Who is the Most Viable Third Party Candidate?

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I-NY)

Third party presidential candidates have been around since at least 1812 (depending on your definition, they might even be earlier), and have largely been, well, a nuisance in the political process.  The last time a third party presidential candidate won a state was in 1968 (George Wallace), and since the 1860's (when the Democratic & Republican Parties became dominant the United States), only once has a third party candidate won more votes than either the Democratic or Republican candidates for president...and in that case, it was a former president (Teddy Roosevelt) who did it, so it was less about third party and more about "Bring Back Roosevelt."

Third party candidates are a focus in political discourse not because they are going to be president, therefore, but because they are spoilers.  We have seen this many times, most blatantly in most Americans' lifetimes in the year 2000, when Ralph Nader's vote share in Florida was more than enough to have cost Vice President Al Gore the White House...and in the process ushered in eight years of President George W. Bush, which meant the Republicans won the Supreme Court for at least another couple of decades.  Other third party bids in 1968, 1980, & 2016 might not have had cost the Democrats the White House, but they definitely hurt their candidacies.

In 2024, it appears we may have a number of third party candidacies.  This past week, former Congresswoman Liz Cheney (R-WY) announced that she was considering a run as a way to "stop Donald Trump" if she felt that Joe Biden (or other Republicans) couldn't do it.  If she ran, she would be joined by attorney Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (son of the late New York senator with whom he shares a name and nephew to President John F. Kennedy), Dr. Cornel West (a well-known academic & activist), Dr. Jill Stein (a former Green Party candidate in 2012 & 2016), and potentially Sen. Joe Manchin, the moderate West Virginia senator who has been heavily courted by the No Labels movement.  Polling shows these figures, particularly Kennedy, in strong shape in a presidential candidacy, at least by third party standards; Kennedy, while in third place, if the debate qualifying period was today, would be the first third party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992 to qualify for the presidential debate.  

Dr. Jill Stein (G-MA)

But that polling is, well, stupid this far out.  People oftentimes talk about how polling 11 months out from an election is not indicative, and they're right.  What they're particularly right about, though, is that third party support tends to crater the closer you get to an election.  The primary reason that happens is because the American voting system (outside of Maine & Alaska) doesn't allow for you to cast a second place ballot.  Most states don't have Ranked-Choice Voting, and people don't want to vote for a loser.  Therefore, even if they might align with Stein or Kennedy or West more, they'll abandon them if they aren't viewed as serious candidates to actually win.  One of the main reasons that you can tell most third party candidacies are about ego & fame (rather than actually winning) is that very few candidates focus their careers on enacting RCV laws across the country, which if they were in every state, would allow for third party options to actually move forward.

That being said, third party candidacies are to be taken seriously.  They cost Gore the election in 2000, and Jill Stein certainly got enough votes in 2016 that (had all of those people voted for Hillary Clinton instead), Donald Trump would've been selling commemorative plates on Fox News in 2017 rather than serving in the Oval Office.  Third party candidacies, particularly ones that hurt one specific party (in presidential politics this century, that's been almost always the Democrats with the exception of Evan McMullin in 2016), can cost them states, and with that, put the White House at risk.

But here's the deal-if you look at the candidates I just listed, the one who polls the best is not one of the candidate I'm the most worried about: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.  Kennedy is polling well, in my opinion, because he's a Kennedy.  People are picturing someone like his nephew Rep. Joe Kennedy III or his sister Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, someone who is a generic public servant, but younger than Joe Biden & Donald Trump.

But RFK Jr. is not a generic Kennedy-he is very much the family's black sheep (and this is the Kennedys we're talking about...black sheep are not in short supply).  Kennedy is an anti-vaxxer, and has waffled publicly on his stance on abortion.  He has indulged in conspiracy theories around Covid-19 (saying the virus targeted specific racial demographics), said that mass shootings are linked to prescription drugs, has stated that the 2004 presidential election was stolen, and says that vaccines cause autism (none of which are true).  Kennedy has also admitted to flying on the Epstein jet (which would admittedly mean he's got that in common with Donald Trump).  Kennedy does have some liberal views, specifically on foreign policy & the environment, that would put him more in-line with Biden, but his biggest problem is he's weird, and not charismatic like a Kennedy normally is.  His polling feels inflated because of his famous last name...it won't stand up to long-term scrutiny.

The same can be said for West & Stein.  Cornel West's personal finances indicate that this run might have more to do with bankrolling his lifestyle than anything else, and without an extensive fundraising apparatus (which, unlike Kennedy who has had proximity to political parties for decades, West doesn't easily have access to), he'll struggle to make it on the ballot in too many states.  Jill Stein is on her third run, and while she'd be the frontrunner given her name recognition in 2024 for the Green Party nomination, her past two runs are going to make it hard to win over additional support.  Also, if the country wants a younger president neither West nor Stein fit that bill, as they'll be 71 and 74, respectively, next year.  Both West & Stein could steal votes from Biden in a Florida 2000 election, true, but I doubt they matter much in a normal scenario.  More Kanye West, less Ralph Nader.

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY)

So if you asked me whom I'm actually worried, it's Cheney or Manchin.  Weirdly, Cheney, who is much more conservative than Manchin, poses a greater risk to Biden than the actual Democratic senator does.  Cheney's run would be largely focused on preserving democracy, a noble cause to be sure (and one she's been pretty principled about), but there's no base for that in the Republican Party.  Any voters who are fans of Cheney's cause already are on Team Biden-she's not going to win over anyone with a run, and her candidacy would only be to peel off voters in states like Arizona or Georgia who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, but then won Joe Biden the White House in 2020.  Unlike Kennedy or West, Cheney's a seasoned politician & one who (presumably) doesn't have a lot of skeletons in the closet because they would've come out by now.  Her run would feature a serious candidate, one with strong name recognition, who would only hurt Biden.  A bad scenario Democrats don't want.

It's not entirely clear who the audience for a Manchin candidacy would be, other than disaffected voters.  Manchin's politics, unlike Cheney's, run the gamut; he's similar to Kennedy, but without the conspiracy theories.  Manchin could be an avenue for Trump voters who can't stomach Biden, but would prefer to have a less crazy option than Trump (or are just tired of him at this point); think the people actively hoping for Nikki Haley to be the Republican nominee.  On the flip side, those moderate Romney-Biden voters might be interested in Manchin given he is the current poster child for moderation in the country, and is a skilled retail politician (though, like Biden, Trump, & Stein, he's old-Manchin will be 77 on Election Day next year).

It's worth noting that Cheney & Manchin are both only publicly considering runs, not actually doing them, and I would imagine that the Biden team is working behind-the-scenes (in Cheney's case, pleading with poll numbers that Biden's the only viable option, with Manchin...honestly offering him any ambassadorship in a second term that he wants) to keep them out of the race.  But for me, these are the two that make me nervous.  Kennedy, West, & Stein...they're just poll numbers of people who are pissed about a Biden/Trump rematch, and less people who are actually going to vote for these candidates when it comes down to voting.