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| Louise Gluck, the most recent American to win the Nobel Prize in Literature |
The heavy money this year is on Can Xue, a Chinese fiction writer. The last three winners have all been from Europe, and no Asian writer since Mo Yan in 2012. The Nobel Committee tends to like to spread-the-wealth with these things (though they do have a European bent), and so Can Xue would be a likely favorite for the prize, and is currently leading in betting markets.
But I will own-I don't know a lot about international authors, and so I am going to write an article today talking about American writers. In the history of the prize, 12 American authors have won the prize. They are Sinclair Lewis (1930), Eugene O'Neill (1936), Pearl S. Buck (1938), William Faulkner (1949), Ernest Hemingway (1954), John Steinbeck (1962), Saul Bellow (1976), Isaac Singer (1978), Joseph Brodsky (1987), Toni Morrison (1993), Bob Dylan (2016), & Louise Gluck (2020); sometimes the stat is cited as being 13 Americans have won it due to TS Eliot, who was born in Missouri but was living in the United Kingdom at the time of the award.
I wanted to write today a list of the people who might be next. Gluck is a relatively recent winner, and Dylan's win courted a lot of controversy, so it's possible we won't have another American writer winning again for 10+ more years, which honestly (given their ages) throws out a chunk of the people I'm about to list as there's no posthumous wins at the Nobels. But let's assume there's going to be one in the next five years-these are the names I would predict. I have listed below what I think could and could not be in these authors favor, but I will say before I start that I tended to favor novelists. While poetry and playwrights are frequently included when it comes to the Nobel, the last two winners were songwriters & a poet...I suspect that the next American to win will probably be a novelist (though I did hedge my bets with mentions of theater & poetry). Here are the American writers that I think are most likely to get the prize next, with #1 being the most likely.
Honorable Mention: A few names that are just out of reach for the list today. First is Don DeLillo, whose body-of-work certainly would warrant consideration, but he's been passed over so many times and most of his best work is decades old now-will they want to pick someone who feels like they're past-their-prime (while there are exceptions like Doris Lessing, most winners are younger than DeLillo is now at 87). Richard Ford & Richard Powers both have won major prizes, and have pockets of support, but might not be big enough names on an international scale. Tony Kushner is quite famous, but after Bob Dylan's win was frowned upon by literary circles (giving it for the first time to a songwriter) his dabbling & success in the movies could be an issue. And George Saunders would be an interesting option, but does he have a long enough bibliography to stand out against some of these other names?
Born: February 9, 1944 in Eatonton, Georgia
Signature Work: The Color Purple
No Stranger to Awards: Walker won the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction & the National Book Award in 1983 for her novel The Color Purple.
Going for Her: Walker is a very well-known author, and her novel The Color Purple is perhaps the most influential (or important) work that has been written by a living novelist (I'm aware those are fighting words, get into it in the comments if you feel the need). Combined with Meridian, she is certainly a very important novelist, and one whose name frequently comes up when discussions of the Nobel Prizes take place.
Going Against Her: With the exception of Pearl S. Buck, you generally don't win this prize based off of one novel, and while Walker has written other works, they have not gotten the kind of praise of The Color Purple, which was written more than 40 years ago. It's hard to see the Nobel Committee going for Walker if they haven't already.
Born: August 28, 1952 in Akron, Ohio
Signature Work: Thomas and Beulah
No Stranger to Awards: Dove has won the Pulitzer Prize, as well as the National Medal of the Arts and was the first African-American to serve as Poet Laureate
For Her: The Nobel Committee isn't shy about giving the award to poets, and Dove is arguably the most well-known living American poet with the death of Maya Angelou. Dove's won almost every accolade you can think of for a poet except the Nobel, and as the first African-American poet to win the Nobel, the diversity that the committee values could help her in this regard (the Nobel Committee for Literature has increasingly focused on diverse perspectives in terms of gender, geography, & race, particularly in the past thirty years).
Against Her: Dove is more nationally famous in literary circles and less internationally recognized, so it would be a bit of a surprise if they went with her. In addition, her most famous work came almost four decades ago and she perhaps peaked a little earlier than she should have (timing is a rough one for the Nobel Committee in this regard).
Signature Work: Thomas and Beulah
No Stranger to Awards: Dove has won the Pulitzer Prize, as well as the National Medal of the Arts and was the first African-American to serve as Poet Laureate
For Her: The Nobel Committee isn't shy about giving the award to poets, and Dove is arguably the most well-known living American poet with the death of Maya Angelou. Dove's won almost every accolade you can think of for a poet except the Nobel, and as the first African-American poet to win the Nobel, the diversity that the committee values could help her in this regard (the Nobel Committee for Literature has increasingly focused on diverse perspectives in terms of gender, geography, & race, particularly in the past thirty years).
