All right, I did not honestly expect my first day back at work to have not just a major political story, but a major one in my backyard which I can't possibly ignore, so we're going to dive right in and if it's news to you, well, I'll catch you up on what's happening in the Minnesota Governor's race.
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| Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) |
This morning, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D-MN), who rose to national prominence in 2024 as Kamala Harris's running-mate, has announced he will no longer seek reelection for a third term in Minnesota. Walz had announced that he would run late last year, but for a variety of factors (some we'll get to now, some at #5 on this list), Walz has decided not to pursue a third term.
Walz's announcement comes on the heels of Republicans repeatedly attacking him on a scandal involving daycare fraud, a video of which went viral when YouTuber Nick Shirley claimed that daycares in Somali neighborhoods were taking money from the government. This came on the heels of the Walz administration being reluctant to push against the nonprofit Feeding Our Future, which has ties to the Somali-American community (a prominent population in the Twin Cities), over fraud accusations, which eventually led to the Biden administration arresting and charging a number of people involved in this scandal. Walz has stated (correctly) that they had pushed harder in 2025 against fraud, including at least one of the locations highlighted in Shirley's video, but this appeared to be a ballooning scandal, and GOP members of the Minnesota State legislature had pushed for Walz to resign.
Walz alluded (in part) to this scandal during his speech, so I'm going to chalk it up to (at least in part) why he stepped away, and I'll get to why I think there are more pressing reasons he did in a second, but I think it's worth noting that this is not similar to Joe Biden's reelection campaign last year. This scandal was not going to hurt Walz enough to cost him reelection, and I think he knew that, which is why I think other things were going to be at play. Some have compared Walz to Biden, so I want to state on record-I don't think Walz would've had any issue winning a third term with these scandals, and while they could've served as a distraction, had he run, he would've won (something I do not believe about Biden).
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| Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) |
It appears that Walz leaving will be a nightmare-in-disguise for the MN GOP, as US Senator Amy Klobuchar appears likely to enter the race. Klobuchar is, by pretty much every major, the most popular politician in the state, likely the most popular politician in Minnesota since Arne Carlson in the 1990's, and would steamroll into the Governor's Mansion should she win. Klobuchar's name has been thrown around frequently for the governor's race in the past, and it's not a surprise that she seems like she'll consider it. It would also be historic-Minnesota has never had a female governor, a streak she would break if she were to run.
Given the impending blue wave, the MN GOP was always going to struggle in holding the split government (currently the Republicans have the State House while Democrats have the other two prongs of the trifecta), but with Klobuchar in the race, it'd be a lost cause. In fact, with the Minnesota GOP looking like it could nominate conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell as their candidate, against Klobuchar this could be similar to the recent gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, where she would be in a position to win by 15-20 points, something that would decimate the remaining Republicans representing the exurbs and suburbs in the state (which is the only way they have a shot at a majority given how most of the population growth in the Gopher State has been in the Twin Cities in recent years). By getting rid of Walz, the Republican Party could well have spelled their own doom in Minnesota, and given a woman who clearly still has national ambitions a blue trifecta that would be very attractive on a presidential ticket in 2028 or 2032.
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| Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI) and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) |
Klobuchar stepping away from the Senate (if she does, which seems awfully likely right now) would take a name out of the already small hat of candidates who could succeed Chuck Schumer as Democratic leader. Schumer is not up for reelection until 2028, and given the collegial nature of the Senate (and that he seems poised to pickups seats in 2026), it's probable he stays as leader until then. But Schumer is 75-years-old, and his popularity with the base has waned during Trump's second term. Retirement seems probable in 2028, and even if he doesn't, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would be an even-bet (maybe even a favorite) to beat him in a primary that year. Either way-that would set up a situation where the Senate leader position would be open for the Democrats.
