I'm skeptical about the box office being cause for celebration for a variety of reasons, and the biggest being-it should have been bigger. Franchises like Guardians of the Galaxy, Ant-Man, Fast and the Furious, Captain Marvel, Aquaman, Mission Impossible, Indiana Jones, Transformers, Hunger Games, Trolls, Shazam, & Hercule Poirot ALL failed to make as much as their immediate predecessor, and huge launches like The Flash, Wish, Blue Beetle, Haunted Mansion, Dungeons & Dragons, and Elemental either barely broke even or outright bombed. This year audiences decided they were tired of comic books, and even scarier for the industry, tired of Disney, as the Mouse House's only undisputed hit (Guardians of the Galaxy 3) couldn't even match its predecessor. This year would've looked like an $11 billion year pre-pandemic, and it has to be chilling for studios that it couldn't get there.
One of my favorite recurring articles in the past few years we've done is me predicting at the top of the year which films have the best shot of passing the $1 billion mark. Last year, we had two movies that got there-Barbie and The Super Mario Brothers Movie. It is possible we'll get a third (Oppenheimer is sitting just past $950 million) with Oscar-related re-releases for the Christopher Nolan epic, but I doubt we'll get more. Even if some of this year's holiday-related releases (specifically Wonka) will crack the eventual Top 10 for the 2023 releases once they're done in theaters, none of them will hit $1 billion.
I will confess-when I did my article last year, I didn't predict any of these correctly. Barbie, Mario, and Oppenheimer were not on my list, and while I kind of kick myself over Mario in retrospect, I don't think anyone saw the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon coming six months out. I had predicted Indiana Jones 5, Mission Impossible 7, Guardians of the Galaxy 3, The Little Mermaid, and Aquaman 2...and only Guardians got above $800 million. We're in a weird area where a lot of the types of films that have hit $1 billion traditionally (to date 52, not adjusting for inflation) like comic book films, animated features, Disney live-action remakes, and high-profile legacy sequels all failed to resonate in a big way in 2023...
...and even if these film tropes were still on top, that's still not necessarily a good thing for 2024. Analysts are already saying that 2024, in part due to delays caused by the studios prolonging the writer's & actor's strikes unnecessarily, will come up at least $1 billion short of 2023. Movies like Captain America: Brave New World, Avatar 3, Thunderbolts, and Elio were all originally 2024 releases, but they have moved out. As a result, we have what might be the first non-pandemic year since 2007 that won't have a billion-dollar release.
But I'm still up for the challenge of guessing, and am not going to break tradition just because the studios wouldn't pay the artists who make them rich. So below, we are going to have the five films I think are the most likely to get to $1 billion in 2024, listed in their (current) chronological order, along with some notes. If you think I've missed any (or think I'm right!), sound off in the comments.
Honorable Mention: I would have considered Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse even though its recent box office probably means it'd struggle to get past $1 billion (it did phenomenally, but didn't even hit $700 million), but it's unlikely to be released in 2024 and is probably looking at a 2025 release date. I don't think I would've put it on this Top 5, but on the off-chance it hits a Christmas release date, I think it at least warrants being mentioned in this article as a billion-dollar contender.
Release Date: 6/14/24
Reasons It Will Hit $1 billion: Disney/Pixar has had a lot of major releases flop or underwhelm in the last three years, particularly their animated films, but it's worth noting that not a single one of those flops was a direct sequel to a major success (Lightyear doesn't count-it's a prequel at best), which was a really popular way to make $1 billion prior to the pandemic. Frozen II, Incredibles II, and Toy Story 3 & 4 all pulled off $1 billion paydays, and the nostalgia factor for Inside Out 2 will be huge. The original film made $850 million in 2015, which would normally be a fabulous springboard into a billion dollar sequel, and it's clear Disney is betting hard on this-it's not out for six months, and you can't go to a movie without seeing a trailer for it already.
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 billion: Prior to the pandemic, this would've been a slam-dunk, and the easiest call for $1 billion on this list. But since the pandemic, it's hard to grasp just how badly Disney+ and the "I'll wait until it's on streaming" mentality has hurt the studio. Films like The Little Mermaid and Guardians of the Galaxy 3 also would've been slam-dunk $1 billion hits in the before times...will Inside Out 2 prove that it's simply not possible for Disney to hit $1 billion with people just counting on its streamer?
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: For Disney, it could be bad. Disney has an untitled animated feature coming out in November, and has the animated sequel to 2019's The Lion King, entitled Mufasa that would have also been a threat for $1 billion pre-pandemic. If Disney can't hit with this...I'm out of ideas for how they solve their problem short of canning Disney+.
Release Date: 7/3/24
Reasons It Will Hit $1 billion: One of the reasons that I know that Disney is the cause of its miseries is because while no Disney animated film since 2019's Frozen II & The Lion King has crossed $500 million, three animated features from other studios have. One of those was Minions: The Rise of Gru (the others being Mario and Across the Spider-Verse), which nearly hit $1 billion in 2022 with $940 million. In fact, four films in the Despicable Me franchise (the second & third of the original series, and both Minions movies) have made north of $950 million, which puts the series in Harry Potter/Star Wars territory. The fourth film from the original franchise, which hasn't started advertising yet, will be a big deal, and goes into the summer as the surest studio bet.
