The Democratic Party Meets Graham Platner

Sergeant Graham Platner (D-ME)

Democrats love nothing more than a candidate who doesn't act like a Democrat.  In 2016, Jason Kander had what has to be considered one of the most-lauded Senate campaign ads in years when he talked about taking on his Republican opponent while also taking apart a gun (training from his time in the US Army).  In her 2018 House campaign, Amy McGrath was lauded for being a "different type of politician" with her combination of blue collar appeal & military experience and came close to flipping the seat.  The same could be said for Air Force veteran MJ Hegar that same year in Texas.  So it is not a surprise to me that, this past week, Graham Platner's effective rough-and-tumble candidate (once again with a military background) had euphoric social media love and Democrats' falling over themselves over another "different kind of politician."  But it does mean that we need to take a quick swig of reality, both about how these campaigns usually go...and Platner's chances (both the good and the bad).

First-and-foremost, I picked the three candidates I just listed for two reasons.  First, they all are similar to Platner in terms of aesthetics in their viral campaign ads (high-profile, well-funded campaigns featuring blue-collar bonafides and legitimate military credentials).  This is not something to take lightly.  Someone like, say, Sen. John Fetterman, was able to go far in politics by being using his blue-collar aesthetic so well, and military service has helped congressman like Jason Crow, Don Davis, & Jared Golden win swing seats in the Trump Era.  But the second thing they all had in common-they all over-performed but ultimately lost their races.  We are in an era where candidates do matter, but the label behind someone's name matters more, as does money.  Platner, like McGrath & Hegar (Kander was Secretary of State when he ran), is a political novice, one who has not been vetted by the national media (first-time candidates are rarely as talented as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and more often make missteps or have scandals that are unearthed), and no matter how impressive the team behind him is, proclaiming him the second coming or "the candidate we should go with" as some online were saying, feels insanely premature, and honestly, irresponsible.

After all, this is a seat the Democrats have to win, and while he isn't trying to win over historically red territory (Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, & Hillary Clinton all won Maine), he's against one of the most impressive candidates in the country: Susan Collins.  Collins is a national punchline for Democrats, but that doesn't negate she's very competent, and knows Maine much better than any other candidate.  Every time you read about her retail politicking skills, the journalist following her comes across impressed-the kind of politician who can walk into a Maine city hall and know the names of every person she's shaking hands with.  There's a reason she was able to win her state with Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden all gliding to victory further up the ticket.  Platner could be the candidate who takes her down, and I do think she's vulnerable, but pretending she'll be easy to beat is insane, and we should push for the best candidate.

That candidate is probably Gov. Janet Mills.  Mills' age (she's 77) and perceivable antipathy toward running don't deny the fact that, as a two-time statewide official, she's the best option the Democrats have, and to pretend that Chuck Schumer should stop pressuring her to run with Platner in the race is madness.  First off, Platner would lose to her (she'd get incumbent-style numbers given her sky-high approval ratings), and secondly, the Democrats can't really afford to take risks here.  The Senate math for them is hard the next six years with so many solidly red states.  There's no universe where Democrats can allow a Clinton/Biden/Harris state have a Republican senator...Collins has to go if we don't want to severely handicap our chances at a majority not just in 2026, but also in 2028 & 2030.  If Mills runs, she's the best option, and Platner acolytes are going to need to adjust to that.

Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA)

But what I do admire about Platner is that he didn't wait, because sometimes, that pays off.  If Mills doesn't run, it's unlikely Platner gets this primary to himself-Senate seats are too valuable & rare to just hand-off to a novice.  Most assume that Attorney General Aaron Frey will run, but unlike in most states, the Maine Attorney General position is not elected (Frey was appointed by Mills) so he doesn't have the natural relationship with voters that Mills will have.  Frey would probably be preferred by the DSCC as they like known quantities, but against Frey, Platner would have a better shot to prove if he has what it takes, and by doing this early, he's gaining ground.  Mills is famous enough that she can wait as long as she wants and remain the frontrunner...but Frey has a ticking clock attached to his "second choice" status that he can't really afford to let another star take.

A good example of this is what is happening in California's Governor's race.  For months, it looked like everyone in the Golden State contest was playing for also-ran status, as Vice President Kamala Harris (like Mills) was someone that would win no matter when she entered the race.  Indeed, some figures like AG Rob Bonta and Sen. Laphonza Butler totally skipped the race rather than risk Harris pushing them out.  But former Rep. Katie Porter, coming off of a disappointing third-place finish in the 2024 Senate primary, did enter the race, getting in without waiting for Harris.  This was seen as foolish by some (including me), but had a genius to its madness.  Had Harris run, Porter's career (especially after her last loss) would've been over (most candidates can't come back from two losses).  But with Harris gone, a weak field in a very blue state is slowly starting to look like Porter's.  She's led in every poll this year, and with Republicans taking the #2 and #3 slots (former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, State Controller Betty Yee, State Senate President Pro Tempore Toni Atkins, and LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa aren't catching fire), the Democrats are in a bind.  It's pretty clear that the powers-that-be do not want Porter as their nominee.  Most weren't impressed with how she handled her loss in 2024 (she lost a lot of respect from me as well, and I had endorsed her in that race), but other candidates aren't catching steam.  Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, who had endorsements from Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, & Barbara Boxer, withdrew from the race rather than continue to poll poorly against Porter.  California's unusual top-two primary combined with Republicans being in #2 & #3 polling slots (i.e. worry that if the Democrats splinter the vote they won't have a candidate in the general) means that if Democrats get nervous, they'll back an unpopular frontrunner rather than risk the seat going red, which will benefit Porter who, like Graham Platner, didn't wait for her turn.  I'll be honest-this doesn't usually work (Platner is betting pretty hard that Mills won't run and that he can beat someone more experienced like Frey if she doesn't), but Katie Porter proves that this is the kind of campaign move can sometimes pay dividends.  We'll have to wait until next year, though, to understand if this bet will pay off.