Against Her: Dove is more nationally famous in literary circles and less internationally recognized, so it would be a bit of a surprise if they went with her. In addition, her most famous work came almost four decades ago and she perhaps peaked a little earlier than she should have (timing is a rough one for the Nobel Committee in this regard).
Born: January 6, 1956 in Portland, Maine
Signature Work: Olive Kitteridge
No Stranger to Awards: Strout won the Pulitzer Prize for her novel Olive Kitteridge in 2009, and was nominated for the Pen/Faulkner Award for 1998's Amy and Isabelle.
Going for Her: Strout, unlike a lot of these authors, is actually what the committee is usually looking for. She's roughly the right age (nearing her 70's), and has the kind of pedigree that you'd expect for a Nobel Laureate, where she's putting out critically-acclaimed books like Olive, Again and My Name is Lucy Barton in the recent past. I would not be surprised, especially if she can pull off another major award (like, say, the National Book Award or the Booker Prize) to see her name move up these predictions lists in the coming years.
Going Against Her: We'll get into this with another author (specifically #5, but also #2), but there's a certain type of author that generally gets ignored by the committee when it comes to American novelists, and that's female authors who focus on women. A lot of the novelists on this list are, in fact, in that camp, partially because they're living & celebrated, and also because I do think we're due for a winner from this style of fiction. However, if you've heard of Strout, it's likely in connection to women like Frances McDormand, Laura Linney, & Oprah Winfrey...her books toe the line into perhaps being too popular with the masses for snooty Nobel tastes.
Born: November 6, 1969 in New York City, New
Signature Work: The Underground Railroad
No Stranger to Awards: Whitehead has won not one but two Pulitzer Prizes for Drama for his novels The Underground Railroad and The Nickel Boys, making him one of only four authors ever to win that distinction (Booth Tarkington, William Faulkner, & John Updike are the other three, so he's in esteemed company). He has also won the National Humanities Medal, a Guggenheim Fellowship, and the National Book Award.
Going for Him: Whitehead is exactly the type of American novelist that can win an award like this. He is the kind of old-school celebrity novelist where every new book feels like an event, and where he has crossed over into common knowledge even among people who don't read (he's literally been on the cover of Time Magazine, and the adaptation of his book The Nickel Boys into theaters later this year will only enhance that). He's important, critically-acclaimed, and someone everyone would agree would be a good choice.
Going Against Him: I think Whitehead is probably too young for the Nobel right now, which is a problem for him in two ways. First, he's not going to win soon if the Nobels think he needs to, you know, turn 60 before they seriously consider him, and secondly, he risks being someone like Rita Dove-someone whose career peaked too soon, as it's hard to keep up this level of passion as a novelist, especially one who writes as often as Whitehead does.
Born: May 8, 1937 in Glen Cove, New York
Signature Work: Gravity's Rainbow
No Stranger to Awards: He's won the National Book Award, and was due the Pulitzer Prize (he won the jury's vote unanimously for Gravity's Rainbow), but the Pulitzer board dismissed their decision so Pynchon went home empty-handed.
Going for Him: Well, no one's going to argue that Thomas Pynchon doesn't stand-alone in the literary community. Novels like Gravity's Rainbow and The Crying of Lot 49 have entered the lexicon in ways few living authors have been able to do, and Pynchon's is a genius that is quite singular-there's never been anyone quite like him in the literary world (maybe if Salinger had actually decided to publish something at some point during his last forty years he might have come close), and he'll likely show up on lists of missed opportunities for the Nobel Committee if this never happens.
Going Against Him: Honestly, if they could actually get him to show up I think he'd win by unanimous consent. The infamously reclusive author makes Cormac McCarthy look like Kim Kardashian-it's hard to imagine the Nobel Committee giving the award to a man who will never accept, and possibly not even acknowledge the award (or more damning, mock it through a New York Times editorial).
Signature Work: Gravity's Rainbow
No Stranger to Awards: He's won the National Book Award, and was due the Pulitzer Prize (he won the jury's vote unanimously for Gravity's Rainbow), but the Pulitzer board dismissed their decision so Pynchon went home empty-handed.
Going for Him: Well, no one's going to argue that Thomas Pynchon doesn't stand-alone in the literary community. Novels like Gravity's Rainbow and The Crying of Lot 49 have entered the lexicon in ways few living authors have been able to do, and Pynchon's is a genius that is quite singular-there's never been anyone quite like him in the literary world (maybe if Salinger had actually decided to publish something at some point during his last forty years he might have come close), and he'll likely show up on lists of missed opportunities for the Nobel Committee if this never happens.