Klobuchar would've been a solid bet for that job. She's the Chair of Steering & Policy, and widely respected as an effective legislator. If she steps away, it appears likely that the race to succeed Schumer (given many members of the leadership are also quite old) would go between the establishment choice of Brian Schatz (D-HI), progressive Chris van Hollen (D-MD), who has become a hero of the left, and underdog candidate Martin Heinrich (D-NM) who has not so subtly endorsed candidates like Graham Platner, Mallory McMorrow, & Peggy Flanagan, all of whom (if you believe reports) are not favorites of Schumer's (i.e. candidates who, if they win, are unlikely to go for Schumer's chosen successor of Schatz). Klobuchar could've been a compromise candidate here, but with her gone, one wonders if we have a much messier race to follow Schumer.
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| Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) |
Speaking of Peggy Flanagan, if Klobuchar runs the Senate primary that is pitting her against Rep. Angie Craig would get significantly more complicated. I should note that even if Klobuchar doesn't run (in which case I'd imagine this is a rather bloody primary between Secretary of State Steve Simon and Attorney General Keith Ellison...a primary uncomfortable enough that I would imagine Klobuchar is keeping that in mind as she weighs her options), this race was already tricky. Flanagan has led in the one poll of the race (done almost a year ago...is there a GoFundMe I can sponsor to get another one?!?), but Craig has demolished Flanagan in fundraising, raising almost twice as much and with 3x more on-hand.
If Klobuchar runs, though, the math for both Flanagan & Craig gets tricky, as there's a Senate primary the entire state is running, and there's one that just Klobuchar is running. Craig, in particular, feels attuned to Klobuchar's style of politics, and would be a likely contender to replace Klobuchar if she runs and wins. I don't see a world where she would abandon her primary race (particularly given there's limited polling, so there's not a lot of public acknowledgement who is leading this race), but she might be more willing to step aside during Minnesota's powerful caucus endorsement process than just ignore it (as politicians, including Walz, have done in the past) given Flanagan is the favorite to get that endorsement. Craig would not be the only candidate to be considered (I would imagine Secretary of State Steve Simon would also be in the conversation, and potentially a former/current high-ranking Klobuchar staffer), but it would be a potential second place prize, and one that both women have to be considering in the tricky math here. It's also worth noting that if Klobuchar doesn't run for governor, Craig or Flanagan could consider switching races (something Craig might find intriguing).
I'll also note that Klobuchar not running changes the math on the Lieutenant Governor's race. It's possible that Craig might consider this (though I doubt it), but I had assumed that Walz would pick someone like Melisa Lopez Franzen (who was initially running in the Senate primary but dropped out). Now, with Klobuchar in, it's likely that she picks a male state legislator not from the Twin Cities (like State Sen. Aric Putnam) as her running-mate instead.
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| Gwen and Tim Walz |
I talked about this above, but I don't think that the only reason that Walz is stepping aside is because of scandal-I also think it's because of the heinous, cruel treatment that he has personally received from the Trump administration. Last year, one of Trump's closest friends & allies (House Speaker Melissa Hortman) was killed by a Trump supporter, and yet for months Trump has spread vicious conspiracy theories about Walz on Truth Social, saying that Walz was responsible for Hortman's death. He had done this as recently as this weekend, with Hortman's own orphaned children begging Trump to stop spreading this hate speech.
It's hard not to wonder if this weighed on Walz's mind, having seen his friend killed by someone who was a professed Trump supporter, and then watching as Trump encouraged his supporters to spread dangerous lies about him and his family. It's hard not to believe, in fact, that he did this in part because he was afraid of what Trump and his hate speech would do to his family. This is an ugly reality-but it also feels like reality. And it's a failure of the Democratic Party, in my opinion, that we were not able to protect him from this.
At the end of the day, Klobuchar will hold this seat for the Democrats, and I have confidence that Craig or Flanagan will hold the Senate seat. Hell-they might even have won by more now that Walz is gone. But it should scare the hell out of everyone that Trump was able to use violent hate speech and cruel lies to demonize the 2024 Democratic nominee for Vice President, someone who had telegraphed interest in a presidential run, into not seeking reelection to a seat he would've won. Because this feels an awful lot like they were testing a playbook to use against our nominees in 2028 when they run to succeed him.
1 comment:
It's really sad that the GOP's tactic worked so well against such a good man.
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