Last night we saw primaries in West Virginia, Nebraska, & Maryland, and as is our tradition on this blog, we will spend today's article looking through the five thoughts that first came to mind with last night's contests. I'm trying to get this written during my lunch break, so I've got a ticking clock-you know how a list works, let's dive in.
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| County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) |
The biggest story last night was the victory by Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in the state of Maryland. Alsobrooks, despite being down in polls almost the entire race (more on that in a second) pulled off an impressive victory in the Democratic Senate primary, likely exceeding the initially suspected single digit win that some (including me) thought we'd be in for. Alsobrooks, should she win in November, will be the first Black senator from the state of Maryland and only the fourth Black woman to serve in the US Senate. She was badly outspent (again, more on that in a second) by Rep. David Trone, the multi-millionaire congressman who spent in excess of $60 million to win this race, but Trone badly fumbled in the close of the race, including making dog whistle attacks against Alsobrooks. It also helped that Alsobrooks had a cavalcade of endorsements, ranging from leaders in Maryland (Gov. Wes Moore, Rep. Jamie Raskin) to her future colleagues (Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Patty Murray) to the Washington Post. In the end, that sort of old-school institutional support mattered more than Trone's money.
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| Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) |
Republicans nominated Gov. Larry Hogan to run against Alsobrooks (though, it has to be said, Hogan's underwhelming victory over two no-name conservatives indicates how little appetite he has from the MAGA wing of his party, which he will need to universally win to have a shot at an upset this fall). There were people who claimed that nominating Alsobrooks would help Republicans' Senate chances, but those people are idiots. Alsobrooks was the better campaigner, and honestly I wish she was running in one of our swing elections given how well she did here. Maryland is sapphire blue, and while Hogan will do considerably better than Trump, Alsobrooks is an overwhelming favorite to win in November and become a US Senator in 2025. If she's not leading in polls in May, she will be when it counts. She will be joined by West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, a former Democrat who ran as a Trump loyalist in the state's GOP primary, and beat sitting Rep. Alex Mooney. Justice is the only guaranteed flip on the Senate map right now and will succeed a man he has a fraught relationship with, Sen. Joe Manchin (D).
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| State Sen. Sarah Elfreth (D-MD) |
There is a tendency to look at the Senate contest in Maryland and think: "is polling wrong?" and "does money matter?" On the latter point, it wasn't just the Senate race. Harry Dunn, a former US Capitol police officer who had raised millions more than his opponent State Sen. Sarah Elfreth in the primary for Maryland's 3rd congressional district (and had the endorsement of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi) still lost. But money only matters if you use it right. Alsobrooks & Elfreth were smart with their money, running hyper-local campaigns and using local endorsements (Elfreth was endorsed by Ben Cardin & Barbara Mikulski, and, you know, actually lived in the district). Trone & Dunn simply ran chaotic campaigns, and didn't use their money to focus. Conversely, Alsobrooks closed well-if you were looking at the campaign, it was obvious that Trone had lost the momentum, and if he was going to win it's because he was always going to win, but Alsobrooks had timed her race well. For Trump supporters who are looking at this and thinking "Biden having more money doesn't matter"...it does-Biden is using this money intelligently with field offices and strategic GOTV-having more will mean he gets more votes. For Biden supporters who are looking at this and thinking "Trump's polling lead doesn't matter"...it does-Trump's lead has been remarkably consistent, and general election polling is more accurate than primary polls, where there are more persuadable voters than a partisan general election. Don't dismiss either...but it's worth noting that Elfreth & Alsobrooks prove neither is infallible.
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| Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) |
To date, the only incumbent to lose reelection so far this year is Rep. Jerry Carl, who lost in a member-vs-member race to Barry Moore. Last night saw two additional incumbents, though (Don Bacon & Carol Miller) win primaries with less than 70% of the vote, which is generally a flashing warning sign showing that the incumbent under-performed. This has been a recurring refrain this year, especially amongst Republicans, where incumbents win closer-than-expected victories against gadfly challengers. None of them have lost, and no incumbent Democrat has lost this year, period, but that will certainly change. Democrats haven't had a cycle without an incumbent House member defeated since 1998 and Republicans haven't since 2004. We should expect at least a few names to emerge in the coming weeks, as incumbents on both sides like Lauren Boebert, Bob Good, Jamaal Bowman, Cori Bush, & Shri Thanedar will face much tougher reelections than those Miller & Bacon endured last night.
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| Mayor-Elect Suzanne LaFrance (I-AK) |
It wasn't just primaries last night-Democrats scored a big city mayor office in Anchorage. Mayor Dave Brunson (R) was running for reelection in Alaska's largest city, and has been a polarizing figure in the state, legislating from the far-right in a state that doesn't really do that (Alaska is red, but it tends to produce relatively pragmatic Republicans like Lisa Murkowski and Don Young more than the Sarah Palin's). Bronson lost in a landslide to Suzanne LaFrance, a former chair of the Anchorage Assembly (equivalent to their City Council), an independent who had been endorsed by the Alaska Democratic Party and Emily's List, a progressive organization focused on electing pro-choice women. LaFrance will now become one of the more important figures in the state in an office that was a launchpad for Alaska's most recent Democratic Governor (Tony Knowles) and Senator (Mark Begich). One to keep an eye out, particularly by me since I will be going to the city for the first time (completing my 50-state project) on Monday!
4 comments:
Go Angela! And I hope you have a wonderful time in Alaska, John!
Nicely written, John. Curious - what's complicating Shri Thanedar's re-election bid? Regardless, have a safe journey to and from Alaska, and enjoy yourself!
Good as always, John. Personally, I think LaFrance can replace Peltola if/when Peltola runs for Senate. I think Peltola should run when Murkowski retires. I wouldn't be surprised if, following Manchin, Collins and Murkowski retire in '26 and '28, respectively.
Enjoy the final frontier, and congratulations on hitting all 50.
Patrick-thanks so much! I haven't decided if I'm mentally going to invest in one of the House primaries this much (the Senate ones are set for now), but Angela winning is up there with beating Dan Lipinski in terms of recent primary victories.
AVH-Thanedar was expected to face a primary against Adam Hollier, whom he only beat in 2022 with a plurality of votes and was likely to face a tough primary due to some of his foreign policy stances, some of his behavior in office (he's been accused of inappropriately spending taxpayer money), & was losing institutional support (former Rep. Brenda Lawrence, the most recent African-American to represent Detroit in Congress & Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson had both declined to endorse him in the primary). But Hollier appears to have not turned in enough signatures to get on the ballot as of yesterday (this was announced after I published), which makes Thanedar's primary much less volatile for the incumbent.
AV-I think that's also a good route. Obviously Peltola is the superstar in Alaska politics and will get of first refusal if/when she goes for a promotion. While from a national politics perspective I want them both to hold federal office (because that impacts us all), I think for the long-term health of the Alaska Democratic Party, we're going to need some local figure to take the governor's mansion to start being an in-the-state ambassador to the party all the time. I also agree-I think Collins and especially Murkowski are more likely to retire than run for another term at this point. Which with both of them gone and Mitt Romney as well, it begs the genuine question-who will be the most moderate Republican in the Senate?
All-Thanks for the encouragement. This is an adventure I've been working on for decades, so very excited to get to cross it off the list. Am hoping I see at least one Peltola sign while I'm in Alaska! :)
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