Will We Get More Women in the Senate in 2024?

The start of the 116th Congress was a watershed moment for women in the Senate.  After the elections of Kyrsten Sinema (AZ), Jacky Rosen (NV), & Marsha Blackburn (TN) (along with the appointment of Martha McSally to the late John McCain's seat), for the first time ever, a quarter of the Senate was female, a quick six years after the number of women in the Senate hit 20.  This was an historic marker in the quest for parity in the chamber, important in a country where (in 2020) 9.7 million more women voted than men.  We are four years after that fact, and in an election season where Rosen, Sinema, & Blackburn are up for reelection, and the number of women in the Senate is...exactly the same.  The last two election cycles have been shockingly still in terms of growth for women in the Senate, and as women approach the next benchmark of 30 (and eventually 50), it begs the question of if there will be any progress on this metric headed into next year.

Before we dive into next year, it's worth talking about why there aren't more female senators right now.  The fault, it has to be said, lies with the Democrats.  In the past two cycles, the Democrats have not elected a single woman, and the only new female Democratic senator during that time is Laphonza Butler, who is replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (also a woman).  The Democrats definitely tried to elect more women during that timeframe, nominating female candidates to major races like Sara Gideon, Theresa Greenfield, Cheri Beasley, & Val Demings...but they all lost.  Despite making up 60% of the Senate women, the Democrats didn't grow their numbers at all, and in fact were at a net loss because Vice President Harris was replaced by a man (Alex Padilla).  

Republicans admittedly only got a net gain of one woman during that time frame, but they did so with a lot of newly-elected women.  While appointed-senators Kelly Loeffler (who was appointed during the 116th Congress for the current high-water mark of 26) & Martha McSally lost, Cynthia Lummis (WY) and Katie Britt (AL) became the first women elected from their states.  Mitch McConnell has done remarkably well in recent years to reacting to criticism of his party for being too old, white, & male, and Britt in particular felt like someone that Senate leadership pushed hard in the wake of these criticisms over a sitting (male) member of Congress.

County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD)

Looking into 2024, it's worth noting that there's no guarantees here.  Both Butler & Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) are retiring, which means the Democrats need to make up ground there if they want to increase their numbers, and Sen. Sinema is still a question mark over whether she'll run again.  Sinema, in fact, is in a race with another woman (Republican Kari Lake), but public polling indicates they would both lose to Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) in a threeway race, meaning it's likely that at least three women will be gone from the Senate headed into 2025 at this rate.

But gains seem possible.  For starters, the current frontrunner to replace Stabenow appears to be Rep. Elissa Slotkin.  Of the four retiring male senators (to date), two of them have high-profile women running to replace them.  In Delaware, Sen. Tom Carper is certain to be replaced by Lisa Blunt Rochester, and while she needs to make it through a primary, Angela Alsobrooks looks to be at least the prohibitive frontrunner to win the seat currently held by Ben Cardin.  There's also the possibility still that Sen. Bernie Sanders will retire, and Rep. Becca Balint would be the strong favorite to succeed him if he were to forego a fourth term.

But most of the Republican challengers this cycle, save for Lake, are men.  The frontrunners for the nominations in Montana, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, & Pennsylvania are all men, all of which are seats currently held by men.  If the numbers are going to change here, it's clear that the Senate Democrats need to step up a bit (it's a bit absurd we haven't been able to get at least one freshman woman in 2020 or 2022), but the Republicans will need to actually follow the lead of Katie Britt, and elect a higher percentage of women when there's an opening in the Senate.