Bowman Loses Big in New York

Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY)

Normally, the day after an election we do an article about my five thoughts about the previous night, and that is my intention tomorrow when we know a bit more coming out of Utah (and some final margins in Colorado).  But today you're going to get something I don't know I've ever done before (or if I have, it's super rare): an election night article.  That's because a huge race was finally decided in New York's 16th congressional district, and I want to get my immediate thoughts out into the universe while it's still fresh.

If you haven't heard, first-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) has lost the nomination for the 16th district to George Latimer, a longtime local Democrat who is currently a County Executive in Westchester County.  This is a big change for a variety of reasons.  First, Bowman is the incumbent Democrat, and beating incumbents in the House so far this year has been next-to-impossible.  As of this writing (still waiting on the results in Utah), Rep. Bowman is only the third incumbent House member (after Reps. Jerry Carl and Bob Good) to lose reelection this year, and the first Democrat in 2024 to lose.  Bowman's loss is also notable because of his high-profile as a member of "the Squad" a group of liberal House incumbents, several of whom won their seats by unseating establishment Democratic incumbents (with similar profiles to Latimer) to get their seats, Bowman included.  Bowman is the first member of the "Squad" to lose reelection.

Bowman's loss is hardly unexpected, and indeed, this race (the most expensive House primary in American history) had gained a lot of attention in the past few months in part due to Bowman's gaffes on the campaign trail.  He was censured by the US House in December after he pulled a fire alarm in the US Capitol building, and was accused by some (including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy) of doing so to delay a vote (which is against the law).  Bowman denied this, but was fined by the Capitol Police and had to issue a letter of apology to the department.  Bowman was also heavily criticized for voting against the House infrastructure bill (one of President Biden's signature achievements), which was regularly used against him in political ads from Latimer.  His campaign regularly made mistakes, and some accused him of not paying attention to his district, campaigning in the South Bronx (which is not part of the district) and getting into fights with Rep. Mondaire Jones, a former House member who is running in the 17th district.  Indeed, while Bowman had cursory support from House leadership (though none of them actively campaigned for him in the district), Latimer's campaign was endorsed by not just Jones, but also former US Senator from New York Hillary Clinton and former Governor David Paterson.

Latimer's campaign was also backed by AIPAC, which is a pro-Israel lobbying group that is officially bipartisan, but has been accused by some of supporting a more right-wing policy in regard to Israel.  AIPAC has gotten involved in a number of Democratic primaries in the past, helping Democrats like Haley Stevens & Glenn Ivey in 2022 to win competitive primaries against candidates who were more critical of US-Israeli policy.  Latimer is generally a run-of-the-mill Democrat.  While he is more supportive of pro-Israel policy, he is not a Republican by any stretch-of-the-imagination (no matter hat you might read on Twitter).  This is a safely blue seat and he has been a consistent Democrat for decades.  His voting record in Congress will likely be indistinguishable from someone like Kirsten Gillibrand or Steny Hoyer.

County Executive George Latimer (D-NY)

But the AIPAC involvement became a cause célèbre for the Pro-Palestine wing of the Democratic Party, the most liberal aspects of which have become deeply critical online of President Biden's strategy in Israel (in some cases, including Rep. Rashida Tlaib, threatening to withhold support in November).  Bowman-Latimer became a proxy power battle between the two wings, which was always extremely risky for the Pro-Palestine aspects of the party.  Bowman is a lousy candidate, one who probably would've lost regardless given how exposed he was from his missteps in office (particularly the House censure)...betting on him came with serious risk.  But they can't back away from it now-Bowman was the Pro-Palestine candidate here, and they went all-in for him...and he lost.

Here's the thing-when you flex your political muscle, you have to be able to prove that you can win to show your muscle is worth fearing.  That didn't happen tonight.  Latimer beat Bowman, the most high-profile candidate for the Pro-Palestine movement this calendar year.  I've seen this dance enough to know that the far left of the party will Monday-morning-quarterback a bit here to get past Bowman (which, to be fair, is real-Bowman, as I said above, is a terrible candidate).  But that doesn't mean they didn't show the weakness in their hand.  It's hard to imagine that a lot more Democrats, particularly ones who are facing primary challenges, are going to choose to back a more Pro-Palestine position out of political expediency now.  They might do it because it's what they believe (particularly given the atrocities happening in Rafah), but they won't do it because of fears of a movement that couldn't get a win in the highest-profile primary of the year.  Pro-Palestine groups needed a win tonight, and they didn't get it.

As for AIPAC, I doubt that it stops being a lightning rod for Democrats' online (it has attracted high-profile criticism from sitting Democratic members of Congress like Bernie Sanders, Betty McCollum, & Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez), but I also doubt it stops looking at Democratic primaries as a way to exert its influence.  Missouri's 1st congressional district, specifically, looks like a place where the next battle will be waged.  The primaries in the Show-Me State will be held on August 6th, but it features something very similar to what we saw tonight in New York: a scandal-plagued incumbent member of the Squad (Cori Bush) who has been deeply critical of US policy in Israel (and also voted against the House infrastructure bill) facing off against a local office-holder (Wesley Ball) who has already gotten an endorsement from AIPAC.  We'll surely talk about this more as we get closer, but for both sides of this debate, this will be the next chapter of this face-off.