Biden is Costing Democrats a Blue Wave

Democratic Leaders Hakeem Jeffries & Chuck Schmer

We are nearing the end of the "replace Biden" conversation.  As I said this weekend, Democrats are not good at risk, and the Trump assassination attempt appears to have made them incredibly nervous (and if some reports are true, despondent).  When I've seen posters, some of them likely trolls, on social media and news sites discussing replacing Biden, it falls into one of three camps defending him.  The first is that "Biden has been a good president."  You will get no argument from me on this-Biden has been the best president of my lifetime, possibly the best president since Lyndon Johnson, incredibly effective at maneuvering Capitol Hill to get bills like the Inflation Reduction Act onto the Resolute Desk.  The problem is that the American people, by-and-large, disagree, and aren't willing to bend on this; he is undoubtedly (provided a Democrat wins in November) going to be remembered better by historians than he is now by the public.

The second is "it's not fair-Trump is just as bad."  This, again, you'll get no argument from me.  Both Biden and Trump look very, very old, and quite frankly, unwell.  Biden is arguably better in terms of his cognitive abilities.  Though slowed down and clearly looking very old in appearance, he still is aware of what he's talking about even if his stutter and speaking patterns are slower than they used to be.  I do not think he has dementia, though I wouldn't go so far as to say otherwise for Trump.  The former president speaks in insane non-sequiturs, confusing people like Nikki Haley & Nancy Pelosi, and referring to batshit crazy references like "the late, great Hannibal Lecter."  But, again, the American public disagrees.  Biden has had 10+ months of being behind in the polls, and hasn't moved the public an inch on the age issue...it's clear he's not capable of doing so.

The third comment is "there's no proof another Democrat would do as well" and here...I disagree.  And there's a reason why, which is the point of today's article: Biden is clearly preventing what would otherwise be a blue wave.  I've been reluctant to say this on record because, quite frankly, it feels silly to talk about blue waves in a world where the Republican nominee for president is the heavy favorite to win election in November, but it's time to admit it.  A recent series of polls from YouGov across a number of swing states showed something we have been seeing for almost a year now: a strong divergence between the Democratic candidates for the Senate and Joe Biden.

The polls were conducted in Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.  In all five, Trump led, in this case by 5, 4, 7, 3, and 2-points, respectively.  But the Democratic Senate candidates led in these states (respectively) by 7, 7, 7, 12, and 9-points.  This isn't an isolated poll.  Trump was up by 3-points in Pennsylvania in the latest New York Times polls and down by three in Virginia (a state that Biden won by 10 in 2020), but the NYT had Tim Kaine up 17-points in his Senate election in the same poll and Bob Casey up by 8-points in Pennsylvania (both these men are Democrats).

These have been incredibly consistent for months, and matches up with special elections and the 2022 midterms.  People like Democratic candidates, and are willing to back them...they just hate Joe Biden.  This has led to confusion, some of it understandable.  Put Joe Biden's views on every major issue next to Jacky Rosen's or Elissa Slotkin's, and I dare you to be able to tell the difference.  But voters are not always rational, and they've made it very clear for years now that the #1 issue they have is not the economy or Ukraine or immigration...it's that they want someone other than Donald Trump or Joe Biden in 2024.  The Senate polls (and to a lesser degree House polling, which is less reliable and also we just have less of them) show that if you put a Democrat who wasn't Joe Biden on the ballot...she'd probably win.  Even if she under-performed the current Senate candidates by 4-5 points...she'd still sweep based on current polling.  The problem for Democrats is that Biden is under-performing these Democrats by 10-15 points, and the longer that happens, the more the gap will close, and I'll be real-it won't favor the Democrats, costing them Senate & House races with talented candidates capable of winning with less top-of-ticket drag.  This, for the record, is my #1 reason that I want Biden out.  It's not his age, it's not his ability...it's that he is not capable of winning, and more to the point, he's about to cost the Democrats what should be basically impossible in the current environment: their third trifecta of the 21st Century.  No amount of love or respect for Joe Biden is worth giving up two years of a Democratic trifecta.