So today I thought it'd be fun to move on to the next question (or at least take a sneak peak at it)-guessing whom they'll run with. With Biden, this isn't a question. You will read the occasional article in the next few months about Biden "considering dropping Kamala Harris for X" but don't believe it-this is just clickbait. Biden is not going to drop the first female Vice President under any circumstances, so Biden/Harris is the Democratic ticket once again. But Donald Trump will definitely ditch Mike Pence later this year, and pick someone more aligned to his MAGA brand. Below, we're going to take a look at my current predictions, with #1 being my most-likely guess as to who will be Trump's running-mate in November.
First off, let's take a few names off of the list. Pence is not happening, and neither is Ron DeSantis. DeSantis has run one of the worst presidential campaigns in recent memory, up there with Joe Lieberman in 2004 and Scott Walker in 2016 in terms of sheer ineptitude, taking a solid springboard position & drowning under it. DeSantis has proven himself to be awkward, a terrible campaigner, & simply unfit for the national stage in the era of YouTube. Trump's someone who gets secondhand embarrassment a lot (but weirdly never first-hand embarrassment), and likely is reveling in DeSantis being mocked publicly...and he's not going to want to condone that in his campaign. On the flip side, I don't think Trump will pick some of the bolder names in the MAGA movement, even if they might be his preference overall. I am sure people like Kari Lake, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tommy Tuberville, & Tucker Carlson will be considered by Trump (maybe even floated publicly), but he's not going to pick them (Lake, in particular, won't be an option given her Senate run in Arizona). I'll also say that Trump will want someone more at-home on television, which likely precludes Ben Carson, whose work in the Trump administration and surprisingly strong polling position in the 2016 presidential election (the only candidate other than Jeb Bush to lead Trump in the polls that cycle at some point), might make him an option, but whose public speaking style is too boring for Trump. No, I suspect Trump will pick one of the following ten.
Ron DeSantis is Exhibit A in terms of a candidate who shouldn't have run for president, but did. But if you want an Exhibit B, it's Tim Scott. For many years, Scott has been bandied around as a powerhouse in the Republican Party, the future of the GOP who could come in as a presidential candidate at some point. But his ability on the debate stage was lacking (he regularly got dwarfed by Nikki Haley & Vivek Ramaswamy), and he left no impression when he left other than his "girlfriend in Canada" routine that likely killed his campaign. Scott's still a decent guess for Trump. You'll see this throughout this article, but one of the things Trump is looking for is a loyal soldier, but one who isn't tainted by MAGA extremism so that more establishment Republicans (who might skip a Trump/Greene ticket) have an excuse to say "well X will moderate him" and Scott would fit that bill. It's also worth noting that with Trump needing to grow his base with either voters of color or female voters, I doubt he'll pick a white man as his running-mate (there's only one on this list for a reason). This won't necessarily work to get him more votes with Black voters, but I think the thinking amongst Republicans is that with Trump showing some strength with Black men in the polls, picking a Black man could help him, and Scott is one of the few prominent Black men who holds office in the Republican Party right now.
While there are more women than Black men in public office for the Republicans, I'll be honest-even that is slim pickings compared to the Democrats, particularly when it comes to the Senate. It seems insane to not list many senators in a VP Top 10, though it's worth noting that since 1980, only one Republican running-mate (Dan Quayle) came from the Senate (Democrats have picked a senator eight times in that time frame, a weird discrepancy I just put together while writing this article, and one whose rationale I don't really understand). Of the women in the Senate, the only one who makes sense as Trump's running-mate would be Joni Ernst, who is conservative enough and has some military background (she's the first female veteran to serve in the US Senate, though she was later joined by Tammy Duckworth in that distinction) to make her feel like a good option for Trump. She's not the best public speaker, but was considered to be a running-mate for Trump in 2016 before he ultimately picked Mike Pence. I just don't know if she's flashy enough for Trump's liking. If he wants another running-mate similar to Pence, she'd be toward the top of the list.
