The State of the VP Race

Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)

I said earlier this week that I would write a quick article about the Vice Presidential selection for the Democrats that will likely be announced as early as next week.  This is the shortest VP selection process in decades, and Vice President Kamala Harris will have only days to get through a list of qualified candidates and pick the person who might be her closest confidante for the next eight years, and if things go well, an extension of her legacy beyond those eight years.

There are a few things that I think will be true about Harris's nominee.  First, he will hold statewide elected office (as either a governor or senator).  We're already creative enough picking our POTUS nominee in July...we don't need to add additional silliness by, say, going with a general or a celebrity.  Second, he will be somewhat of a moderating force on the ticket.  Harris is perceived by voters as a pretty progressive option (I suspect that she will be our most progressive president, were she elected with a trifecta, since at least Kennedy, maybe FDR), and picking a more moderate running-mate will signal to swing voters that they should consider her even if she's to their left, as she'll be their president too.  And third he will be, well, a he.  The first woman president will inevitably have a male running-mate (that's how the world will work until that glass ceiling breaks, and I would suspect that her ultimate choice will be a straight, white man).  With that said, here's where I think the race stands.

(Note: This is a list of the candidates ranked by the likelihood that they will be chosen...I'll get into my recommendations at the bottom)

Honorable Mention: There are a few names being bandied about that I think should at least be mentioned, and so I'll get to them here.  I do not think that Harris will support an all-female ticket, though I wouldn't be stunned if she at least vetted a woman (in the same sense that Hillary Clinton at least considered Elizabeth Warren) to keep the media on their toes.  Therefore Gretchen Whitmer (or someone like Amy Klobuchar or Gina Raimondo) is out of the running.  I also don't think she'll pick someone with no political experience (like Willam McRaven) or will put a Senate seat at risk in a state with a Republican governor (looking at you, Raphael Warnock & Jon Ossoff).  I also think that JB Pritzker is a bit of wish-casting.  Pritzker makes sense (he's a midwestern governor and a straight, white male), but he's also a billionaire with an extensive list of high-profile family members.  One of the things that is already tough to figure out with such a short turnaround to pick the VP is that we won't have a proper vetting of all of these men...Pritzker reads to me as the candidate most likely to have skeletons in his closet due to his longtime business holdings.  He'd be in sixth on this list (I wanted an even five), so he's not crazy to consider (and I think he could be on the "official" shortlist), but I don't think he ultimately gets picked because he has too many red flags.

The name that is most thrown out that I'm going to pass on putting on this list is Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.  Buttigieg has a couple of things against him.  First, he has a lack of electoral experience (he has never held a major elected office, unlike every man we'll get to on the actual list).  Second, he's had an easy-to-attack tenure as Secretary of Transportation (the airport delays are not his fault...that'll be hard to explain to the American public).  And third, he's gay.  I say this as a gay man-I don't know if America is ready for a gay president, and that's something that would be hard to field-test in a week.  Buttigieg is very young (he's 17 years younger than Harris), and would be a solid asset in a Harris cabinet (perhaps as UN Ambassador, or even a major position like Secretary of State down the road), or he could go to his new state of Michigan and go after a political office there.  But he's not going to be Harris's running-mate.

Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY)

5. Andy Beshear

Beshear is the most obvious choice on this list, and much higher if we were ranking these on who should be the nominee.  People get WAY too excited about the slight bump that a vice presidential nominee gets from being a favorite son, but historically that's not worth a lot (just ask John Kerry or Mitt Romney).  It's possible that some people above Beshear on this list give Harris a slight leg-up, but I think ultimately winning those states will be up to her.  What I think sets Beshear apart is that he represents the future.  He does this through being a candidate with a proven track record winning red votes (he's a left-of-middle two-term governor of Kentucky...that takes skill), and he's young & handsome (don't underestimate having the most attractive presidential ticket of all-time on voters who increasingly look at politics as entertainment).  He also would represent the future of the party.  He'd easily be young enough to run in 2032, and while this shouldn't matter to the Harris campaign, him becoming VP would have no down-ballot impact.  He's not being saved for a Senate race (or causing a Senate opening), and unlike Shapiro, he won't leave the Lieutenant Governor's job in the hands of a Republican.  If anything, his election would allow Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman to be an incumbent, and go into 2027 as the prohibitive favorite.  He's a star without a path forward (and I hate wasting political stars if I can help it).  I also think that Beshear being able to straddle the line between a Southerner and Midwesterner would be a unique asset as we try to hold the Blue Wall while attempting to pick up voters in North Carolina, Georgia, & Florida.

Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA)

4. Josh Shapiro

Shapiro at #4 might surprise people, and it speaks to how little we know right now about the Big 5 names that I could be putting the eventual pick at #4 so close to the announcement (I called JD Vance dead-on, in case I'm super wrong here I will retain some bragging rights).  But Shapiro's appeal is a mile wide but not particularly deep.  The obvious reason to pick Shapiro is to get a leg-up in Pennsylvania.  Shapiro is wildly popular there, won in an avalanche in 2022, and I would assume gets Harris an extra point or two, which is nothing to say no to in the most important state on the map.  But picking him would also show some early concern from Harris that she doesn't think she can win the most important state on the map without help (a sign of weakness that would be picked up by the press, and honestly, by lay voters who will say "she just picked him to win Pennsylvania").  Shapiro is not super-experienced at this level of politics.  He was just elected in 2022 as Governor, and while he has a long history in Pennsylvania politics, I don't think that really counts at this level (only congressional, cabinet, or gubernatorial service counts when you're adding up VP math, which makes him the shortest of the bunch).  Call it a hunch, but I think Harris will make a more confident pick than Shapiro.

Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN)

3. Tim Walz

Walz's stock has risen in the past 24 hours, as I initially had him fifth and shuffled to reflect that.  Let's go through the reasons why Walz makes a lot of sense even if he doesn't appear to be anyone's actual prediction yet.  First, of all of these men, Walz has the most-comprehensive resumé.  He's the only man on this list who has been both a governor and a member of Congress (Walz served for 12 years in the US House before becoming governor), which is an asset in a VP (you want someone who can understand the inner-workings of Congress from day one).  He has military experience (he served for 24 years in the Army National Guard), and as a high school teacher, has a history as a union member.  He's also quintessentially midwestern.  You could easily see him just ping pong-ing between Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, & Michigan for the entire fall, protecting the Blue Wall flank at county fairs and parades, for the rest of the year.  His biggest deficits are his similarities to Tim Kaine (Democrats still think Hillary Clinton should've picked someone better, though if we're being real...our bench wasn't great in 2016, and Clinton maybe should be cut some slack for going with Kaine who might've been the best of a bad situation), and he's too nice.  He's the only guy I could see struggling against going for the jugular with JD Vance of these five...though if there's no debate, having a nice guy as your #2 can be an asset (just look at Joe Biden).  And his initial media appearances show he could remain folksy and go after Vance in a debate...which isn't easy (and is a good look for him...again, just ask Joe Biden).

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ)

2. Mark Kelly

Democrats have not picked a governor as their running-mate since 1924.  Democrats do not like variety in their VP selections: they like senators.  The only time since 1944 that the Democrats have picked a non-senator for their #2 spot was 1984 (and with all due respect to Geraldine Ferraro, no one wants to copy the 1984 election).  As a result, you have to have one senator on this list, and Mark Kelly is the only name being bandied (I do think it's weird that, say, Michael Bennet isn't on this list, or Martin Heinich though he's seeking reelection so that would make it harder).  Kelly is a great option.  He's famous (and has a beloved wife), and is a proven vote-getter in a critical swing state (not just for the White House, but for the Senate & House as well).  Kelly also has military experience (he was a naval captain in the Gulf War), which would negate maybe the best asset that JD Vance brings to the Trump ticket.  All things make sense about Kelly, other than he's relatively new to elected politics (he only just won his first race in 2020), his Senate seat would be up in 2026 (Dems would hold for two years, but I don't think anyone other than Kelly could hold this seat against Doug Ducey in 2026, and he won't be able to run), and it's not clear how much of a relationship he has with Harris (they technically served together in the Senate, but only for two months).  If she's going to pick someone in quick order, will she pick someone she doesn't know as well?

Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC)

1. Roy Cooper

Which is ultimately why I'm picking Roy Cooper as the #1 choice, even though when I started this article I listed Kelly as the top option (and I still think that's very plausible).  Roy Cooper is the only person on this list where he clearly has a close relationship with Kamala Harris already.  While Beshear did briefly serve with Harris as a fellow Attorney General, Cooper and Harris overlapped entirely during her time as Attorney General, and are good friends.  Harris has already done multiple events with Cooper already this season in her capacity as Vice President, and I would imagine will continue to do so as the Democrats have not been shy about wanting to flip the Tarheel State.  Cooper is not the future of the party.  Currently 67, we'd be in another Biden age quandary in 2032 if he decided to run.  But I don't know how much Harris is thinking about her post-presidency legacy right now (she's gotta win first), and a reliable, two-term governor of a swing state who will provide a moderating effect on the ticket (something Harris needs based on the attacks coming from the GOP) who is also a friend?  I feel like Cooper makes the most logical sense of the five.

My Thoughts

The above is my predictions.  If I were to pick who I would recommend Harris to go with, it'd be Walz or Beshear (likely in that order), and then Cooper (I would not recommend Kelly or especially Shapiro).  I don't think the VP has enough of an impact on the ticket to shift a swing state (I think people fall in love with that idea and it never pans out-pick a quality candidate over a favorite son).  With that lens, Shapiro is too green, and would have a down-ballot impact (it'd basically forfeit any chance at the Democrats taking over the Pennsylvania State Senate when Lt. Gov. Austin Davis was unable to break ties as he assumed the governorship).  He also has some key issues that he'd struggle with reconciling with Harris.  VP nominees are not someone you should look for the policy direction of the ticket (a sitting VP never defies an administration publicly on policy, even if they do privately), but Shapiro's support of school vouchers & Israel during the war in Gaza are begging for reasons to disenchant Gen Z (he would not be a "first do no harm" candidate).  Kelly did not back the Pro Act (which, given Harris needs to make up some ground with organized labor, particularly if she has any hope of winning Nevada and Michigan, is a bad look), and would make the Arizona Senate seat he holds very vulnerable in 2026, particularly since I think former Governor Doug Ducey (R) would run and would if he made it through the primary, he'd take it.  And Roy Cooper is older (taking away some of the sheen of youth that Harris is bringing), kind of dull compared to the other options, and him campaigning would mean that extremist Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson would run the state while he's out.  Cooper's a very safe option, though, which is why I wouldn't have as much of a problem with him compared to Kelly & Shapiro.

Of the remaining two, I initially favored Beshear, who is younger and I think brings an energy that would compliment Harris well (also, of these five men, he's the one I think would make the best presidential candidate in 2032, and I'm all about looking to the future).  But Beshear's initial rollout on cable news has been only so-so, which means I'm behind Walz of the five (which is weird, as I was kind of making a point of not favoring my own state because it looks biased).  I love all of the qualifications I listed above for Walz (military background, congressional experience, union member, educator, governor), but he's also killing it on cable news so far.  I think he has a lot of qualities that made Joe Biden such a popular VP-smart, capable, but the kind of guy who instantly connects with everyone.  If I was advising Kamala Harris, I'd tell her to pick Tim Walz.