Will JD Vance Leave Next?

Sen. JD Vance with former President Donald Trump

I have watched politics for a long time, but I can't recall the last time I've seen something like what has happened to JD Vance this past week.  While Kamala Harris has a sea of male, midwestern governors showing off (for the record, while I don't think that he's going to get it still, no one is acing VP auditions like Tim Walz is this week, and I think he'd be the perfect running-mate for her if she is into him, even if he's not considered by most to be the "top tier"), Donald Trump is stuck with JD Vance, and I mean stuck.  The Ohio senator has done an awful job as his running-mate, and is currently the least popular (at this point in the race) running-mate in modern history.

Vance's troubles are numerous, and it's hard to know where to begin.  For starters, his speech at the RNC was just okay, and it didn't get much of a bounce.  To be fair, vice presidential speeches rarely get much bounce out of a convention-the only two that I can think of that did are Joe Biden's "Osama bin Laden is dead, and General Motors is alive!" moment in 2012 which may well have won Obama Michigan, and Sarah Palin's A+ "you know the difference between a hockey mom and a pitbull...lipstick" line delivery in 2008.  But the vice president generally does no harm, and certainly not this early.  Palin's a good example of this.  By the end of the campaign, Sarah Palin had probably lost John McCain a couple of states (he was going to lose even if he picked the Palin he was hoping for), but in the wake of the RNC, she had delivered him the best polls of his campaign.  Vance, on the other hand, is watching in real-time as Donald Trump slips in the polls.

Most of this is due to Kamala Harris's entry into the race.  Trump was prepared to fight Joe Biden, not Harris, and that's what he focused on during the RNC.  But right now Trump should be riding a major high.  He's in the RNC wake, which is usually your best polling window, should have a post-assassination attempt sympathy bounce, and, yes, should be getting some residual polling bounce from people falling in love with his running-mate.  But that's not happening, and it's clear why: JD Vance is strange, and was not a good choice.

Vance's belief system is unusual, even for a Republican.  We talked about this a little when I did my article about him, but his views on women have come to the forefront.  A well-circulated video of him talking about women staying in marriages for the sake of their children, even when they are the victims of domestic abuse should've been a nonstarter for Vance (Trump was an idiot for overlooking such an obvious hiccup).  But there have been others that he also should've seen coming.  Vance has apparently advocated for giving more votes to parents of young children to increase birth rates and reward straight, marred couples with more power in elections.  Vance also talked about wanting to arrest women who would go from a state with an abortion ban and then going to a state that had no abortion ban, which has been shared in the last 10-12 hours.  Trump, admittedly, had no way of seeing the "JD Vance had carnal relations with a couch" meme that is now going to be a running-joke about the senator for the rest of time was coming (I can't entirely explain the sources of this yet, but know it's the only thing on my social media right now), but most of this he should've seen coming.

It's clear that Trump picked Vance not to help his campaign, but to double-down on it.  Trump was looking at poll numbers, ones that showed he had a shot against Joe Biden in Minnesota, Virginia, Maine, and New Hampshire (and dominating all seven of the swing states), and wanted a sycophant, someone who would devote himself entirely to being his lapdog, and that's what Vance was.  It's going to be something I repeat throughout this cycle, but it's clear that it never occurred to Trump that Joe Biden might put more value into his party winning than into his own power, and that caused him to behave rashly.  Vance is now a burden to the ticket, something that they are going to have to work around rather than use as an asset.  This is in contrast to Kamala Harris, who is currently getting huge plaudits from different corners of the country as people like Gretchen Whitmer, Tim Walz, Mark Kelly, & Josh Shapiro are going around like a game show, proving their mettle and potentially landing the second biggest job in the country.

Because it's on everyone's minds, yes, Donald Trump still has room to dump JD Vance if that's his prerogative, though unlike Biden stepping down for Harris, legal issues are potentially an issue, and will continue to be a bigger issue with every passing day.  Vance, for example, is likely already on the ballot in Michigan by now, and would be on the ballot in Missouri by Monday.  Ohio & South Dakota will come pretty quickly after, and given that voting will start in some states as early as September, replacing Vance at this point is rife with issues.  That September date is going to be mentioned a lot by a media who have found a new toy (pushing for a nominee to exit a race), but I think the bigger issue is going to be some of those early filing deadlines-Trump can't afford for his VP to be off the ballot in Missouri & Ohio (they're both important to his electoral college math), and lawsuits could stretch long enough that they could bleed into early voting in other states.  Essentially, if he doesn't get rid of Vance as soon as possible (which right now doesn't appear to be the case), he's stuck.

And there's no incentive for Vance to get off of this ticket himself.  He's quickly become a national laughingstock.  Sure, Trump could do better (why he didn't pick someone like Marco Rubio or Joni Ernst will forever remain a mystery, and I hope it shows up in one of the memoirs about this race as I'd like it properly spelled out), but JD Vance can't.  He is now the guy who took the term "loveseat" too seriously in the minds of the internet...he'll never have a chance like this again, and it needs to be reiterated-Trump is still leading in polls.  Harris has not yet broken away with this race (even if states like Minnesota, Virginia, Maine, & New Hampshire appear to be a pipe dream that is fading for the GOP).  JD Vance, as the sitting vice president to a term-limited president, would be the frontrunner for the White House in 2028, no matter his personal flaws.  Vance may have shown himself a sycophant, but he'd be an idiot to step away from this opportunity voluntarily given the potential fruits.  The likeliest outcome is that Trump has to wait-and-see...something he doesn't really have the time to do.