Biden's Last Stand

President Joe Biden (D-DE)

I apologize for the lack of any other political discussion on here (I promise, once Trump announces his VP, I will be doing an article about that, which, for the record I'm currently predicting to be JD Vance), but we are going to do another article in the Biden "will he or won't he" debate this morning.  President Biden has two high-profile dates with the press in the coming days, and unlike some of the more recent interviews he's done (where questions were shared with the radio interviews he did, and his ABC News interview was with a former Bill Clinton campaign staffer who most definitely wants a Democrat to win in November even if he can't say so out loud), these are higher-stakes and more rife for error.

I say error because, quite frankly, I don't see how Biden's campaign recovers at this point (i.e. there's no good that comes out of these other than the status quo).  This has gone well past the point of "turn the ship around" and we are now at a case where the Titanic's orchestra is playing while Rose is spitting in Cal's face...the damage is done, the iceberg is hit.  Trump's approval ratings are up and Biden's polling position is even worse than before.  Forget focusing on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan...at this rate, it would be a real question whether or not Biden would be able to win Minnesota or Maine (or the popular vote).  Fundraising, after an initial sugar high of support for him, has dried up, and major donors like Abigail Disney and George Clooney have stated their lack-of-support for the president.  And to top it off, high-profile Democratic officeholders like Lloyd Doggett, Peter Welch, and Earl Blumenauer have called for Biden to step aside.

Much of the Biden camp's attacks in the past two weeks have been on the media, not a typical color for the Democrats (this is more something that the Republicans try), and they aren't totally wrong.  The New York Times, which at this point needs to be described as a "conservative-leaning" newspaper under the leadership of AG Sulzberger, has gone off-the-rails in trying to take Biden down in the past year, and that has only been exacerbated by the post-debate conversation.  But figures like Doggett, Welch, and Blumenauer are not anti-Biden figures.  These are all men who have held office as Democrats for over 40 years (in Blumenauer & Doggett's cases, over 50).  These are men who only want success for the party, all of them just a few years younger than Joe Biden, and all of them almost certainly with personal relationships with the President given the decades they've served together in DC.  They are not the types of people, quite frankly, you'd expect to be going against a sitting president...they are the troupers not the antagonists, the ones who show up, do the work, and support the party.  And they're all openly going against the president.

It's worth noting it's not just them.  Nancy Pelosi, the party's most ardent champion in the past 25 years, has openly discussed replacing the president in about as clear of a way as she can publicly (ultimately saying this is "Biden's choice" but given Biden has repeatedly said he wants to stay in the race, her continually saying this can make anyone with two brain cells realize she thinks he needs to change his choice); it's hard not to assume that she's more blunt in her conversations with Biden privately, if she can get through to him.  Reports have come out that Chuck Schumer is open to replacing Biden, and yesterday it appeared that the Congressional Black Caucus (the bedrock of a Biden campaign) has seen fractures (though none from its members publicly) over whether to have Biden step aside in favor of Harris.

Not only are these people who only want the Democrats to win, they're also figures that have seen Biden up close in the past two years.  It has become clear at this point that the administration didn't have him doing press conferences and interviews for a reason-the presidency has aged him, and there is no undoing that-you can't make someone younger, and America has shown that they are uncomfortable electing a man that old, even if Donald Trump is almost certain to suffer from the same issues as president given he's basically the same age as Biden.

Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT)

The two high-profile moments for Biden, quite frankly, should be seen as something else.  Biden has been an exceptional president, in my opinion, particularly in terms of repairing America's global relationship after the Trump years, and his press conference after NATO, if done right, could highlight that.  He could talk about how the relationships the United States has with NATO, with Taiwan and Ukraine and championing democracy around the globe, needs to survive beyond party lines.  He could talk about how Trump is alone in his party, that figures like Nikki Haley & Mitch McConnell are alongside Democrats like Biden and Harris in believing that NATO is the bedrock of western democracy.  It would be a good reminder that in order for America to be the leader of the free world, we need to have consistency in respecting the goals of democracy, and a good capper on why the Biden years (provided Trump loses in November) will be remembered extremely well by historians.

And then, on Monday, on the eve of the RNC, Biden could announce that he will step aside.  Biden will be holding the interview with Lester Holt, and will be doing it at the presidential library of Lyndon B. Johnson, the only president since the 1950's to voluntarily not run for reelection.  LBJ's chosen successor (his vice president) losing that election later isn't a great look for the Democrats, but it would still be a powerful symbolic gesture, with Biden understanding that he cannot win this election.  Miracles happen, but counting on a miracle in politics is a bad look and certainly a bad strategy, and Biden is never going to be the one to rally the party after the past two weeks-the damage is done.

That would be the right strategy.  It is not clear that Biden has the courage or the humility to take it, though.  Biden spent his whole life wanting to be president, and while he achieved that dream, he's forgetting that in legacy-building, he needs to beat the guy who ran against him the last time, and if he can't do that, he needs to remember that history will be very kind to him if Harris does the job for him.  There is some sense that the Biden camp has entered a "bunker" scenario where they aren't listening to reason, with figures like Jill & Hunter Biden and Ron Klain simply refusing to acknowledge the inevitable (that this is over for Biden, but there's still time for the Democrats if the Biden cares enough about success that they can't gain from).  Whether it's out of fear for Harris's abilities (which I think are overblown-in an election where voters' #1 concern was "can I have someone to vote for other than Biden or Trump?" actually giving them what they asked for is going to make the Democratic Party seem more rational) or out of sheer ego (Biden's camp likes to point out he's the only person to beat Donald Trump-having Harris do it will make that claim less special and less part of his legacy), the Biden camp seems determined to cling to the sinking ship long enough that they can go down with it.

I do not know if Biden will get out of the race.  On Twitter, I compared this to the fight between an unstoppable force and an immovable object.  Will Biden's better judgement give in to a party that wants him to leave, or will the ego of an aging, 81-year-old politician who has never lost a general election get in his way?  The only person who can say for certain is preparing for a press conference today.  What I do know is that Joe Biden won't win in November with this kind of a coalition & campaign, and given he has shown no ability to repair either...the only way Democrats can win is without him.