Why Doesn't Kevin McCarthy Understand Power?

Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)

Kevin McCarthy has had one of the more embarrassing tenures in recent history from a Republican Speaker of the House, and given that his competition for that title includes Newt Gingrich, Dennis Hastert, John Boehner, & Paul Ryan...that's saying something.  Like Gingrich, Boehner, & Ryan, it seems inevitable that at the end of this week, McCarthy is going to witness a government shutdown.  Much of the standoff is the result of conservatives in the House not wanting to go along with a Democratic President (Ryan, of course, somehow had a shutdown during a Republican trifecta, perhaps the most embarrassing failure of the quartet), and one has to wonder-why haven't Republicans learned from past government shutdowns?

This is because, in all four of these circumstances, the general public ended up blaming the Republicans, and it cost them in the next election.  The 1995-96 shutdowns, then the longest shutdowns in American history, dramatically hurt Bob Dole's approval ratings, and skyrocketed Bill Clinton's in the wake of Republicans caving...and Clinton went on to beat Dole later that year in the presidential election.  During John Boehner's tenure as Speaker, his 2013 government shutdown led to a shutout for Republicans in the Virginia statewide elections, despite polling showing them headed to a sweep right beforehand.  In 2018, the longest shutdown in American history, the Democrats won the next midterms, and eventually after the 2018-19 shutdown, they went on to win back the White House.  In every case, it's been almost exactly the same-Republicans take the blame (correctly, I might add) for not being able to pass a bill in the House, and Democrats end up gaining at the ballot box.  With just weeks to go before the Virginia General Assembly & Senate (both tossups for control) elections, Republicans in the state have to have a dartboard with McCarthy's face on it given what he's doing to their odds.

McCarthy, though, is a uniquely bad party leader.  It's worth noting that while Chuck Schumer has control of the Senate (the Democrats control the upper chamber), Mitch McConnell was ready-and-willing with a bipartisan deal that almost certainly McCarthy could've gotten through the House if he'd had the guts to do it (and partner with the Democrats).  But McCarthy is unique in terms of recent congressional leaders in that he is far more willing to capitulate to the far extremes of his party rather than play toward the middle.  You can see that with recent votes he's made members make.  The Republicans, in the middle of a government shutdown, are dealing with the nation's most embarrassing impeachment inquiry ever, where they're literally looking for evidence against President Joe Biden (truly, that's what they're doing in a congressional inquiry is fishing for evidence of a crime that was never committed) while their presumptive nominee, Donald Trump, faces 91 indictments (and counting) in four different jurisdictions.  McCarthy has pushed tough votes on his party that are guaranteed not to pass the Senate, including an agricultural bill that would cut farm-spending and back extreme positions on abortion, which we have seen time-and-again is an electoral loser for the Republican Party.  The defense bill he's pushing will cut the salary of Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to $1.  Austin, an Iraq War veteran who has a Silver Star, they're basically putting on unemployment...these are bad, unpopular bills that aren't going to become law & are really, really easy for future opponents to run campaigns against.

Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-NY)

Members of his party, quite frankly, appear sick of McCarthy giving in to the Matt Gaetz/Marjorie Taylor Greene wing of the GOP.  The Agriculture Bill, for example, Republicans like Don Bacon (NE), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA), and Anthony D'Esposito (NY) have all publicly questioned if they will support (without them, it's hard to see how McCarthy passes the bill with such a slim majority).  The bizarre thing about this, and it's been like this for months, is exactly why McCarthy seems to have no urge to placate to men like these three, rather than giving all of his control over to the Gaetz/Greene wing of the party.

This is because Bacon, Fitzpatrick, & D'Esposito are the truly valuable members of his caucus, not Greene or Gaetz.  There are currently 226 House seats that were won by Joe Biden, and only 209 that were won by Donald Trump in 2020.  With 222 seats in his majority, that means that 18 of McCarthy's incumbents (including Fitzpatrick, Bacon, & D'Esposito) won their seats by winning over Joe Biden voters, and in order to win in 2024, they'll have to do that again.  Greene & Gaetz are in safely red seats-McCarthy doesn't need to worry about them.  They'll win no matter what, and if they lose in a primary, they'll be replaced by another Republican-they are not valuable to deciding his majority.  But Bacon, Fitzpatrick & D'Esposito...they're worth their weight in gold.  If they're saying "I don't want to take that vote"...it's beyond insane that McCarthy isn't listening to them.

No other congressional leader of recent memory would've done this.  Chuck Schumer has spent much of his tenure as Senate Majority Leader listening to the many whims of Joe Manchin, but for a reason-Manchin needs Schumer far more than the reverse, given how red West Virginia is.  Mitch McConnell would never take a vote in the US Senate without first okaying it with Susan Collins, his blue state unicorn.  Collins or Manchin retire-those seats flip, end of story, and both Schumer & McConnell know that, and give them a wide berth to criticize leadership when they need to, and even take a contrary vote or two.  When some Democrats (like Rep. Conor Lamb) said they wouldn't vote for her as Speaker if they were elected Nancy Pelosi famously quipped in 2018 "just win, baby," caring more about getting 218 Democratic victories than what would happen to her after.  Pelosi, more than any recent congressional leader, made a point of making sure her incumbents never took a vote where they weren't 1) comfortable with what was happening and 2) where they weren't getting something out of it.  Pelosi pushed hard on some legislation (she likely knew when she passed the Affordable Care Act she was sending some blue moderates to their political graves), but she did so to ensure that major, landmark legislation got through-she wasn't going to give up any incumbent without a fight.  The idea of her, say, telling a red-district Democrat like Mary Peltola to back a gun control bill that would never get to the president's desk just to appease the Squad is insanity...and that's exactly what McCarthy is doing here.

But that's the difference between Pelosi & McCarthy-Pelosi knew that being Speaker was more than just a gavel & a title...it was also about having actual power.  Pelosi almost certainly would've given up at the beginning of this year if she couldn't make it past the first ballot...despite opposition in her party, she never had that problem, she always got a majority on the first ballot.  And that commanded respect-she didn't have to give in anything after-the-fact, and showed from the start she was able to lead the entire caucus.  She made deals, of course, but her caucus knew they couldn't blackmail her, and thus she could protect people like Peltola from taking performative votes.  McCarthy, though...he gave away everything to the point where this was just a ceremonial gig, and now he's paying for it.  Schumer, McConnell, Pelosi...they all have ruthless personal ambition, but they had a breaking point, and they knew they couldn't cross it, but McCarthy did.  It seems increasingly likely he'll have to give up his Speakership or effectively abandon his power (eventually the likes of Fitzpatrick & D'Esposito will sign a discharge petition when the public is fed up), but the damage will be done.  McCarthy has spent so much time trying to keep his job, he's largely sacrificed any advantage his party had headed into 2024.  And it won't just be his job that's lost, it'll be people like Bacon, Fitzpatrick, & D'Esposito...none of whom are as easily replaceable as the Republican from California who sold his soul to run the most dysfunctional Congress in a generation.