Ernst's fellow Iowa Republican Kim Reynolds would also be a good pick for Trump. She's very conservative, and spent much of Trump's time in office fighting on his behalf against Attorney General Tom Miller over fights against the presidential administration (this shouldn't be a qualifier for a VP, when the goal is both "first do no harm" and "can they win me some extra votes" but I would assume Trump's thought process will stay first-and-foremost on "will they let me get away with things?" since that was his biggest complaint about his first cabinet & VP picks). Reynolds would be in the Top 5 here had she not done something totally unexpected: she endorsed Ron DeSantis in the presidential primary. Trump, someone who demands undying loyalty, might not consider a woman who wouldn't stand beside him in the presidential primary...but there's too few women of the right age & political office in the Republican Party right now for Reynolds to be totally discounted from the list on that alone.
Illustrating how few African-American Republicans there are in the party right now, we have Byron Donalds up next. Donalds is not a serious option if you want a ready-from-day-one option-he's a second-term congressman with no previous government experience. Like Trump, he is not qualified to be president and doesn't have the know-how to run the country. But Donalds is unquestionably loyal to the former president, repeatedly claiming that Joe Biden is not the "legitimate" president of the United States, and he is one of the few Black members of the House GOP caucus. He also gained some fame from being repeatedly named as an option to replace Kevin McCarthy in his unsuccessful runs for Speaker of the House. Donalds being picked would show that Trump has only room for loyalists in his presidential cabinet, and would be a halfhearted attempt to win over Black voters. It would also be a way for Trump, who loves marketing with your name more than anything else, to narcissistically have an "all Donald" ticket (don't look at me like that-you know if you pitched it that way to him it'd spark his interest).
Huckabee Sanders is probably our first truly serious contender. Slots #7-10 feel like names that would show up on the shortlist, but ultimately never get Trump's approval. Huckabee Sanders, though, is someone who has proven herself to be an intensely loyal figure to Trump, and because of her time as press secretary, is someone who is more familiar with the DC press corps (and how to work them) than anyone else on this list. As a result, given she's also a governor, she might be the best-suited for a Trump campaign that is going to rely heavily on trying to use the media's tendency to "both sides" on things like the January 6th insurrection to Trump's advantage. The reason she's not in the top five is not something you're supposed to say out loud, but is reality for Trump-she's not someone he thinks of as looking telegenic. This shouldn't be an issue, and it feels icky saying it, but if we're predicting what Trump would want, he tends to favor people out of central casting. It's likely why Huckabee Sanders lost weight-to even get on his radar. I just don't know if Trump will be able to get over that.
Nancy Mace, for example, feels more attuned to what Trump would want visually in terms of his running-mate, being a more traditionally attractive, by media-standards, option for the former president (I think talking like this is gross too, but if you're going to pretend that Trump, a man who has spent his entire career bad-mouthing women from Rosie O'Donnell to Carly Fiorina to Alicia Machado about their looks, is going to not care about how attractive his VP choice is, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you). Her biography also would be appealing in a vice presidential nominee. She's the daughter of an army officer, beat an incumbent Democrat to hold her current office, and ran a consulting firm, which could be used by Trump to attack Biden on the economy (still his best option, even in a relatively good economy like the current one). Mace's problem is she's a wild card-her views on abortion are confusing, and she tends to say what she wants to the press. That might honestly be great for the MAGA crowds who really only care about "own the libs" sorts of candidates (which Mace is), but Trump would probably prefer a telegenic loyalist...who knows their place. Mace doesn't fit that description.
JD Vance does though. Vance is the only straight white man on this list (probably the first time that's ever happened for a Republican vice presidential nomination rundown), but taking that out of the equation, he's perfect for Trump. He's a loyalist, young (not yet 40), and a sitting US Senator, one whose views on foreign policy would be quite friendly to Trump. Unlike someone like Joni Ernst, Vance would not have a problem with severely weakening NATO, which would be a priority under a second Trump term (Vance was one of only 11 senators to vote against the recent NDAA bill that made it impossible for a president to unilaterally exit NATO-both Ernst & Tim Scott backed the bill). Vance would also be a way to try to lure Peter Thiel back as a big-dollar donor, given he's his protégée, and because Trump is going to be needing money as he'll be bleeding a lot of it this year on legal expenses, that is a factor in his favor. Vance's biggest issue is he doesn't add a swing state (though he'd probably kill Sherrod Brown's shots at reelection, and therefore hand the Republicans the Senate), and he doesn't add any diversity to the ticket.
