The Biden Campaign Needs a Reckoning, and Perhaps It's Time for Harris 2024

Joe Biden & Nancy Pelosi in happier times

In the wake of yesterday's immunity hearing, where the Supreme Court basically declared that the presidency is tantamount to being a king, the November election has been framed in such a way that it's now a contest between democracy (Biden) and dictatorship (Trump).  But the focus, therefore, has become even sharper on the presidential nominee for the Democrats.  Joe Biden continues to suffer fallout from his presidential debate, where he instilled enough doubt that Democrats, in this case elected Democrats, have started to very publicly decry him.  

Rep. Lloyd Doggett (TX) became the first incumbent Democrat in Congress to announce that he thinks that President Biden should step down.  Sen. Peter Welch (VT) has called out Biden's campaign for being "dismissive" of criticisms.  Rep. Angie Craig (MN) has stated that she wants to see Biden on the campaign trail, no teleprompter, to prove he can still do this.  Rep. Jared Golden (ME), in perhaps the most ill-guided opinion piece I've read this cycle (and that's saying something) seemed to imply that Biden is sure to lose, but that Trump won't be that bad (I'm not linking it, you can find it...the DCCC would be wise to just abandon him at this point if this is what he's going to do-we can get a majority elsewhere).  But most importantly, Nancy Pelosi, former House Speaker and one of the most important Democrats in the country (one who has known Biden for decades) stated in an MSNBC interview "I think it's a legitimate question to say 'is this an episode or is this a condition?'"

Pelosi was quick to state that she wholeheartedly supported Biden and that she expected to see him inaugurated in 2025, but she knew what she was doing here.  Pelosi has been in politics for decades, is not known for making gaffes in interviews, and said this pretty clearly & deliberately.  From my perspective, Pelosi was trying to do one of two things.  She was either trying to get into the Biden camp, telegraphing her displeasure with what the President's attitude has been since the debate (there have been repeated news items stating that Biden has not been in contact with key House & Senate leaders, which is not necessarily true-Angie Craig, for example, stated that she had spoken to the campaign since Thursday, and there is a conference call today with Democratic governors).  But if this is true, this is a way for Pelosi to get Biden's attention, and it should send out warning signs-if she can't get ahold of him, who can?

Second, Pelosi wants to float the trial balloon of Biden getting replaced.  It's starting to become a vultures circling moment.  Biden is down by 6-points in the latest CNN poll, while Kamala Harris is only down by two-points, and the crosstabs indicate she'd have a lot of upside.  With the exception of his fundraising (breathtaking) and his North Carolina speech, he has handled pretty much everything since the debate horribly (I'm not gonna mince words in this article-I'm pissed).  He has given no other major speeches, and today is only appearing at a Virginia fundraiser.  Initially this was his only scheduled campaign stop, until heavy criticism led to announcements of him running in Wisconsin & Pennsylvania.  It's important not to put the chicken before the egg here (it is possible these were planned but not yet announced), but this should've been something they were on top of.  Biden's first sit-down interview will not be with an impartial journalist, but with George Stephenapolous, a former strategist for Bill Clinton (Biden is hardly playing hardball here) who now works for ABC News.  It is increasingly looking, as Pelosi put it, like a condition.  Biden's stamina, despite a pretty hefty spring (certainly compared to Trump), is slipping at the point where he needs it most.

I continue to waiver between whether or not he should jump or not, but if this is the kind of campaign he intends on running, Biden should not stand for reelection, and I am turning to the mind of "I want him to go."  Trump is going to win if Biden campaigns like this, and with that, Biden will have ended American democracy.  This is starting to feel less like a rallying moment, and more like the entire party starting to visibly beg Biden to get out in the same way it felt like Dianne Feinstein and Ruth Bader Ginsburg could not understand that they were putting their legacies & the American public at risk.  I'll be honest-Harris is a safer bet to me at this point than Biden, and I am hoping that Biden is genuinely realizing that he might join historical figures like Neville Chamberlain if he's not careful.  The only thing anyone will remember about him if he loses in November is that he couldn't defend American democracy.

