A Convicted Trump Would Lose

A little over a week ago I wrote a long, rather unnerving (for me, at least) article about Trump being the favorite in 2024, and I stand behind that even with a change in the polls in the past week that started to show a slight rebound for President Biden, I suspect because of lowering gas prices and a rising stock market starting to sink in for some voters.  Trump leads in enough polls, and the fundamentals around Biden's approval ratings have not changed enough for me to think Biden is in the driver's seat, though as I said in the article, Trump remains only a mild favorite, and it's worth noting he remains a mild favorite in our current environment.  So let's talk about the single biggest question in 2024, the one question that will change the presidential race more than pretty much any other foreseeable change: what happens if Donald Trump is convicted of a crime and sentenced to time in prison?

Former President Donald Trump currently faces cases in Georgia, New York, and two cases in federal court in DC, one pertaining to his mishandling of classified documents and the other in connection to his involvement with the terrorist attacks on January 6th at the US Capitol.  It is not entirely clear if any of these trials will have completed in time for Trump to have a conviction (or be exonerated) before the election on November 5th next year.  Trump has made a habit of delaying criminal cases as much as possible (it is perhaps his greatest political superpower), so while all four trials are currently scheduled for 2024, it's not clear all (or any) will complete by Election Day.  It's worth noting, of course, that there's always the possibility that Trump faces more indictments, either from one of Jack Smith's investigations or from the ongoing fake electors cases in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, & Michigan, which would add further complications into this conversation...but as we have 91indictments on the table already, let's assume that if he is convicted it's for one of them.

So let's say that one of these indictments result in Donald Trump becoming the first former president in the history of the United States to be convicted of a felony, likely resulting in at least some jail-time for the former president.  In that case, three things would happen.  The first would be that the Republicans would rush to defend the former president, likely even saying this was done to help elect Joe Biden in 2024.  The second would be the Republicans would try to find a way to remove Trump from the ballot, likely with either his runningmate or one of the candidates that he beat in the Republican Presidential Primary (currently, that looks like it would be Nikki Haley...possibly for both positions) being the nominee.  And third, Joe Biden would win reelection.

Special Counsel Jack Smith

I'll break out all three for you.  First, the Republicans have lost control of the boat with Trump.  Their only hope is that they get rescued by another boat (by Trump winning, here by not getting a conviction & Biden's approval ratings staying in the toilet), but the old Republican Party, the one that could've cut ties with Trump before the 2024 election, is dead.  Trump does not represent a majority of the country (more on this in a second), but he represents a vast majority of the Republican Party, and to abandon him would be to abandon the bulk of his supporters.  Being seen as disloyal to Trump could hurt candidates in primaries, it could hurt them in the general election, and it could hurt them in terms of future elections.  About the only major Republicans currently in federal office who have made a consistent point of not backing Trump are Sens. Mitt Romney (UT) and Lisa Murkowski (AK), the former so unpopular at this point he's retiring after one term, the latter a unicorn protected by Ranked-Choice Voting (who honestly should've switched parties by now she's such an island of integrity & moderation compared to the rest of the congressional Republicans).  This is all to say-the first reaction will not be "it's time to move on" but "it's time to dig in our heels."

This will make the second step even harder to do.  It is clear that none of these cases will be resolved by Super Tuesday-we'll be lucky if any of them will have even started by that time.  It is probable that the earliest case would not happen until well into the primary season, possibly into next summer, at which point Trump (based on current polling) would be the Republican presidential nominee.  Technically, he's the nominee in name only because the convention hasn't happened, but convention rules will make getting rid of Trump very difficult the later in the year we go (if it's post-convention, it's basically not an option given early voting...a Trump conviction in September of next year, a totally plausible scenario, would basically put the GOP in a position where they don't have any options even before the election other than to stand behind Trump or give in to a Biden second term).

But they might not even want options.  Trump will not go quietly-he knows that the best (only?) way he stays out of jail is to be elected president (it's still insane that's a sentence I'm actually writing), and while he may be able to get a public guarantee from someone like Nikki Haley, why would he want that instead of trying for the sure thing-him being on the ballot himself.  Even if Haley would be a much likelier candidate to win at that point, Trump's ego has always gotten in the way of his judgment-I doubt he gives up his spot as the nominee under any circumstances because it's his strongest trump card (pun unavoidable).  And if they remove Trump without his consent, the GOP will be signing their death warrant.  If even just 5% of MAGA voters decide to write-in Trump's name or stay home, the Republicans will lose the White House, and probably lose both houses of Congress...and honestly, 5% seems like a low estimate.

All of this is to say-Joe Biden will win if Donald Trump is convicted of a felony.  This is not, as Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia tweeted this morning, a case similar to the Access Hollywood video, where there's a way that voters will regress to the mean the further we get from the story.  Other than a Biden health scare or nuclear war, there's pretty much nothing that can top "current Republican nominee for President is in jail" as a headline, even on Fox News.  And as I said above, while the majority of the Republican Party will vote for Trump no matter what, that's not the case for the general electorate.  Commentators are right when they say that 40% of the country will vote for Trump under any circumstance...but that doesn't win you an election.  Joe Biden won the election in 2020.  Trump needs some of Biden's 2020 supporters to either join his side, vote third party, or stay home...he cannot win with his 2020 electorate alone.  In the case of a conviction, the opposite will happen-Biden's coalition likely stays intact, but Trump's coalition surely loses some chunks of voters to third parties, staying home, or "holding their nose for Biden."  Trump can't win with a conviction, and depending on how it would shake out, it's probably a situation where the Democrats would get another trifecta.  Trump is the favorite for now, but he comes with 91 flashing neon warning signs, any of which could destroy Republicans' chances next year.