Primarying from the Middle

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN)

Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels (D-MN) is not a name you probably know if you live outside of the Twin Cities metro area.  Samuels spent a decade in the City Council before joining the Minneapolis School Board, and while he is a prominent local figure in politics, he is hardly someone that you'd consider to be nationally-known.  But in 2022, Samuels nearly did something that made national headlines-he came within two points of beating Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN), the first Muslim woman to be elected to Congress and a nationally-famous member of the House who is known as one of the founding members of "The Squad," a group of young, mostly female politicians who were elected in 2018 and have become famous as some of the most liberal members of Congress.

Samuels announced this week that he plans to mount another primary challenge against Omar (who has not announced if she'll run in 2024 or not, but is widely expected to do so).  Samuels is not the only Democrat that is considering a run against Omar, but he is currently the most prominent, and his close race in 2022 likely means he'll be given most of the attention in 2024 from those who wish to oust Omar.  This is part of a larger trend this year on both sides of the aisle to remove incumbents not just because of ideology, but because of their outspoken natures & becoming the personification of the "far left" and "far right" in their caucuses (and in the media).

Omar is uniquely vulnerable mostly because she has consistently underperformed the top-of-the-ticket in her solidly blue district.  In 2020, she got 64% of the vote (an easy victory-this is a safely blue district), but Joe Biden pulled off a far larger 80% of the MN-5 vote.  Omar, in fact, did worse than any other Democratic member of Congress in 2020 in comparison to Biden's share of the vote.  Her lack of popularity can be attributed to a variety of factors, but perhaps the most noteworthy amongst her critics are her views on Israel.  She has made comments in the past that Democratic lawmakers like Nita Lowey, Eliot Engel, & Kirsten Gillibrand have called "inappropriate," with Engel calling her comments "anti-semitic" (for the record, the comment that Omar made was that Engel criticized was 'I want to talk about the political influence in this country that says it is OK for people to push for allegiance to a foreign country').  And she has also stated that she thinks Israel, in its current form, is analogous to apartheid South Africa.

It's not entirely clear that Samuels is going to focus specifically on this in his campaign.  Sameuls is far friendlier to law enforcement, and probably would run to Omar's right (she is a backer of the "defund the police" movement) on criminal justice issues in his campaign.  Running-to-the-middle campaigns generally don't work unless the incumbent is involved in a scandal; think something like Alan Mollohan in 2010 who had a more conservative challenger in his primary in St. Sen. Mike Oliverio, but lost due to congressional investigations into Mollohan's investments.  If successful, this works in the reverse in the Trump Era, where someone can run to a more extreme or "more" liberal/conservative route than an incumbent, but can't do so from the middle.

But Omar is not the only incumbent who will face such a primary this coming election season.  Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) has received heavy criticism from members of her party, 22 of whom voted to censure her for her comments against the state of Israel, using the phrase "from the river to the sea" which is considered to be antisemitic.  Though Tlaib does not have a prominent primary challenger yet, she's expected to draw one.  Rep. Cori Bush does have a primary challenger, St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Ball, who has also been critical of Bush's views on Israel, as has Summer Lee, who is being challenged by Edgewood Borough Councilwoman Bhavini Patel.

Omar, Tlaib, Bush, & Lee are all four members of "The Squad," and it's not clear if any of them will lose this election.  Beating an incumbent member of Congress is tough, particularly in states that don't have Ranked-Choice Voting, and it's doubtful any of the challengers will get much help from major Democratic leaders even with the four of them being criticized as that's not really how DC works.  Rep. Dean Phillips is literally running against the president in a primary, and many prominent Democrats in his district are turning down the chance to run against him (I think foolishly, but that's a different article)-incumbents get deferred to by the powers-that-be, especially in the Democratic Party.  But it's worth asking the question of if this strategy is plausible-can a Democratic incumbent lose to someone from their right in a primary in the Trump Era in a blue district?

Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC)

So far, there's only been one prominent example on the GOP side, and that's Madison Cawthorn, but that comes with a catch.  Cawthorn did have a challenger that largely agreed with him on virtually every issue, but where his opponent (State Sen. Chuck Edwards) was able to beat him was through his behavior.  Cawthorn ran into numerous scandals (including what appeared to be a tape showing him participating in sexual behavior with another man), his public statements were usually far more circulated than his views on issues, and he was criticized for poor constituent services.  Republicans have other examples this year that could fall into the same path as Cawthorn (specifically Reps. Lauren Boebert & George Santos), but it was less about politics in his challenge, and more about behavior.

I'm not going to draw a line between the actions of the Democratic members here and the Republicans, because in at least Santos's case, he's been indicted on multiple crimes, and Cawthorn was also accused of insider trading by Sen. Thom Tillis (Boebert has not been accused of any crimes, though, like Cawthorn, she was caught on video participating in what appeared to be a sexual act with a man).  None of the four Squad members have been accused of any criminal wrongdoing (it's why I didn't back Tlaib's censure even if I didn't agree with the tenor of her comments).  But they have been accused of focusing more on attention than on legislating, and I suspect that, more than any specific viewpoint, will be how their primary challengers try to win since I don't know that they can win solely on the issue in such blue districts.  Anecdotally, I live in Minnesota, and it's by-far the most common criticism of Omar amongst her constituents.  So far, Madison Cawthorn is the only incumbent who has been able to really be thrown out because voters wanted someone more staid in office during the Trump years.  In 2024, both sides of the aisle will have primary challengers asking-do you want someone less polarizing in office?