Hind Rajab is the kind of out-of-left-field drama (excuse me, docudrama) that is this category's raison d'être: shining a light on a movie you've never even heard of before.

Score

1. Sinners

2. One Battle After Another

3. Hamnet

4. F1

5. Jay Kelly

Alts: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

The Lowdown: Okay, here's my logic.  My working theory is that former Academy favorite Alexandre Desplat, who works CONSTANTLY but hasn't had an Oscar nomination in several years (despite working on showy Oscar-nominated films like The Midnight Sky, Pinocchio, & Nyad) will be the surprise miss of the morning under the working theory the branch is mad at him, and he doesn't get in for Frankenstein...which breaks into my other working theory, that Jay Kelly (otherwise forgotten) will randomly get one tech nomination because it's too good of a movie (and too up Oscar's alley) not to score somewhere.

Original Song

1. "Golden" (KPop Demon Hunters)

2. "I Lied to You" (Sinners)

3. "Dear Me" (Diane Warren: Relentless)

4. "Salt Then Sour Then Sweet" (Come See Me in the Good Light)

5. "The Girl in the Bubble" (Wicked: For Good)

Alts: "Train Dreams" (Train Dreams), "Drive" (F1)

The Lowdown: My next working theory is that Nick Cave, who has bizarrely never gotten an Oscar nomination despite regular work in films that I know Academy voters are watching, is also something of a music branch pariah (this was, weirdly, a working theory on Desplat until he finally made it into the conversation in 2006 after years of exceptional work), and will miss for Train Dreams here.  That leaves room for Ariana Grande to get double-nominations, as her film seems to be the stronger of the two contenders.  Diane Warren will get predicted until that pattern finally breaks, and her film randomly getting listed for Best Score is a sign it won't.

Sound

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. F1

4. Avatar: Fire & Ash

5. Frankenstein

Alts: Wicked: For Good, Sirat

The Lowdown: I don't have a great gage on Avatar: Fire & Ash's strength in this field, and that's why I'm putting it in here but not many other places.  The first film won 9 Oscar nominations (and three wins) while the second just got four (with one win)...both got into Best Picture, though, which I don't think Fire & Ash will do.  I don't, however, think it goes home with just its gimme Visual Effects nomination, so I'm putting it here alongside Frankenstein even though Sirat did pretty well in the shortlists, and Wicked 2 is a musical (something they love here).

Casting

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Marty Supreme

4. Sentimental Value

5. Hamnet

Alts: Frankenstein, Wake Up Dead Man, The Secret Agent

The Lowdown: I'm allowing myself three alternates here (usually I max out at two) because this is a brand-new category, and it's hard to tell what they should do.  My working theory is that this is just a dumping ground to run up the score for Best Picture nominees (this has, admittedly, been what most of these categories have turned into), in which case these five plus Frankenstein makes what we'll probably end up with in this field.  However, I will allow this could be a case where a super buzzy cast might make it into the field (something like Wake Up Dead Man would fit this bill), as well as something where there's a genuinely impressive feat being mounted by the casting director with getting a mix of stars and unknowns (The Secret Agent).  We shall see.

Cinematography

1. Sinners

2. One Battle After Another

3. Frankenstein

4. Train Dreams

5. Nouvelle Vague

Alts: F1, Hamnet

The Lowdown: Can I be honest?  Cinematography (along with Visual Effects) are my two favorite tech categories, and I left this year's lineup a little...underwhelmed?  This isn't just about Oscar's lineup, but I think in general there was less of interest than you'd expect (in a surprisingly strong year for movies), and I think that will partially end up with Oscar picking showy stuff like Frankenstein against something a bit subtler like Hamnet because they're already curious about the quality and will want to cover their butt (despite it having the opposite effect) by nominating "most cinematography."  And when they pick a "most" cinematography, they usually pick a black-and-white movie which is where Nouvelle Vague is coming from.

Costume Design

1. Frankenstein

2. Sinners

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Hamnet

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Alts: One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme

The Lowdown: The big questions I have here are around Wicked: For Good (if it totally falters, this could fall, but even if it scores nowhere else I think it makes it here), and then Kiss of the Spider Woman.  This category is one of the few that cares considerably more about the film itself than the box office (it nominates flops relatively regularly), and I think that Spider Woman has an old-Holllywood glamour that could be catnip here, especially compared to the more modern takes in One Battle or Marty Supreme.  Hamnet is in-between them because it's a period film without a lot of particularly showy period costumes (we spend so much time with the middle-class, there's no grand ball gowns that would normally make this irresistible to AMPAS).

Film Editing

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Marty Supreme

4. F1

5. Hamnet

Alts: It Was Just An Accident, Sentimental Value

The Lowdown: I mentioned F1 in the Best Picture lineup, but I will note it has a lot of heat in a lot of categories, and maybe it's not crazy to think it could get in there?  One of the key testing grounds will be here, where virtually every contender is a Best Picture threat, and that's true of all of the other six films I listed.  Hamnet is vulnerable because it's a small film (unlike F1 where it's all about whether Oscar will choose a movie that isn't a gimme for Best Picture), but so is Sentimental Value, so if it leaves I kind of think it'll be for the ticking clock effect of It Was Just an Accident.

Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein

2. The Smashing Machine

3. Sinners

4. Kokuho

5. Nuremberg

Alts: One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good

The Lowdown: All logic goes out the window when it comes to Makeup, as they play by a different set of rules.  Here, if a subtitled film you've never heard of makes it into the shortlist, you nominate it...even if you've never heard of it, and so Kokuho is now headed to "Oscar-nominated" status in my book.  The same can be said for a famous movie star recreating a famous person, and I think Russell Crowe as Hermann Goring makes more sense to guess than Robert de Niro as Frank Costello.  One Battle After Another and Wicked: For Good would be more logical choices for a different branch...but that wouldn't be respecting the bonkers nature of the Makeup department.

Production Design

1. Frankenstein

2. Marty Supreme

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Sinners

5. Hamnet

Alts: Avatar: Fire & Ash, Bugonia

The Lowdown: This is one of two tech categories (along with the next one) where I actually think Sinners is in trouble.  The top three are so completely in Oscar's wheelhouse, and with tech categories saying there's more than three locks is stuff amateurs do (there's never that many locks unless you have a ten-wide shortlist).  It's particularly interesting because Sinners largely takes place in one building for the back half of the movie, while Bugonia, Avatar, and Hamnet have increasingly expanded worlds.  Of those three I'm going with Hamnet because production design is a crucial component of the movie's final scenes, but any of those three would make sense.

Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. F1

3. Frankenstein

4. The Lost Bus

5. Superman

Alts: Sinners, Wicked: For Good

The Lowdown: We finish this with my favorite tech category (some days my favorite category period), and one that a few months ago I wrote about how we had just two films that were guaranteed to make the shortlist: Avatar and Wicked.  I was right about both, but they went in with very different momentum-Avatar looks certain to take the prize, while Wicked is so on the outs, I can't in good faith predict it for an actual nomination.  Alongside Production Design, this feels like Sinners biggest problem, and since I guessed it there, I'm leaving it out here.  So I'm keeping both of those two pictures (one of which I haven't seen yet as of this writing, but will this week), and taking out a major Best Picture contender and a film that once looked like a juggernaut.

Final Sinners Count: I have it getting 14.  It's clearly in a position where it could pick up 1-2 more (Supporting Actress & Visual Effects stand out as places I had it as an also-ran), but it's also vulnerable in enough (Actor, Supporting Actor, in my opinion Production Design) that I'd probably bet on it tying rather than beating the record...but it'll be close.