Going Against Him: Honestly, if they could actually get him to show up I think he'd win by unanimous consent. The infamously reclusive author makes Cormac McCarthy look like Kim Kardashian-it's hard to imagine the Nobel Committee giving the award to a man who will never accept, and possibly not even acknowledge the award (or more damning, mock it through a New York Times editorial).
Born: October 25, 1941 in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Signature Work: Breathing Lessons
No Stranger to Awards: Tyler has won the Pulitzer Prize, the National Book Critics Circle Award, and has been shortlisted for the Booker Prize
Going for Her: Tyler has steadily become one of the most recognized authors in American letters, having won most of the major literary prizes and been recognized in recent years for her contributions to fiction, getting compared to everyone from Eudora Welty to John Updike. She's a well-known figure, with several easily name-checked novels, and she's still making significant contributions to literature, getting her Booker Prize nomination for 2015's A Spool of Blue Thread.
Going Against Her: Tyler's work is not without its critics, and the Nobel Committee might not take kindly to the criticisms of Tyler's work, which is frequently considered too "kind" or "feminine." While the committee made a sport of ignoring the contributions of Philip Roth while he was alive, they aren't exactly clamoring for the softer, warmer prose of someone like Tyler.
Signature Work: Breathing Lessons
No Stranger to Awards: Tyler has won the Pulitzer Prize, the National Book Critics Circle Award, and has been shortlisted for the Booker Prize
Going for Her: Tyler has steadily become one of the most recognized authors in American letters, having won most of the major literary prizes and been recognized in recent years for her contributions to fiction, getting compared to everyone from Eudora Welty to John Updike. She's a well-known figure, with several easily name-checked novels, and she's still making significant contributions to literature, getting her Booker Prize nomination for 2015's A Spool of Blue Thread.
Going Against Her: Tyler's work is not without its critics, and the Nobel Committee might not take kindly to the criticisms of Tyler's work, which is frequently considered too "kind" or "feminine." While the committee made a sport of ignoring the contributions of Philip Roth while he was alive, they aren't exactly clamoring for the softer, warmer prose of someone like Tyler.
Born: June 16, 1938 in Lockport, New York
Signature Work: them
No Stranger to Awards: She's won the National Book Award, as well as the National Humanities Medal, and though she's never won, she's been nominated for the Pulitzer Prize five times.
Going for Her: Oates is the closest thing you get to an author in the vein of Philip Roth, Ernest Hemingway, or Virginia Woolf, where everyone has heard of her, her name is synonymous with quality, and the critics pretty much universally love her work. Ask anyone who loves books (or writes them), and they'll all name-check her as a genius with prose, and she continually challenges herself (one of those Pulitzer Prize nominations is from the last decade.
Signature Work: them
No Stranger to Awards: She's won the National Book Award, as well as the National Humanities Medal, and though she's never won, she's been nominated for the Pulitzer Prize five times.
Going for Her: Oates is the closest thing you get to an author in the vein of Philip Roth, Ernest Hemingway, or Virginia Woolf, where everyone has heard of her, her name is synonymous with quality, and the critics pretty much universally love her work. Ask anyone who loves books (or writes them), and they'll all name-check her as a genius with prose, and she continually challenges herself (one of those Pulitzer Prize nominations is from the last decade.
Going Against Her: Some will point out she's opinionated (and her Twitter is the stuff of PR nightmares), but I doubt the Nobel committee cares about that. Her bigger problem is probably productivity. Honestly that's all I can think of since she's overdue for the Nobel. There's a stigma against writers who produce a gargantuan body of work, and with nearly sixty novels to her name, Oates has nearly surpassed the body of work of almost every other novelist on this list combined. Oates has cleverly made fun of this in the past ("more titles and I might as well give up all hopes of a 'reputation'"), but it could be what's holding her back.
Born: August 17, 1959 in Western Springs, Illinois
Signature Work: The Corrections
No Stranger to Awards: He won the National Book Award for The Corrections, as well as was shortlisted for the Pulitzer Prize. He also appeared on the cover of Time Magazine with the title "Great American Novelist" and was also an Oprah Book Club selection. Perhaps you remember?
Going for Him: Franzen is surely someone that will be on lists like this for decades, provided his health holds. He's the exact sort of author the Nobel Committee clamors for, with a novel roughly twice a decade and every one of his books being hailed as an event. His novels The Corrections and Freedom both were landmarks, and his name attracts attention every time it comes up.
Going Against Him: Franzen's kind of a jackass, which can't help him in this regard though it doesn't preclude him, as jackasses have won this award in the past. He regularly courts controversy, and is disliked by as many novelists as critics who worship him. People rarely say he's untalented, but the age of the angry white man channeling his own male-focused point-of-view through his literature and being called a genius is a bit passé.
Signature Work: The Corrections
No Stranger to Awards: He won the National Book Award for The Corrections, as well as was shortlisted for the Pulitzer Prize. He also appeared on the cover of Time Magazine with the title "Great American Novelist" and was also an Oprah Book Club selection. Perhaps you remember?
