Well, we have yet another Senate retirement happening in New Hampshire, and as we have for the last three retirements (the average-per-cycle is five, and with Dick Durbin heavily rumored to be next, we should meet that, if not exceed it, at this point as Trump Fatigue settles into the upper chamber) we are going to do a rundown of what that means for both parties with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen forgoing a fourth term in the Senate.
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| Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) |
Shaheen's retirement is not a surprise for a variety of reasons, particularly given her age (she will be 79 during next year's election, making her considerably older than Sens. Tina Smith & Gary Peters who are also retiring this cycle). People are saying this is a "blow" for Democrats, but I'm going to be completely honest-I think that this might be a scenario where Dems are getting a blessing-in-disguise. The assumption that the incumbent is always the best candidate got upended in a spectacular (and eventually horrifying) way for the left last year when Joe Biden's age became the central issue of the campaign. Shaheen is just a couple of years younger than Biden, and coming in the wake of Biden, Dianne Feinstein, and the frequent issues with Mitch McConnell as Senate leader, Democrats shouldn't assume that running a tough race (which Shaheen may have been in for-more on that in a second) would've been better with Shaheen as their nominee.
That said, Shaheen would've been the favorite, and goes out a real icon. Those who have followed this blog for a while know that she's had a lot of chapters in her career. The first woman in American history to serve as both Governor and Senator of a state (the only other since then has been her co-senator Maggie Hassan), she was on the shortlist for Al Gore's running-mate in 2000 (given she would've carried New Hampshire, had he picked her he likely would've become president), and ran for the Senate in 2002 against John Sununu. In a rough night for the Democrats, this loss was particularly rough given that Republicans had, during the campaign, used a telemarketing firm to jam a Dem call bank that was canvassing for Shaheen (it would result in multiple Republicans being sentenced to prison, and accusations from some that they stole the seat...for the record, Donald Trump, this is what an actually rigged election looks like). Shaheen would get her revenge six years later by beating Sununu in the 2008 wave, and has been in the Senate ever since.
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| Gov. Chris Sununu (D-NH) |
Speaking of Sununu, the big name in this race is his baby brother Chris, the former New Hampshire Governor whom the NRSC will now heavily court to run for the open seat. Sununu would be the best chance the Republicans have of flipping this seat (I would go so far as to say the only chance they have), but I do have some doubts on whether he'd run, and if he would, whether he'd ultimately win even though he'd be a big recruiting coup.
Sununu turned down the chance to run in 2022 against Sen. Hassan, which was a much better environment for him to run, instead choosing to campaign for reelection (at the time, I thought this saved the seat though given Hassan's end margin it's possible Sununu made the right call here). In 2026, though, the environment would historically favor the Democrats, and this is a Harris state-the last time that a governor won an open Senate seat in a state that their party lost the previous cycle was Joe Manchin in 2010, and that was holding a seat (the last governor to flip a state his party lost in the previous presidential cycle was Evan Bayh in 1998). Since then we've seen everyone from Linda Lingle to Bob Kerrey to Evan Bayh to Phil Bredesen to Steve Bullock to Larry Hogan attempt to do this, and all of them without luck. Democrats are admittedly trying to do the same thing with Roy Cooper in North Carolina, but they have the "advantage" of not having the White House (and North Carolina is swingier than New Hampshire). Perhaps the biggest reason to go for Sununu is there's virtually no bench for Republicans here-their next best option would be former Sen. Scott Brown...former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, who lost to Shaheen in 2014.
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| Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) |
On the Democratic side, the #1 name is Chris Pappas, the four-term congressman who represents one of New Hampshire's two districts. Despite being only 44, Pappas has been in politics for decades, currently as a House member but previously as a County Treasurer, State Representative, & Executive Council-member. Pappas is widely-expected to run for the seat, and it's possible that he would clear the field. Pappas would become the first openly gay man to serve in the Senate (there have been multiple queer women, but the only openly-queer man in the US Senate, Harris Wofford, came out of the closet after he served), and will surely tout his victory over Trump's Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt in his 2022 reelection bid. With Annie Kuster's retirement last cycle, he would be seen as the heir apparent to the position...
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| Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-NH) |
However, I do think there's room to play here if another Democrat wanted to go for it. Pappas, because his seat is relatively swing-y, has a more moderate record than you'd expect for a Democrat who is looking at a competitive seat in a relatively blue state. He voted against the legalization of cannabis (one of only six House Democrats to do so) in 2020, supported the Laken Riley Act, voted to end the national emergency status of Covid-19 in 2023 (one of only 12 Democrats to do so), and was the only LGBTQ+ member of Congress to vote for a bill that would strip health care access from transgender children of military members. This is a lot of moderate positions that were essential to running in his district...they're also positions that would be super easy to exploit in a congressional race.
The problem for progressives seeking an alternative is that one will need to run, and one on the scale of Pappas. Kuster is apparently interested in the seat...but only if Pappas doesn't run. Executive Councilor Karen Liot Hill is too new to office, Joyce Craig just endured a very high-profile loss in the gubernatorial race, and former Gov. John Lynch is too old. If there's a candidate, I suspect it'll be Pappas House colleague Maggie Goodlander. Goodlander, at 38, is young and might just want to wait for another opportunity...but Senate races don't happen very often & even with just one term under her belt, the idea of running to Pappas's left in a primary has to be tempting for the former Biden administration official who got her job in the first place by defying New Hampshire's expected order for the seat (Kuster and many other prominent New Hampshire Democrats endorsed her rival in the primary Colin van Ostern). Emily's List, who endorsed Goodlander in that race, would likely view this as a key place to replace Shaheen with another pro-choice woman. Personally, if I was Goodlander I'd go for it-the odds don't favor her, but you could see a clear path where they do.
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| Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) |
The next question remains-who is next? As I said above, we are nearing the cycle average already, which is pretty early in the cycle to do so. I think the big name I'm watching right now is Sen. Dick Durbin, who turned 80 this past November and is widely-expected to not just retire, but open up a floodgate in Illinois as the bench in the Land of Lincoln is deep. Other Democrats that still feel up in the air include Mark Warner (VA) & Jeff Merkley (OR), though I honestly think if we get a name after Durbin, it'll probably be a Republican like Jim Risch. That said, there are some older Democrats that look to be running for reelection-both Ed Markey & Jack Reed, despite being in Shaheen's age bracket, are intending to run for another term...though in Markey's case, I still wonder if he can make it through the primary without someone trying to make an example of him in a post-Biden dropout era.
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