Predicting the Oscar Visual Effects Shortlist

I've called this a classic film blog a few times in the past week, because that's what I think of it as (and also because saying its an elections blog with the word "rantings" in it is a big turnoff, even though it's all elections analysis, not some cable newscaster yelling at a camera...I frequently wish I'd gone with a different name, but we're too late now).  Anyway, I digress, but the point I'm trying to make here is we've been short on movie content the past few weeks, and we're going to change that today.  The Oscar shortlists are coming out next month, and with nearly every one of the major effects films out by now, it felt like the right time to talk about one of my favorite AMPAS parlor games-who is getting nominated for the Best Visual Effects' shortlist.

For those unfamiliar, the Academy puts out a shortlist each year for certain categories of the finalists for a nomination, and Visual Effects is one of those categories, putting ten options up, five of which will be nominated for the Oscars.  Predicting the Visual Effects shortlist is tougher than predicting the nominees (and certainly harder than the winner, though more on that in a second).  For starters, they frequently will go for movies on the shortlists they'd never actually nominate.  All three of the Fantastic Beasts and Jurassic World films made the shortlists, but neither of them scored a single nomination in this category.  The goal with predicting here is to understand that most of the frontrunners for a win will make it (but not all), at least one or two blockbusters which have no shot at a nomination but still get in, and to exclude at least one film that might've been perceived as a real contender for a nomination...if it had gotten into the race.

Sure Things

Usually I write these articles and break them out by sections, and we're going to do that today to give you a sense of the scale of this race.  The reality is for the winner, we don't have a sure thing.  Dune 2 got bumped to 2024, and that was the presumed lock for the win.  Without it, we're left with a race where the winner is definitely in-flux.  But there are three films that I think are inevitably going to make the shortlist: Oppenheimer, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, and The Creator.

Of the three, the only one I feel absolutely confident gets a nomination is Guardians 3, mostly because Marvel almost always gets into the race.  Since Iron Man in 2008, an MCU film has made it in every year it was eligible save for 2011 & 2015.  With three eligible films this year and as the one film that wasn't considered either a creative or commercial flop (also, armed with the previous two installments getting in here), it's a lock for a nomination, though given the MCU's drought in this category, it'd be a weird winner.

The other two feel like they could be threats for an actual win in the category, but could run into hiccups for a nomination.  Oppenheimer would be a probable victor for the win given it's the Best Picture frontrunner, but there are years where major Best Picture contenders get skipped because their effects don't make it from shortlist to nominee.  Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, & Mank are all recent Best Picture nominees that got shortlisted, but couldn't get to the big event.  That said, it's too big of a deal to not at least get on the shortlist.

The last one I feel confident about making it is The Creator.  The film is an original creation, from a major VFX house (Industrial Light & Magic), and it has genuinely impressive visual effects.  That it was a flop is going to hurt its chances at a nomination (and for sure a win) that would've been guaranteed if it'd been a hit...but it's not missing the shortlist given its pedigree and how good it looks.

Will the Academy Like It?

The second group here is filled with four films that might be the Academy's cup-of-tea, but it's hard to tell.  Ridley Scott movies can be Oscar magnets (Gladiator, Black Hawk Down, Thelma & Louise), but they also can be totally skipped over (The Last Duel).  The box office on Napoleon will probably tell some of this tale (this category, more than any, you can help your chances if you get a lot of money), and so will the ILM label, but it's possible that if it's a high-profile miss the Academy will just want to steer clear entirely.  Without many other major options, though, it'd be a reputable shortlisted contender.

The same could be said for Poor Things, an outside challenger for the actual win if it comes down to it, but here we have a smaller film that has an unusual approach, and the question will be if the effects are enough to get it into the race (I haven't seen it yet, I'm just going off of Lanthimos reputation and some early reviews, which love it but know it's a bit outside of Oscar's usual taste pallet).  We also have John Wick: Chapter 4, the best-reviewed film in an otherwise ignored franchise by the Academy (I honestly think even the shortlist might be a bridge too far here-it's not Jurassic World where a certain amount of bombast could get it into the semifinals).  And finally, there's The Little Mermaid.  We've had a couple of Disney's "live-action" remakes get into this race (The Jungle Book, The Lion King, & Mulan), but will Oscar care?  The big draw for the Disney live-action remakes has been their box office, and while this made money, it wasn't the gargantuan juggernaut that Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and The Lion King were.

