James Talarico Enters the Senate Race

State Rep. James Talarico (D-TX)

This upcoming week, it is expected that State Rep. James Talarico (D-TX) will jump into the Democratic Primary for US Senate against John Cornyn in the Lone Star State.  This has been telegraphed for months, and Talarico has even been doing media rounds, getting rave reviews for his appearance with Joe Rogan.  Talarico is clearly a talent, someone who initially ran for the State House in his state by literally running for the State House in his state (he walked the width of his district), flipping it blue in 2018 and holding onto it in 2020 before he was drawn into a much safer district.  He does a great job of courting both sides of the coin in Texas, regularly talking about his Presbyterian faith while also supporting LGBT rights and pro-choice stances.  In a lot of ways, he's exactly what we've been hoping for in Texas-a moderate Democrat who can theoretically pull together the kind of coalition that might be able to go blue in a friendly year.  No Democrat has won a US Senate race in Texas since 1988 (when Lloyd Bentsen won), despite high-profile candidates like Bob Krueger, Ron Kirk, & Beto O'Rourke all having a go.

Talarico's run, though, sets up a primary against former Rep. Colin Allred, who ran for the US Senate in 2024 against Ted Cruz and lost, and is already running for the US Senate in 2026.  This is the third very competitive primary the Democrats appear to be enduring between a current/former member of the US House, and a more progressive/rising star-style candidate who has never served in Congress.  In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is in a contest against Rep. Angie Craig, one where Flanagan has only received an endorsement from one sitting member of Congress (Elizabeth Warren) but a host of progressive figures in the state like Al Franken & Keith Ellison, while Craig has a more traditional backing, including from Sens. Tammy Baldwin, Ruben Gallego, & Andy Kim.  In Michigan, two progressive upstarts (State Sen. Mallory McMorrow and Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed) are facing off against Rep. Haley Stevens, who has gotten more of the establishment support.

Stevens, in particular, has drawn the sharpest commentary online, because of the man who hasn't officially endorsed her, but clearly seems to be interested in her for the Democratic nominee: Chuck Schumer.  In an article in July about the race, it was indicated that both Schumer and DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand not only want Stevens to be the nominee, they have also encouraged donors to get behind her candidacy.  This is something that isn't unexpected-the DSCC (and Schumer in particular) is famous for wading into competitive primaries, or for favoring candidates (now-Attorney General Jeff Jackson has talked about how he was convinced he shouldn't run for the US Senate by Schumer in 2020, as Schumer preferred the approach of State Sen. Cal Cunningham more).  The DSCC has not officially endorsed in the race because they don't want to piss off the base, but it's widely-assumed that Schumer & Gillibrand want Stevens as the nominee.  And given that Stevens has a similar profile to Craig & Allred (both are House members who have establishment support, and because it's now a much-discussed component of campaigns, have received endorsements from AIPAC in past races, and for Craig & Stevens, in their current one), they are being grouped together.

This isn't entirely fair, both because they're not all uniformly the same candidate quality nor that they're all the same ideologically (it's not even clear yet whether Talarico will run to Allred's right or left, even if Craig & Stevens are identifiably the moderates in their races).  Stevens, for example, is a dreadful retail politician, frequently making verbal slips on the campaign trail & struggling to raise money, while El-Sayed and especially McMorrow are superstars.  McMorrow seems to go viral online every time she opens her mouth, with people praising her, and (in my opinion) Schumer is missing the boat if he's not realizing that she's a potential star for his caucus, the rare liberal who seems to be able to speak authentically about kitchen table issues (and given she's not even 40 and running from a key swing state, she's an obvious national contender down the road if she wins this race).  Usually when someone does that in modern Democratic politics, they're doing it in the shadow of Bernie Sanders, but Sanders is endorsing El-Sayad...McMorrow is achieving that on her own.  Craig, on the other hand, is a much better political speaker, and one could argue a more practiced politician than Flanagan (who is famous in Minnesota circles not just for being progressive, but also for currently being in a heavy enough feud with Tim Walz that he hasn't endorsed her despite running with her statewide twice).  It's also noteworthy that in both cases polls haven't really caught up with the campaigns-limited numbers show Flanagan in the lead, but not by enough Craig couldn't catch up (and the same with Stevens over her two opponents, who are at this point clearly splitting the vote to Stevens' advantage).

Which brings us back to Texas.  In my opinion, Talarico is the best option here.  Allred was recently rejected by voters, and even if that was in a tough environment, Talarico is the kind of star power we haven't tried in Texas...if the state is a state we haven't won in 35 years, we need to try new things to see if they might work, and I think he's the candidate.  But I am curious as this race unfolds if it becomes another establishment vs. upstart contest like we're seeing in Michigan & Minnesota...and if Chuck Schumer's favorite will soon become apparent.