Joe Biden and the Texas Genie

President Joe Biden (D-TX)

You're a Democrat, and a genie shows up in front of you.  He says that you get one wish-you get the chance to make the state of Texas blue.  Either you get to have Joe Biden win the state's 40 electoral votes, or Colin Allred will win the Senate race against Ted Cruz.  Nothing else will change-this isn't a case where "Texas is blue so that means another state is blue."  Every other race proceeds exactly as normal, and goes to the eventual victor.  But there's a catch with this wish-you only get one of them.  Either Biden wins Texas or Allred wins Texas, but not both.  Which one do you pick?

This question is something I've been thinking about in the wake of The New York Times polls this past weekend which rocked the political world, showing Donald Trump leading in five of the six key swing states on the map that Joe Biden won in 2020.  Trump was ahead in Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, & Georgia, while Biden led in Wisconsin.  There's a lot of weirdness in these polls (particularly it feels like there is not a great gage of whether or not Biden is losing massive support with Gen Z or if Gen Z is simply too difficult to poll), and there's a lot of oddness in the way that Trump stacks up to a Generic Democrat as opposed to Biden (i.e. he's crushed, though there's no such thing as a "Generic Democrat" if Joe Biden isn't one).  But it underscores a message-there's a very real possibility, maybe even a probability that Donald Trump wins next year.  He will certainly make it close.

When it comes to asking questions about elections odds this far out, you'll get a lot of pundits, including myself, saying the same script.  It's early.  It's unlikely that a lot of soft Biden supporters will stay home (particularly with early voting making it easier to get them to bank their votes) or vote against him when Trump is the alternative.  But in terms of your gut instincts, the genie example is a good one, because it forces you to reckon with just how confident you are with Biden.

The reason for that is that if you give Texas to Biden, you're virtually guaranteeing his reelection.  Assuming all but those mentioned six states that went for Biden in 2020 stayed blue in 2024, throwing Texas into his column would get Biden to 266 electoral votes-he'd literally just need one of those states, which seems near certain.  Texas is so vast, and so crucial to Donald Trump's numbers that there's no path forward for him without it.  A blue Texas would get Biden a win.  If you think he won't get one, or think that's a risk, you'd give it to him.

But there's a serious risk of that being gravy.  Give Biden at least Pennsylvania, Michigan, & Arizona (I'd argue his easiest path to victory), and he's at 271 electoral votes.  If you think he'll win these, Texas is just excess, and you wasted something truly valuable.  Because with Colin Allred, you'd get a huge leg-up in the battle for the Senate in 2024.  Current polling puts all of the Democratic seats in Biden states (save Arizona) on-track for Democratic victories.  Republican recruitment has been awful, and they're doing poorly in polls.  Even in Arizona, the math favors the Democrats.  But the plan for the Republicans to get the Senate majority is still pretty easy-they just need to beat two of the Democratic senators currently in Trump states: Jon Tester (MT), Sherrod Brown (OH), & Joe Manchin (WV).  Beating two of them feels probable, which is why the Republicans are favored for the Senate.  But if you give Texas to Allred, suddenly the math gets MUCH harder.  Let's say Jon Tester, the likeliest of the three to get crossover support, wins...you just took the Senate if Biden also won.  It would make the "probable" Senate takeover by the Republicans turn into a 50/50 race, one where (if you won), you would get a trifecta that doesn't care about the filibuster.  Abortion rights, the Dream Act, voting/gerrymandering reform, the Equality Act, even student loan reform-all becomes an option.  It's a big deal, and one you wouldn't waste unless you felt it was absolutely necessary.

So you see the conundrum-would you rather have a Biden victory that basically means you have no shot at the Senate, or would you rather assume Biden gets 270 on his own, and give your team a 50/50 shot at a trifecta?  There are no wrong answers here, but it's a better analogy than asking if you think Biden can win in 2024.  How you answer is the true measure of your confidence in the president's ability to beat Donald Trump and get a second term.