Ron DeSantis Has a Problem

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)

We've been a bit lax lately on the blog.  I'll own that-it's been a chaotic few months at work, and also I'm trying to get into some new routines that are taking a toll on my time management skills...also, some mental health issues always pop up for me during the post-Christmas winter season, which is thankfully ending if the melting I hear on my roof right now is any indication.  But that means we haven't talked much politics lately, and while there hasn't been a lot (early in an off-year election cycle is not a great time to discuss electoral politics), I feel like we're a bit overdue to start the conversation about one of the leading figures in the 2024 presidential race, one who has had arguably the worst week so far in a campaign that technically hasn't even started yet: Ron DeSantis.

I think it's worth starting with my opinion on DeSantis as a politician.  DeSantis was a backbench congressmen until 2018, when he managed to pull off a contested Republican primary against Adam Putnam, who had been the heir apparent to the Florida's governor's mansion for almost 20 years when DeSantis bested him in the primary.  He did this based on the hearty endorsement of then-President Donald Trump, who liked DeSantis unwavering loyalty to him, and put his name behind DeSantis even as other prominent Florida politicians like Attorney General Pam Bondi & Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart backed Putnam.  The Democrats, meanwhile, made a huge tactical error by nominating Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (who'd eventually be indicted on multiple counts of wire fraud & conspiracy) over moderate Rep. Gwen Graham (who I maintain had enough support upstate to not just beat DeSantis, but drag Bill Nelson's Senate along with her in the single biggest error Democrats have made in a major primary in the 25 years I've watched politics).  Despite a national environment that favored Democrats, DeSantis bested Gillum, and has run Florida as a testing ground for conservative causes, particularly around Covid, transgender rights, and immigration, taking hardline views (shipping refugees to blue states on taxpayer dime, implementing the bigoted "Don't Say Gay" laws in Florida's public schools), and getting rewarded for it, winning reelection in 2022 by a healthy margin against a former governor.

This is DeSantis' biography, but not my opinion on him.  I'll be honest-I don't see him as a particularly skilled politician.  I think he had two really strong strokes of luck (Trump's endorsement and Democrats nominating Gillum instead of Graham), and then used a state with a reputation as a swing state that has grown increasingly red to underline his position as the "future" of the Republican Party.  Which he might be (I could be wrong about his acumen)...his polling started off extremely impressive this year, and the longer he waits, the harder it will be for other candidates like Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, & Mike Pence to get into the race as obvious counters to former President Donald Trump.  

But DeSantis is not a gifted public speaker.  He won through a series of good luck & being popular in a right-trending state.  But if you look at his politicking skills, they're not impressive.  He's not a good public speaker, frequently coming off as whiny (and though this shouldn't matter since he can't control it, his high-pitched voice is going to be a pretty easy target for both Trump and Saturday Night Live over the next year to turn him into a joke).  He wears high-heeled boots and appears rigid & stiff in public photos, wearing the similar sort of boxy suits that Trump wore but somehow even more ill-at-ease.  Politicians who are not natural pols can win their party's nomination, but they usually do so from much higher positions than "Governor of Florida"-think people like George HW Bush, Al Gore, & Mitt Romney, all kind of awkward public speakers, but ones with far more experience in presidential politics than DeSantis has at this point.

What's more concerning, though, for DeSantis supporters is that he doesn't appear to have a game plan to take on Trump.  Trump has gained in the polls recently, and any indictment will likely strengthen his support amongst the core group of voters that will not abandon him no matter what.  There's probably enough voters to get past Trump, but it will require DeSantis to do something that no other Republican has been willing to do-go after the former president.  They're going to have to attack him as someone who lost to Joe Biden, who endorses losers & cost the Republicans the Senate last year, and as someone who can't win in 2024.  DeSantis initial entreaties into the race indicate he's not willing to do that.  His stances on Ukraine and the Stormy Daniels' case were weak sauce, and allegedly shocked GOP donors (according to reports from NBC News) who thought that maybe they were backing him too quickly given the lead Trump has right now.  DeSantis is going to be given a task that no one has pulled off in a century-he has to beat two presidents in one election cycle (1912 was the last time this happened).  That's going to take a once-in-a-generation politician, someone who can match the magnetism of Donald Trump and then turn around and best the decency of Joe Biden...someone who is already hedging public statements on issues like Ukraine & the Trump indictment does not seem to me like a candidate who has the sort of skill set to beat even one of them, let alone both.  There's a lot of election left, but I'm not impressed so far.