Gov. Tim Walz with Vice President Kamala Harris

We have not really talked in-depth about a Harris campaign, so let's make a few cursory looks at what Harris would (and wouldn't) bring to this conversation (you'll note I'm not entertaining the prospect of another person being the nominee because that ain't happening).  Harris, for starters, would get to keep all of the money.  The campaign finances, which in Q2 was a quarter-of-a-billion dollars, is pledged to Biden-Harris...anyone else would have to forfeit that money, though one wonders if Biden could transfer pretty much all of it to them, but Harris has access to all of it legally and right away.

Harris was criticized for not being ready-for-primetime in 2020, when she flamed out in a primary some (including me) thought she had the prowess to win at the start.  She's gotten better at that, particularly in retail politicking (she's less stiff than she used to be, though she's nowhere as comfortable with it as Biden or Bill Clinton), and she's getting better in interviews, though she's still somewhat reserved.  Her approval ratings have also shifted from 2020.  That year, Biden was better-liked by Black and Latino voters, but at this point Harris has better numbers with these key constituencies, which Biden has seen rougher numbers with all 2024.  Keep in mind, recovery in Black and Latino voters could make the difference in some polling for Harris compared to Biden in states like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.  There's not a whole lot of evidence suggesting that Harris could suffer with white men, other than Biden was uniquely good (for a Democrat) with this constituency, and the assumption is that she would (presumably) be closer to Hillary Clinton's numbers with this constituency, which specifically in Pennsylvania would require her to find more strength in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh's metro areas because she'll crater more in the middle.  Wisconsin and to a lesser degree Michigan and New Hampshire would also be states to watch if she did indeed suffer with white male voters who went for Biden in 2020 but not Clinton in 2016.

Practically speaking, if Biden can drop out in the next week, I think Harris would be fine (even if there are some state filing deadlines that have passed).  There has been erroneous reporting stating that the DNC wants an early virtual nomination to stop any talk of a switch, when in reality this is to get around a potential issue with Ohio's election laws.  July 16th is the start of that process-exactly two weeks from today.  I am going to be honest-I think that'd be enough time for Harris to be able to engage in an all-hands-on-deck switch.  95% of all Democrats are going to vote for whomever is the Democratic nominee, and 100% of the delegates will get behind Biden's choice.  The VP list would need to be done quickly, but anyone with access to Wikipedia could tell you who Harris would need to interview.  She'll want a straight white man who is 60 or younger, preferably with some connection to either the Midwest or the Southwest, and one who doesn't cost the Democrats a Senate seat.  She'll want someone ready-from-the-start, so it'd have to be a senator or a governor, and there are just four men who fit that bill: Sen. Mark Kelly (AZ) and Govs. JB Pritzker (IL), Tim Walz (MN), & Andy Beshear (KY).  Anyone else would be too risky.  We're already playing with fire by doing this so late, so she won't pick an all-female ticket, she's not going to go with someone like Pete Buttigieg because with so little testing, she's not going to risk nominating a gay man as there won't be enough time to see how voters would react (that's blunt, but real, and I say that as a gay man).  Personally, I think she'd be down to Walz or Beshear.  Pritzker's business connections are too risky to vet this quickly, and Kelly's stances on firearms would be a tougher sell (though his popularity in Arizona might make it worth the risk).  Walz & Beshear are both two-term governors with crossover support.  Walz is older and a bit less-polished, but also has military experience, while Beshear is more telegenic and younger, but comes from a line of politicians (his father was also governor) and unlike Walz, isn't going to shore up a state Biden has struggled with in polls.  Either of them works-I suspect she'd pick one of them.

The biggest upside of Harris, though, is that she's got upside.  Opinions aren't formed of her yet.  She could lose by more than Biden would've, but it's time to admit that, on the current trajectory, Biden is looking at a defeat.  A small defeat, and sometimes telegraphing a small defeat ends with a win (just ask Katie Hobbs).  Harris, though, could win with more confidence-she is smart, she would take age off of the table as an attack against the Democrats but make it very much an issue still for Trump (he is 18 years her senior).  And she'd be able to fully embrace the only mantra that seems to work against the GOP in 2024: that America doesn't like Joe Biden, but they really don't want four more years of Trump.  I think giving them Harris, younger, ready-if-still-not-their-favorite, might be enough of a peace offering to the Biden skeptical for them to get onboard and defeat Trump, by giving them the third option that polls have been begging the major parties for this cycle.  Because, let's face it-if we don't beat Trump in November, the Supreme Court has made sure that we may never get another chance to beat him again.