Chaos Reigns in Indiana Governor's Race

Pastor Micah Beckwith (left) with Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN)

As you might imagine, as a partisan Democrat, I always want more Democrats elected.  I think it's good for the country, and generally the more Democrats elected, the more that gets done that I like.  This is how politics works.  But, there is one area that I truly think Democrats need to win to keep things operating, and that is when it comes to the governorships of red states.  Oftentimes, politicians who run for governors of red states, because the most important thing to getting elected is winning a primary, are to the right of the actual electorate, and so unpopular gutting of healthcare, education, & transportation bills end up getting enacted, even if the state doesn't want it.  We've seen this in states like Florida, Oklahoma, & Texas, which have gone 15+ years without a Democratic governor (even a moderate one) and their government infrastructure (and I'll say it, government competence) has gotten destroyed and extremely lazy, and it gets dangerous for the poorest communities in the state.

This is why I get really excited when people like Laura Kelly and Andy Beshear win in red states, and why it hurts a lot when someone like Brandon Presley gets extremely close in Mississippi but can't quite get the victory.  It's worth noting that these wins rarely actually look like wins at the outset.  Kelly won because the Republicans nominated Kris Kobach, an extremely conservative former Secretary of State, who was immensely unpopular and turned off moderate Republicans (Kansas has a lot of them) who went for either Kelly or Independent Greg Orman (no one got to 50% of the vote in 2018).  Andy Beshear did the same thing, boosted by his father's famous name and the incredible lack of popularity of incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin, who only won his primary against a nobody by 13-points.  In both cases, you wouldn't have said the Democrats were favored two years out from the November election.

This love of getting red-state Democratic governors had my ears perking this past week in Indiana.  Indiana has not had a Democratic governor since Joe Kernan lost in 2004, so almost twenty years, and has in recent years seen cuts to its education and healthcare spending under the leadership of people like Mike Pence & Eric Holcomb.  The Republicans were/are heavily favored, though, even with Gov. Holcomb retiring, as incumbent-Sen. Mike Braun won the nomination for the Republicans, and has proven he can win here (he did just that in 2018).  But Indiana has a weird loophole in its law that doesn't allow a governor to unilaterally pick their running-mate, and this caused a major issue for Braun this week.  Braun had endorsed State Rep. Julie McGuire as his running-mate; McGuire is a conservative Republican, but one who has experience in the state legislature and is scandal-free.  McGuire was endorsed not just by Braun, but by Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

However, McGuire lost the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor to Micah Beckwith, a huge upset, and not just because of the endorsements.  Beckwith is a conservative Christian pastor who has a history of insane political statements that would make Donald Trump say "calm down dude."  Beckwith said that the January 6th terrorist attacks were "divinely inspired" by God, and has videos where he said that he has talked to God directly.  He is most famous for leading numerous book bans in the state, including those specifically targeting bestselling Hoosier native John Green, author of the beloved The Fault in Our Stars and who has been very public about his disgust with Beckwith.  Beckwith has also publicly stated he'd be a "thorn" in the side of Braun, making a unity ticket in anything other than name only unlikely.

State Rep. Terry Goodin with Superintendent
Jennifer McCormick (D-IN)

While this made this race by no means a tossup, it did something for the Democrats-it created an opening.  Openings are where upsets begin.  And the Democrats do have a decent candidate as their nominee in Indiana.  Jennifer McCormick, a former Republican who recently switched parties, has a moderate profile and was State Superintendent from 2017-21.  She's pro-choice, but also relatively moderate on the economy, and would be a good option for the Democrats in a situation where they are presented with an opportunity race.  But McCormick quickly followed up the opportunity of Beckwith with a badly self-inflicted wound in picking her own lieutenant governor, making me question if the Democrats' have the kind of savvy to capitalize on the Republicans' mistake.

McCormick picked former House Minority Leader Terry Goodin, a longtime Democrat who has worked in the Biden administration.  On the surface, a fine choice.  But Goodin's politics are rough for a Democrat.  During his tenure in the Indiana state legislature, he opposed abortion rights and gay marriage, and until this week, had never issued a rebuttal to that.  There are a lot of Democrats at the time who didn't support gay marriage (hell, in 2011, when he last voted on it, even President Obama didn't support it yet), but Goodin's lack of reappraisal of these beliefs feels dubious at this juncture (and opportunistic).  McCormick is pro-choice and pro-gay marriage (and has made both issues central to her campaign), but she has now cast doubt amongst supporters to her campaign at the moment she needs it most over how serious she is about protecting those rights, and that puts a big hurdle in front of McCormick on her toughest campaign issue: money.

McCormick is getting badly-outspent by Braun, and needs donations & PAC support to help make up that gap.  Had she picked, say, a generic former party chair or a state legislator who has a history of supporting abortion rights & gay marriage (even if they are, like her, moderate), it would've been an easy base-builder as she uses fundraising calls to donors terrified of Beckwith to grow her coffers.  McCormick is not going to win this race on her own campaigning.  The way a Democrat wins in red territory is by running a perfect campaign and the Republicans making big mistakes...and by getting a lot of money positioned in her race.  Groups like Emily's List or NARAL, for example, would jump at the opportunity to support a pro-choice ticket in Indiana.  McCormick is one of the few women running for governor as a Democrat this cycle...if the race was competitive, you can bet that Emily's List and the DNC would be cutting checks to have a successful woman on their rosters.  But picking Goodin is just a yawn.  It gains you no votes, but it makes your base feel like voting for you is a chore when it should feel really exciting to potentially beat someone like Beckwith.  I honestly can't believe McCormick screwed up what should've been a layup choice so badly, and it looks like other Democrats can't either.  Indiana State Sen. JD Ford, a pro-choice, openly gay state legislator, is considering pulling a Beckwith from the left and running against Goodin in the state convention.  We'll see where that takes us, but it's possible McCormick will have given up the one chance she had to make this race competitive before that chance had even left the front pages.