Hey there! I am currently in the middle of starting a new job, which is why I haven't had a lot of time on the blog recently, but know that A) you're getting a political article today and B) you're going to be getting another My Ballot shortly as I am only five films away from us finally getting through 1948. Today, I wanted to discuss two major pieces of news coming out of Wisconsin and North Carolina, where we got both the announcement that Gov. Tony Evers will officially retire in Wisconsin, while we got confirmation from pretty much everyone in the political world that former Gov. Roy Cooper will announce his campaign for the US Senate on Monday, creating what may be the Democrats' best chance at a pickup in the US Senate next year.
 |
| Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) |
Tony Evers has been in public office in Wisconsin since 2009, and has been in politics much longer (he is that rare candidate who ran twice for higher office before finally winning it, as we discussed a bit more here). The mild-mannered Evers won in 2018 by doing something Democrats had tried three times (in vain) to do-defeat Scott Walker. Evers won in part because 2018 was a terrible year to run as a Republican in a swing state (it was telling that two years after Donald Trump won the state, Evers would foretell more losses to come for Trump by winning), but he has had a huge impact on the state, particularly on the Supreme Court & through his use of the veto. Evers will leave office with fair legislative maps, and will be doing so in a cycle that should be (similar to 2018) good for Democrats, so there's a decent chance that this race stays blue (though Evers leaving moves it from Lean Dem to Tossup, it's a Tossup that's slightly more favorable to the Democrats than the Republicans on paper, and means if they win they'll have an incumbent in the much murkier looking 2030 cycle).
 |
| Attorney General Josh Kaul (D-WI) |
Democrats pretty quickly started to float trial balloons and even announce runs after Evers left (I always think it's telling which candidates have videos ready right-out-of-the-gate, implying that Evers gave them a head's up this is coming even if it ultimately doesn't come with an endorsement). Both of Evers' lieutenant governors, Mandela Barnes (his first term) and Sara Rodriguez (his second term) announced they were interested, and Rodriguez is already in the race (I would assume Barnes has a tougher hill to climb, given he lost a very high-profile race in 2022 to Ron Johnson, and no other major Democrat is going to be billed "we tried that, it didn't work" as easily as him), and other names like State Sen. Kelda Roys and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley floated their interest. Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski will also be floated, but I'm going to guess she seeks reelection and runs for Ron Johnson's seat in 2028, given that she's appointed and also lost her last race (to Barnes in the 2022 primary) so she has more to prove, and unlike Barnes, has a race already lined up in which she can do so.
But the name that I'm watching is Josh Kaul. Generally the best job to launch into a Governor's race from is Attorney General, a position he's held for two terms. Kaul has long been floated as a potential candidate for higher-office, and many (including me) assumed he turned down the chance to run against Johnson in 2022 because he was looking at this race. Kaul would start out as the frontrunner-he's higher-profile than Rodriguez, and doesn't come with Barnes' baggage. If he runs, I'd bet on him to take it, and probably knock a few names out of the race (potentially just getting it down to he & Rodriguez in the A-Tier).
 |
| Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) |
The Republican bench, on the other hand, is not as established. The only statewide Republicans are Sen. Ron Johnson (who already declined the race), and State Treasurer John Lieber (who weirdly no one is floating for the governor's race, despite him being an obvious contender, to the point where I wonder if he has already said no...it's worth noting that State Treasurer in Wisconsin is not a particularly powerful office so he might be more interested in going after Kaul's position if he wants a promotion). The two biggest names that we're looking at are Rep. Tom Tiffany and Gov. Scott Walker. My gut says that Tiffany ultimately declines-2026 is a tough year for the Republicans already, and he has a safe House seat (though Tiffany is 67...he might just want to try his luck given his political career could be entering its final chapters regardless). Walker, though, made a point on Twitter of making a comparison to Donald Trump (Walker, like Trump, would be both the 45th & 47th Governor of Wisconsin were he to win again). It's hard to tell if Walker was serious about this or if this was just a Twitter joke, though I would assume Wisconsin Republicans would be interested in him running (most of their bench is not looking at this race, and with a trifecta on the table for Democrats in 2026 for the first time in decades, they need a decent gubernatorial candidate). Walker would be a fascinating candidate, though his teflon era of the 2010's is obviously over (as proven by Evers).
 |
| Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) |
Wisconsin was not the only state with big news this week-we had what might be the settling of one of the marquee Senate races of 2026. In North Carolina, both former Gov. Roy Cooper and sitting RNC Chair Michael Whatley signaled that an announcement is coming next week that they are both running.
Cooper's running is a sigh-of-relief both for Democrats and (in particular) Chuck Schumer & Kirsten Gillibrand, who are leading the Democrats' efforts to win back the Senate next year. Cooper was the glossy nominee (in five races, he's never lost a statewide contest in North Carolina), the single most important recruit of the cycle, and it wasn't clear a few months ago that this would happen, so I need to tip my hat to Schumer/Gillibrand for making this reality (tips of my hat in their direction has been rare lately, so take it & run with it). Cooper's entry has already gotten former Rep. Wiley Nickel to drop his Senate bid, and I suspect the Democrats' will clear the field for the former governor, their best shot at winning a Senate seat since 2008. Similar to Wisconsin, this is still a "Tossup" but it's a Tossup that I'd pick the Democrats to win with a gun to my head.
The Republicans also have a high-profile candidate in RNC Chair Michael Whatley. Whatley's announcement comes after his predecessor in that job, President Trump's daughter-in-law Lara Trump, declined the race. Whatley is not (on paper) the kind of field-clearer that Cooper is, but I wonder if he might still have the race to himself at this point. Cooper is such a powerhouse, 2026 is looking to be a tough year for Republicans, and there's the Governor's mansion to look at in 2028 (not to mention, if Cooper wins, it's unlikely he stays for more than a term), so the cavalcade of GOP House members former-and-current who are rumored for this seat (Pat Harrigan, Dan Bishop, George Holding, Tim Moore) might just want to keep their powder dry for a more winnable contest.
 |
| Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) |
In the wake of Cooper's announcement, the big news wasn't that Cooper was getting in, but that he might bring another candidate with him. Burgess Everett, a political reporter for Semafor, tweeted that Cooper's longtime friend Janet Mills (the Governor of Maine) seems likelier to get in with him running for the Senate, and Democrats are increasingly bullish that Mills will decide to seek office against Susan Collins. Like Cooper, Mills is far older than your average Senate freshman (she's a decade even more senior than the North Carolinian), but she'd start out as a clear-the-field candidate for the Democratic Primary, and give the left a candidate who has never lost a statewide race in her home state. I also wonder if both Cooper & Mills are not eyeing 2026, but 2028 (and not in the way you think). A good Senate cycle for the Democrats in 2026 could portend a very real possibility that they'd have a trifecta in 2029 to not just counter a lot of the legislation that Donald Trump will have passed, but also to make a dent in a large amount of major legislation that has been on the left's wish list for a while. Cooper & Mills would probably be one-term senators, but if they're thinking of their Wikipedia pages (i.e. their legacy) being a one-term senator who got two years of a trifecta would be a huge way to end their long political careers.
No comments:
Post a Comment