Republicans Won't Find a Winning Message on Abortion

Sen. JD Vance (R-OH)

JD Vance, a freshman Republican senator from Ohio, shared a lengthy post on Twitter this morning in relation to the elections yesterday, specifically regarding the state's ballot initiative that overwhelmingly legalized abortion in the Buckeye State on Tuesday night.  Vance broke out the reasons (in his mind) that the Republicans lost the initiative.  First, he said that people voted for it because they felt the only other option was a "Heartbeat Bill," and thought this was an extreme that was easier than basically having all abortions illegal.  Second, he said that this was borne out of mistrust that the Republicans care about people who have unplanned pregnancies.  Third, people want exceptions for abortion even if they do want restrictions (which he claims is Donald Trump's position).  Fourth, he says that the Republicans have lost the conversation on the moral argument for abortion rights.  And fifth (and finally), he said that the Republicans were outspent.  He ends by saying that the people celebrating are essentially celebrating the "murder" of children.

I don't normally get into conversations disputing Republican talking points (life is too short for such misery), but I wanted to write an article about abortion rights anyway, and Vance gifted me this as a set-up.  I want to point out he's not wrong on all of these.  I do think, for example, that he's correct on Number 2-people, specifically women, do not trust Republicans to have their best interest when it comes to unplanned pregnancies, both in supporting those who become pregnant unexpectedly (i.e. with money for their pregnancies), and in making sure unplanned pregnancies don't happen.  The biggest crux in the anti-choice (a reminder that I don't use the term "pro-life" because it doesn't bare out when members of your position aren't carving out life of the mother exemptions in your bills) movement has always been the best way to prevent abortions is to prevent unwanted pregnancies through contraception, which in 2023 is darn near foolproof if taken properly.  Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) has been leading the charge on this within her party, introducing a bill that would make it easier for women to have access to over-the-counter contraception, and she voted for the Equal Access to Contraception for Veterans Act, as well as the Right to Contraception Act that would protect a woman's right to contraception (essentially codifying Griswold vs. Connecticut into law).

But here's the deal-most Republicans didn't join Mace in backing those bills.  Eight House Republicans (only three of which still hold office) backed the codification of Griswold even though every House Democrat did, and only 22 Republicans backed the veterans' bill.  While Vance didn't vote on these (the Senate didn't take them up, likely due to the filibuster, and also he wasn't in office yet), this is why no one believes Republicans want to prevent unplanned pregnancies-because when legislation is introduced to help women in these situations, the only party where a majority of their members back it is the Democratic Party.  Republicans will never be taken seriously on abortion issues until (at the very least) they start backing access to contraception as a realistic way to reduce unwanted pregnancies.

Other than the spending section (which he's right about-the Republicans got crushed there), the other three points are wrong.  The first is incorrect-we saw that in Virginia last night.  Gov. Glenn Youngkin ran on a 15-week ban on abortion, thinking this was a good compromise, one that has been floated by Republicans for years...and he lost the General Assembly.  Voters in states redder than Ohio (like Kansas) have also rejected limits on abortion rights.  To assume that this is solely because they're fighting against a middle ground that wasn't an option in Ohio lacks any sort of evidence.  This is also true of his third point; people don't want limits on abortion, and voters (again, especially women) are willing to come out in droves, frequently disregarding their party label, to make sure that right stays as the law.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC)

The fourth one is maybe his most interesting point, because it feels like double-speak, but double-speak that has already been proven not to work so it's telling that he's still parroting it.  Vance is in a situation where his party (including he himself, in this tweet) have referred to abortion as murder so frequently that a core part of his base believes it is.  It's true that Democrats oftentimes will highlight the most extreme examples of what the Republicans' laws will do (like forcing women to carry an ectopic pregnancy to term or forcing victims of rape & incest to carry their assaulters baby to term)...but these laws do do this.  Carving out exceptions for specific things gets really tricky when members of his own party are saying these things.  State Rep. Danny McCormick, a Republican from Louisiana, introduced a bill that would make a woman who had an abortion receive the same punishment as one who killed her child.  Gov. Ron DeSantis (FL) signed a bill that would make a doctor who performed an abortion after 15 weeks guilty of a felony.  Govs. Kevin Stitt (OK), Greg Abbott (TX), & Kay Ivey (AL) have all passed similar bills that would cause fines or imprisonment for doctors or women who had abortions.  People don't like this (particularly without exemptions), and they are standing up against it.  It's why the Democrats won in 2022, it's why they won last night...

And it's potentially why they could win in 2024.  There are some who think that Donald Trump's teflon status on this issue will save him, but I have my doubts.  Yes, I think that most did not seriously think that Trump was actually anti-choice in 2016 even though that was his stance (I still don't think it's his belief when the cameras are off).  This was a man who joked on Howard Stern about how he initially wanted his second wife Marla Maples to have an abortion, though Maples didn't (this appears to be in regard to the former president's daughter Tiffany, though neither Maples nor her daughter are referred to by name).  But after appointing the judges that overturned Roe, I doubt he can run against it.  He'll likely try to reframe the debate, but it's hard to imagine it'll work for him but virtually no other Republican.  Even if people don't believe that he personally is anti-choice, that's what electing him did, and will do nationally if he wins again.

Cause here's the dirty secret that Vance (and Trump) don't get-abortion rights are popular.  Not with Republicans in a primary, but with the general public.  Public polling and ballot initiatives have backed up that the majority of Americans are pro-choice, and they are not a silent majority.  Republicans have spent fifty years radicalizing their base around abortion rights, without realizing that in doing so they have a base that truly believes it's murder...and a base that is only a vocal majority within the GOP, not the electorate.  After telling your base that this is murder, it's hard to get them to compromise even if it's politically expedient, and you can't find common ground when you're demonizing the people who might be in the middle.  Vance literally calling it murder in the end of his tweet underscores how bad the GOP is at messaging here, and how unlikely they are to get the message-their "pro-life" platform isn't a winner, and about the only way they are going to get past this is when Democrats get abortion rights legalized nationwide again & all they can do is complain rather than pass laws making it illegal...and that'll require them to lose more elections.