Going for Him: Franzen is surely someone that will be on lists like this for decades, provided his health holds. He's the exact sort of author the Nobel Committee clamors for, with a novel roughly twice a decade and every one of his books being hailed as an event. His novels The Corrections and Freedom both were landmarks, and his name attracts attention every time it comes up.
Going Against Him: Franzen's kind of a jackass, which can't help him in this regard though it doesn't preclude him, as jackasses have won this award in the past. He regularly courts controversy, and is disliked by as many novelists as critics who worship him. People rarely say he's untalented, but the age of the angry white man channeling his own male-focused point-of-view through his literature and being called a genius is a bit passé.
Born: November 26, 1943 in Sandpoint, Idaho
Signature Work: Housekeeping
No Stranger to Awards: Robinson has won the Pulitzer Prize, the National Book Critics Circle Award (twice), and was shortlisted for the National Book Award. She also won the National Humanities Medal in 2012.
Going for Her: Robinson is one of those authors who somehow manages to keep pumping out critically-acclaimed and celebrated novels even without the added benefit of movies being made of her films or the celebrity of a Jonathan Franzen. Her work is religiously-inspired, which I think might be something the Nobel Committee thinks stands out (she's by far the most drawn to her faith in her writing of any author on this list), and she's also had a major impact in her 60's and 70's in the literary community with Gilead and Lila. No one can argue that she isn't producing some of the most important work of her career this century.
Going Against Her: While being prolific has its downside (as we just discussed with Joyce Carol Oates), Robinson only has five novels. That's hardly the sort of thing that wins a Nobel, even if one of those novels is as good as Housekeeping. Could someone with such a short bibliography win the Nobel?
Signature Work: Housekeeping
No Stranger to Awards: Robinson has won the Pulitzer Prize, the National Book Critics Circle Award (twice), and was shortlisted for the National Book Award. She also won the National Humanities Medal in 2012.
Going for Her: Robinson is one of those authors who somehow manages to keep pumping out critically-acclaimed and celebrated novels even without the added benefit of movies being made of her films or the celebrity of a Jonathan Franzen. Her work is religiously-inspired, which I think might be something the Nobel Committee thinks stands out (she's by far the most drawn to her faith in her writing of any author on this list), and she's also had a major impact in her 60's and 70's in the literary community with Gilead and Lila. No one can argue that she isn't producing some of the most important work of her career this century.
Going Against Her: While being prolific has its downside (as we just discussed with Joyce Carol Oates), Robinson only has five novels. That's hardly the sort of thing that wins a Nobel, even if one of those novels is as good as Housekeeping. Could someone with such a short bibliography win the Nobel?
Born: June 7, 1954 in Little Falls, Minnesota
Signature Work: Love Medicine
No Stranger to Awards: Erdrich has won the National Book Award & the National Book Critics Circle Award, and just a couple of years ago finally won the Pulitzer.
Going for Her: Erdrich would make history if she were to win (she'd be the first Native-American author to win the award), a huge accomplishment and something the committee might find a compelling narrative for the prize; Erdrich's career has never been hotter, quite frankly (all three of her awards name-checked above came in the past 15 years, despite decades of being a signature figure in the literary world), and a long career with a lot of momentum could be a solid recipe for success with the Nobel Committee. She's been scooping up lifetime achievement awards left-and-right in recent years-this would be quite the capper.
Going Against Her: I do wonder if Erdrich is famous enough to win, though her recent Pulitzer Prize may have put that worry to rest. I think Erdrich's biggest issue is the recent wins by Dylan & Gluck...had one of them not won, we'd be primed for another American win soon, and I think she makes the most sense in terms of career heat, reputation, awards base, & age.
Signature Work: Love Medicine
No Stranger to Awards: Erdrich has won the National Book Award & the National Book Critics Circle Award, and just a couple of years ago finally won the Pulitzer.
Going for Her: Erdrich would make history if she were to win (she'd be the first Native-American author to win the award), a huge accomplishment and something the committee might find a compelling narrative for the prize; Erdrich's career has never been hotter, quite frankly (all three of her awards name-checked above came in the past 15 years, despite decades of being a signature figure in the literary world), and a long career with a lot of momentum could be a solid recipe for success with the Nobel Committee. She's been scooping up lifetime achievement awards left-and-right in recent years-this would be quite the capper.
Going Against Her: I do wonder if Erdrich is famous enough to win, though her recent Pulitzer Prize may have put that worry to rest. I think Erdrich's biggest issue is the recent wins by Dylan & Gluck...had one of them not won, we'd be primed for another American win soon, and I think she makes the most sense in terms of career heat, reputation, awards base, & age.
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