Where the Democratic Trifecta Odds Stand

Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)

One of the questions I'm most asked these days when it comes to politics is "who's going to win?" a question that I've been weirdly absent on on the blog, because, well, no one knows the answer.  There are a few things we do know.  The entry of Vice President Kamala Harris into the presidential election has been remarkably successful.  So far Harris hasn't made any missteps (she will, for the record, and it'll be interesting to see how the media will handle that), in particular her choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has gone better than anyone should've hoped for given the short vetting period she was afforded (comparatively, Donald Trump had months and chose possibly the worst possible VP in the modern age).  And Harris is gaining in polling.  According to 538, Harris now leads by nearly 3-points in the national average, the best the Democrats have done so far this cycle (for Biden or Harris).  And she has gained footing in the seven key swing states, with a clear lead now in Michigan & Wisconsin, along with small leads in Pennsylvania & Arizona (she still is running even or slightly behind Donald Trump in Georgia, Nevada, & North Carolina).  

But ultimately, we're still in the honeymoon phase for Harris-she's acing her rollout, and next week is the DNC.  This is when she should be doing well.  If this type of polling continued, she'd be a safer bet for the White House (if we went exactly by 538 averages, she'd win 297-241 with her current polling).  But it's too soon to tell how much of this is a sugar high, and how much of it is real.  What I can say is that Harris is in a coin toss race, one where she has the momentum, against a guy who has lost the popular vote twice and seems to be struggling to gain any sort of traction in a contest that might be slipping away from him.

And if Harris wins the White House, the US House is not far behind.  While I think the safest of the three bets for the Democrats right now is the presidency, the House probably comes with that.  The House is slightly harder for two reasons.  First, Democrats will have to beat at least some incumbents to win, and while many of those incumbents are first-termers, they still have proven the ability to win before-they shouldn't be discounted.  Secondly, they are in different jurisdictions, places like New York & California, which are not going to get much attention from Harris, and also where the state parties have struggled in the past to show competency (I have more faith in, say, our swing seats in Arizona & Michigan which host much more attuned state parties than the seats in solid blue states).  They're going to having to convince voters who were very comfortable splitting their tickets in 2020/22 to vote straight ticket this time.  It shouldn't be that hard, but it ain't easy.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT)

Which brings us to the Senate, by far the heaviest lift for the Democrats, and one that increasingly looks like they'll need an actual upset (and not just to win a jump ball race) to win.  Weirdly, in a lot of ways the Democratic Senate picture is the best of the three.  I mean, just look at the swing state Democrats-there are five Senate races in the "Big 7" swing states, and most of them are cruising to reelection.  Bob Casey (PA), Jacky Rosen (NV), Tammy Baldwin (WI), and Ruben Gallego (AZ) are all running well-ahead of their competitors, and while Elissa Slotkin (MI) is in a tighter race (against a more qualified opponent), she's also doing very well.  Of the five, only one non-partisan polling outfit has shown a Republican leading in one of their races this year, and that was in January.  I repeat-in five of the most important states in the country, every single non-partisan poll since February has shown the Democrats winning all five of these Senate races, an unbelievable stat, and it's made even crazier when you remember that Gallego & Slotkin are not incumbents.  Even better-Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has led in every single poll in Ohio, a state that Donald Trump is expected to win.  Ohio polling has a history of inflating polls for Democrats, but it's worth noting that Brown is pretty consistently clearing the 50% marker since the primaries were held in March...he's in a very good spot, and if rumors that Kamala Harris is closing the gap in Ohio are to be believed, this will only help Brown (I would assume there's no world where Harris wins the state, but if she can get it to within 5-points, I think Brown should be able to take the ball the rest of the way).

The problem is-the Democrats need one more seat.  Even if they win the White House, and Tim Walz is around to cast the deciding vote, they need one more seat because they couldn't get a victory in Wisconsin in 2022 or in North Carolina in 2020 (which would've been easier than any win they'll pull off this year).  There are three seats that are in the running for that 50th spot: the one currently held by Sen. Jon Tester (MT), who is running for reelection, and the Republican-held seats in Texas & Florida.  Tester has the best shot on-paper, but unlike Brown, he has shown weakness in polling (and been behind in several, albeit partisan, polls in the past few weeks).  These three seats (along with Brown's and to a much lesser degree Slotkin's), are going to decide the majority of the Senate; I was asked recently what seats to donate to if you wanted to help the Democrats win the Senate, and I said Brown, Slotkin, Tester, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL), and Colin Allred (TX) were the majority makers.  Until the Democrats can prove they can clear one of those latter three seats, I can say with confidence the Republicans are going to take the majority...but given this is a one-seat margin of error, the GOP should not go into this race with a particularly large amount of confidence.