Superheroes & Sequels

Here's where it becomes clear we're predicting the shortlist, not the ten films most-likely to be nominated for an award.  As I said above, there's always a couple of blockbusters that make the shortlist that have no chance at a nomination.  This year, those films might actually have a shot at a nomination (because it's a weak year for this category with Dune delayed and some "sure things" flopping), but if you are filling up your shortlist with a bunch of "supporting" effects movies, you're doing this wrong.  Only 1-2 of those movies make it each year.

Instead, you're more likely to find something like Transformers: Rise of the Beasts.  The Transformers franchise has had two nominations, but it got three additional shortlist citations, and Rise of the Beasts, while not a particularly big film in the franchise, is an inevitable shortlisted contender given its one of the few films this year where the Visual Effects are the main attraction.  Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is another film I'd bet pretty hard makes it, given the showy de-aging of Harrison Ford, and it being another franchise that has done well in this category (the first two films won the category).  I'm less confident in Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part 1 (I'm trying to list actual film titles in this article, but Mission Impossible 7 would've been so much easier) and Fast X, as they are really not in Oscar's wheelhouse and they both underwhelmed, but both series have been shortlisted before, so I'd keep them in your sights.

Finally, there's superhero movies.  With the exception of Guardians, there so far hasn't been a really obvious option for this category given how critically & commercially-lambasted superhero movies have been this year.  The Flash, Blue Beetle, Ant-Man in Quantumania, and The Marvels are all four films that their studios probably would like to forget (we still have Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom left).  But since 2011, only twice has a comic book movie not been in the shortlist also-rans (6th-10th place), and in one of those cases (2014) that was because three of the comic book films made it into Oscar's finalist list.  So 2017 is the only time since the dawn of the MCU that we've really skipped comic book movies all-together (and that was a year with Star Wars, Blade Runner, King Kong, & two Best Picture nominees in the running...i.e. a much more traditional year).  Something to keep in mind, and before you assume it'll be Aquaman-the MCU's track record for the shortlist is much better, so it has the better shot.

Odds & Ends

We'll finish up with a few films that warrant attention, but are probably not favorites for this category.  First, you've got two likely Best Picture nominees with supporting effects, but not as showy (or obvious) as Oppenheimer's: Killers of the Flower Moon and Barbie.  In a normal year, these would be easy to dismiss, but in a weak year, I think you should consider them in the running for a shortlist, though the nomination would be tough given how voting works in this category.  We've also got two films that haven't premiered wide yet, and so it's hard to tell how many effects they'll have, though the trailers indicate it'll be at least some: The Color Purple and Wonka.  Reserving the right to change my mind if either of these is more of an effects bonanza than I gathered.

And then there's animated films.  Only two animated movies (The Nightmare Before Christmas and Kubo and the Two Strings), both of them stop-motion, have made it into this category before, but there are occasions where animated films get into the shortlist.  The 1994 Lion King, as well as Soul in 2020, both got cited.  If the Academy is feeling adventurous, I could see either the watery aspects of Elemental or the kaleidoscope style of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse getting in (or honestly, even getting a nomination).  But they're stingy with animated films (pictures you'd think would've made it like Chicken Run, Monsters, Inc, or The Adventures of Tintin couldn't get on the shortlist), so it'd be a stretch.

My Final Shortlist Predictions (Alphabetical): 

The Creator

Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Killers of the Flower Moon

The Marvels

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

I feel like The Little Mermaid & Barbie could be real threats here (this list lacks more $500+ million movies than usual, and they both have that distinction), and I flipped a coin between The Marvels and Ant-Man (I am confident one of them shows up, have no idea which), but overall feel these are the ten most likely, with Napoleon, Flower Moon, & Spider-Verse being the most vulnerable.