Lauren Boebert and the Modern Politics of Sex Scandals

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO)

Sex scandals feel, if we're being honest, kind of passé in 2023, especially in American politics.  Right now, a former president of the United States is facing felony indictments in four different jurisdictions, and somehow the one that is getting the least amount of press is the one that involves Donald Trump having an affair with a porn star and a former Playboy model.  But this week, we're definitely testing exactly how much the public is willing to put up with from a politician with the case of Rep. Lauren Boebert, the MAGA firebrand from Colorado who was caught on video publicly pleasuring her male companion at a theatrical production of the musical Beetlejuice.

Yes, you heard that right.  Boebert, a two-term congresswoman who was one of several hard-right Republicans who held up the Speaker's election of Kevin McCarthy earlier this year for days, was caught on camera with another man fondling her breast and with her appearing to be giving him a hand job (sorry, I don't really have a more delicate way of putting this) in a crowded Denver theater.  This video came to light after Boebert sarcastically apologized for being disruptive, taking photos during the performance (with flash), and vaping in her seat before being asked to leave.  Since then Boebert has given a less glib apology (atypical for her, which may underscore the seriousness this poses to her career, though likely not much sincerity from her), but in the process has become a laughingstock on social media, and likely has invited a host of conversations about her future in DC.

Like I said, sex scandals are not the death knell they used to be.  Politicians like Gary Hart once had their entire careers destroyed by sex scandals, but since then, people like Trump have proven you can survive it.  Most notably among current members of Congress is Rep. Scott DesJarlais, a married Republican from Tennessee, who despite being against abortion rights, pressured his mistress to have an abortion and had multiple affairs during his first marriage, including one with his patient (DesJarlais is a physician).  This week, we actually had multiple other sex scandals emerge.  Susanna Gibson, a Democratic candidate in the crucial elections for the Virginia General Assembly this fall, was revealed to have had sex with her husband on the live-streaming platform Chaturbate, for which they received some monetary compensation.  Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD), who is currently married, was revealed to have had had an affair with former Trump advisor Corey Lewandowski, putting at risk her position as a potential running-mate for Trump in 2024.

It's hard to know how this will impact these three women's political futures.  Gibson does not appear to be dropping out of her race in Virginia, and given that this was a consensual sex act with her husband, is probably going to be the easiest to defend, particularly since the candidate allegedly used the money she received from her video on Chaturbate for charity (though we'll find out in a few months if Gibson costs the Democrats the majority in the General Assembly).  Noem's going to have a harder time in her race, primarily because she's running for an audience of one.  It would be the height of hypocrisy for Donald Trump to punish Noem for having an affair, given not only is he currently under indictment for his sexual dalliances, but a previous affair with his second wife Marla Maples (while he was still married to his first wife Ivana) was front-page news on celebrity tabloids for much of the late 1980's and early 1990's.  However, women are held to different standards in politics, and it'd be easy seeing Trump write Noem off as "too much baggage" when he could find a less politically-damaged woman to run with like Kim Reynolds or Nikki Haley if he so chose.

Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD)

But Boebert...I kind of wonder if this is the end of the line for her.  Despite having the closest House race of 2022, I've been reluctant to write off her chances in 2024 because she does represent a Trump district, and because of her MAGA credentials, I thought she would be able to skate through a primary and make it through a general with Trump dragging her through.  Her district felt like it wouldn't be an issue until 2026 for Republicans.  But now?  I think Boebert is going to face a real primary challenge, and if she wins that, problems in the general election.  The difference between what she did and what Gibson & Noem did is pretty stark.  Gibson had sex on camera, but with her husband.  Noem had an affair with someone who wasn't her husband, but in private.  Both of these are easier to fold under the umbrella of "it's none of my business," the mantra of many when it comes to political sex scandals.  But Boebert-she committed sex acts in public, with people around, likely children given it's a family-friendly musical...I don't know how you come back from that, even in 2023.

Boebert currently faces three Republican challengers in her primary, with possibly more on the way given her vulnerability.  This could help Boebert, who already has raised $1.5 million so far this year, as Colorado doesn't have runoff laws-she could take a plurality of the vote and still win in the state at the current rate, even with the public scandal.  There's going to be pressure on Republicans to coalesce around one candidate against her to stand a chance, and I do think given her public problems (not just the sex scandal...she was already a lightning rod before that), they'll make an effort to do so.  But Boebert still has a seat in Congress, and is part of Kevin McCarthy's very slim majority; McCarthy cannot make too many moves (even if he knows the seat is at risk if she wins the nomination) without risking her ire if he faces a vote to vacate the chair.  Even in her weakened state, Boebert still has a lot of power if she chooses to use it...and will likely leverage that to her benefit.

The bigger problem for Boebert is that businessman Adam Frisch, who nearly beat her in 2022, is certain to be the Democratic nominee in 2024, and has raised 3x as much money as she has this year (this latest scandal will certainly increase that gap).  Boebert's issues with public decency, the sex scandal, and her blue-trending district make her uniquely vulnerable to under-performing the top of the ticket.  Trump won the district by 8.3-points in 2020, which would be hard for Frisch to make up even against a scandal-plagued incumbent, but since then the district has trended blue.  Jared Polis actually won the seat in 2022 (beating Republican Heidi Ganahi by 2.2-points) and Republican Joe O'Dea only beat Sen. Michael Bennet by 1.1-points.  If Trump is winning this by 3-points or less (which given the Polis/Bennet numbers, is plausible), Boebert could be swept out by Frisch thanks to being so personally unpopular Frisch would be able to attract some Trump voters who simply want Boebert gone even if it means putting up with a Democrat for a term.  After her performance at Beetlejuice, I am increasingly convinced that Boebert will lose (one way or the other) next year.  And given the closeness for the House majority battle in 2024, if Boebert loses to a Democrat, Kevin McCarthy's Speaker gavel is put even more in doubt.