The Nebraska Senate Race Takes Center Stage

Dan Osborn (I-NE)

If you look at the Senate polling averages right now, you’ll find that the closest Senate race in the country is not Michigan.  It’s not Nevada or Montana.  It’s not Florida or Texas.  It’s not even Ohio.  No, inexplicably, the closest election on the map right now is in, to quote The Fellowship of the Ring, “the most unlikely place imaginable.”  It’s in Nebraska.  In easily the most unexpected turn-of-events of the 2024 political calendar, the polls are indicating that our closest election is somehow in a state that virtually no one saw as competitive even a few months ago.

 

The reason for that is simple-Nebraska is historically a very red state, and Senator Deb Fischer (R) has been a solid incumbent if you look at her election returns.  Fischer won her initial election in 2012 against former Sen. Bob Kerrey in a landslide.  2012 was an impressive year for Democrats, and Kerrey is no slouch, and yet she crushed him…it’s hard to imagine a situation where she would eventually lose.  She also survived 2018, another really good year for the Democrats, and was headed into 2024 with no opposition.  In a way that is literal-the Democrats did not field a candidate in the Nebraska Senate race, and instead it’s an Independent candidate who is giving her trouble.

 

Dan Osborn is making his first run for political office this year.  He is a Navy veteran and former mechanic, a blue collar job that he’s made a point of highlighting in ads, proclaiming that it’s “time someone in the Senate had a real job.”  Osborn’s politics are definitely more moderate than Fischer’s (he supports abortion rights, a minimum wage increase, & legalizing medical marijuana), but he has made a point on the campaign trail of stating his independence, and that he would want to join an independent caucus.

 

I will be honest-I have been skeptical about his race since it emerged as theoretically competitive this summer, and even now, it does feel like the sort of Charlie Brown & the football scenario that comes up when independent candidates come across as more real than you’d expect.  In 2014, Greg Orman (I) looked like a serious threat to take out Sen. Pat Roberts…he lost.  In 2020, Al Gross, another independent, ran as the de facto Democrat in the Alaska Senate race…he also lost.  And in 2016, Evan McMullin seemed at one point like a real threat to take Utah’s electoral votes, which he made a serious play for; not only did he lose, he came in third behind both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.  I have been burned by independents who basically provide no actual victories, just breathless press.

 

But it’s hard not to see the numbers and say, if Osborn were a Democrat, we’d all be on high alert right now.  Fischer is making miscalculations, which happens when you’re an entrenched longtime politician who is getting an attack you don’t know how to handle.  And Osborn’s running a focused, disciplined campaign.  So for a second, I think it’s worth asking the question-what would happen if he the polls were underestimating him just slightly and he won?

 

The big question comes down to two things.  First-and-foremost, who would have the advantage?  If every single leading candidate in the polls were to win (spoiler alert: they won’t), but Osborn pulled off a slight victory over Fischer (who still leads in the 538 average), this would leave us with 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats (and Angus King/Bernie Sanders, who caucus with the Democrats), and Osborn.  In this situation, Osborn’s stance as an independent would leave Republicans in the majority; the last time one party held a majority but did not have 51% or 50%+VP in their caucus was 1930.  But in that situation, there would be intense pressure on Osborn to caucus with the Democrats, even though he has promised he won’t.  In both 1954 and 2001, an Indpendent ultimately gave the Democrats the majority, which would be what would happen if Osborn were to caucus with the Democrats.  Chuck Schumer would surely afford him a LOT of leeway in that scenario, giving him literally any committee seat he wanted, affording him the ability to stay an independent, and exerting minimal pressure on him to support the Harris agenda (if Osborn wins, I suspect Harris did too).  There would be incentive for Osborn to do this.  Practically speaking, as someone who isn’t in a caucus (even a caucus of one), he wouldn’t get any committee seats, and with Kyrsten Sinema & Joe Manchin leaving the Senate, there’s no real audience for an “Independent Caucus” (don’t say Lisa Murkowski-if she was every going to switch parties she’d have done it already…or she’d just caucus with the Democrats).  Without committee seats, Osborn would have power, but not really…Republicans would likely just clog up most legislation (and all Harris appointees) in committee so that he didn’t get the chance to send ties to VP Walz.  Given that he was largely elected by Democrats & moderates, and that he would have virtually no power if he didn’t caucus with someone, in that scenario, if he’s practical he’d break for the Democrats.  It’s also possible if the Republicans got an outright majority (51 or better) he’d caucus with them too…it would certainly make for a longer career as Nebraska is too red for him to last longer than a term as an independent (honestly, I doubt he can make it longer than a term no matter what he does-this sort of thing is more of a fluke, one-term wonder situation…just ask someone like former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura or former Alaska Gov. Bill Walker, both of whom were only able to secure one-term as independents).

 

This is honestly why people like Osborn don’t usually win-the voters get wise to how impractical this is (and that the independent is really just a moderate Democrat in this case), and revert to partisan form.  That that hasn’t happened in polls yet indicates how poorly Fischer is running her campaign, but I do ultimately think it will happen, even with just four weeks remaining.  Osborn has earned the clicks & headlines at this point-he’s run a race that deserves attention.  But I will not believe he can actually win until he does…and I do not think that he will.