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 billion: It's probably the safest bet of this crew. The only thing that it might have going against it as the sixth film from in this series is franchise fatigue, which we saw a lot of in 2023 with Indiana Jones, Fast and the Furious, and Mission Impossible all failing to launch as expected. But if I had to pick only one single film to hit $1 billion, this would be the one I'd select.
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: There are a lot of non-Disney animated films out this year, and many of them are high-profile (not counting the possibility of Spider-Verse 3). Transformers One, The Garfield Movie, The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, and (especially) Kung Fu Panda 4 would be films I'd be looking out for if I knew Despicable Me 4 was going to hit $1 billion, particularly the latter as nostalgia for that could also be high. I don't think any are a threat for a billion dollars even if Despicable Me 4 does well, but it'd be a good sign for their fortunes if the Minions blew up the box office again.
Release Date: 7/26/24
Reasons It Will Hit $1 billion: The first two Deadpool films both did shockingly well and shockingly similar at the box office (both made within $3 million of each other, right past the $780 million mark). This film has a lot of reasons to rejoice coming into 2024. For starters, it's the only MCU film all year, and with the DCEU dead, it's one of only five major comic book pictures coming out next year. Due to this, Deadpool 3 will benefit from something no recent MCU film has been able to claim-a shortage of comic books at your local theater. It's also, similar to Guardians of the Galaxy 3, a franchise that people genuinely seem to like, and by adding Hugh Jackman (and the X-Men) to the mix, it could get new looks from people who aren't as familiar with the R-Rated franchise. Joker proved R-rated films can get to $1 billion...
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 billion: ...but it's still rare. The biggest issue for this is that it will be R-rated, which is a first for the MCU, and means that it will rely less upon family crowds and more upon adults & date nights, which is a new strategy for the MCU. This hasn't hurt the past Deadpool films (which have made remarkable numbers given their production costs & Ryan Reynolds' leading man track record), but they didn't get to $1 billion. Could the MCU's return to the club really come from something so against-the-grain to their formula?
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: As I said, this is the only MCU film in 2024, and while there is a DC film (we'll talk about it in a second), it's not DCEU and is more in the Deadpool format, so I don't know how much this will portend for guessing the success of other movies. Sony is releasing three comic books movies to take advantage of the oxygen that Disney & Warner Brothers are giving them, with Madame Web, Kraven the Hunter, and Venom 3 all coming out later this year. The original Venom had the kind of gross that might hint at a sequel getting to $1 billion, but the second one was hurt by the pandemic so I can't get a read on where it stands with audiences. It's possible that some of these might gain from not having so much competition...but I think mostly they're just trying not to be the next Morbius.
Release Date: 10/4/24
Reasons It Will Hit $1 billion: Well, the first one did. In one of the biggest surprises of the gargantuan 2019 box office, Joker became the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time and the only R-rated film to date to cross the $1 billion line. Its sequel is genuinely unexpected, and the kind of follow-up that only comes when your film makes $1 billion (Joaquin Phoenix is reportedly getting $20 million to do a sequel to the film that won him an Oscar). The movie has added Lady Gaga to the collection as Harley Quinn, so the celebrity will be at peak, and between Phoenix & Gaga, whether or not it makes $1 billion, I am confident that it will have the most insane press tour of the year.
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 billion: The first film was a perfect storm of good reviews, strong movie theater attendance, comic book love peaking, & solid word-of-mouth. This will now have to find a way to top that, which will not be easy. It's also an unplanned sequel, which used to be the norm...but that also used to be why sequels were shorthand for "not as good." If audiences don't respond to another go of a film they didn't expect to get a second helping of, it'll probably make tons of money, but not $1 billion.
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: We have a number of high-profile sequels/installments in beloved franchises. That was not a recipe for success in 2023, but if people are more intrigued by going into the past (it is an election year, after all) next year, they've got Godzilla x Kong, Furiosa, Alien Romulus, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Twisters, Gladiator II, Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, and Dune Part Two all as options if they're so inclined to give us another Top Gun: Maverick.
Release Date: 11/27/24
Reasons It Will Hit $1 billion: Last year I didn't bet on originals that were recognizable global brands, missing both Barbie and Mario as the actual $1 billion winners. I'm not making that same mistake again, and the closest you have to a brand literally everyone knows is Wicked. Assuming that it hits its release date (and does well with critics), I think this will be a gargantuan hit. It has recognizable songs, is a known property, and a good late-in-the-year film for the whole family to go to, helping ticket sales. Put it this way-everyone is going to be curious about this in the same way they were Barbie. It also had the good sense to hire global superstar Ariana Grande as one of its leads, which should help internationally.
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 billion: A couple of reasons spring to mind. First, no live-action musical has ever done it. Second, it's been postponed so many times I wonder if it'll hit its release date (I'll believe it when I see it). Third, I do wonder if it will be good-the creative decision to split the film into halves reeks of someone who doesn't know how to edit, and that doesn't portend well for reviews (which don't matter for opening weekend, but definitely do for legs). And lastly, I do think the casting could be an issue (i.e. I don't think Ariana Grande was the right choice for this movie). But I feel like this is the closest we get in 2024 to a movie in the mold of Barbie/Mario, so I'm including it.
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: There are very few "franchise starter" films that we haven't already listed that could make it here. The one that I'm most curious about its box office performance would be Borderlands, which is based on one of the bestselling video games of all-time. After Mario and Five Nights at Freddy's this year, it would be foolish not to at least consider this is a sleeper hit in the making.
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