The Top 3 all completely feel like options for Trump, and probably are where the conventional money would be for the second slot. Elise Stefanik has done pretty much everything she could to stay available for this position. She was the only major member of the House GOP leadership not to run for Speaker when Kevin McCarthy was removed late last year, and I assume that was for a reason-she wanted to stay a viable option for Trump in 2024. She's young (like Vance, she's not even 40 yet), which would add youth to the ticket, she's transformed quickly into a hard-core conservative after some early years as a more moderate House member, and she's a die-hard Trump loyalist. She also doesn't have other options-she can't possibly run statewide in New York, so this is the only promotion other than House Speaker that she could ever get. I personally think if Trump is going to go for a Millennial woman that Sen. Katie Britt, who is a better public speaker (and more a running-mate out of central casting, which is Trump's MO), would make more sense but she's too new to the national stage, so Stefanik is his best bet if he wants to go for someone young, and on Capitol Hill.
Nikki Haley would be a conventional choice in a different era. Haley's a two-term former governor, was a member of Trump's first administration, and will likely end up in the second place position of the Republican nominees in 2024. She also has, unlike Chris Christie, made a point of going soft on Trump, saving her biggest criticisms for men like Ron DeSantis & Vivek Ramaswamy, rather than going after the frontrunner. This will cost her the nomination, but it also has shown her to be the most talented MAGA option on the stage for Trump. Normally, this would be a great audition process for him, and she'd get chosen, and I think even Trump is going to consider her. The two bigger hiccups for him, though, are whether or not he wants to go with someone who has (at least nominally) challenged him rather than just let him have a coronation, and two, whether a man who holds this position largely due to reality television, will go with such a conventional option as his running-mate. One of Trump's biggest regrets in 2016 was that he picked Mike Pence...will he choose someone that so closely resembles him in terms of expectations. It's also worth noting that while Haley has capitulated a lot to Trump, she's made a pretty impassioned plea in favor of NATO during her presidential campaign-will he want that on his ticket?
The best option for Trump, therefore, remains someone that the general public won't think of as being an obvious choice, but is to anyone paying attention to politics: South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem. She fits all of Trump's boxes. She'd add a diversity element (she's a woman) while also being a total MAGA loyalist. She's not going to get in the way of some of his sketchier dealings as president (just ask any South Dakota Democrat what it's like to watch Kristi Noem use Pierre the way Trump used DC), and she's conventionally attractive, which shouldn't be a factor but it's going to be for Trump. She's also one of the more experienced people on this list, coming in with congressional and gubernatorial backgrounds (she was in the House before she was in the governor's mansion, and defeated an incumbent Democrat to get that job so she knows how to run a tough race). The biggest concern with Noem is probably whether she'd pass a vice presidential background check. She allegedly had an affair with former Trump fundraiser Corey Lewandowski, despite both of them being married, which is probably the only thing going against her (other than her not having any extra credit with a swing state). All-in-all, she makes the most sense for what Trump would want for his #2.
4 comments:
This is an interesting list, John. Do you think Marco Rubio has a shot? I do feel, though, that HuckaSands and Vance aren't truly serious options. This is largely by virtue of them having only been in their offices for less than two years, therefore not even making it to half their first terms. Considering what happened with Sarah Palin or even Spiro Agnew, I'd wonder if Republicans might be keen to avoid that mistake again.
Thanks AV-I don't think Rubio has a shot. I think he's a conventional choice, but his presidential run in 2016 probably poisoned a lot of his shining star legend, and he's likely to remain just a backbench Senator, or maybe a cabinet choice. I don't see him ever getting to the national stage after screwing up in 2016...Chris Christie destroyed both of their careers in that debate.
I don't think Trump is going to care that much about picking a super established presence on the ticket, tbh. That seems to be something that he regretted about 2016, selecting Pence-he'll want a VP who would also say that the election was stolen, and you aren't necessarily going to get that with someone more conventional. Huckabee Sanders & Vance are probably not going to be picked, but I think at least one of them is seriously considered. I feel pretty good that the nominee is probably in the Top 3.
Makes sense, John. Also, I realized last night -- Rubio wouldn't work anyway, since he's also from Florida. Think Cindy Hyde-Smith has a chance?
I'm confident that Trump would relocate back to New York to make Rubio or DeSantis work if he really wanted to...if Bush/Cheney could pull it off, so could Trump.
Hyde-Smith is an interesting idea...I don't know how compelling she is a speaker, or if she'd be ready for the national stage. She's pretty low-key for a US Senator, but she'd be in the right age range.
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