The State of the Oscar Race

If you told me a decade ago what my life would be like, I would've had a lot of questions, and a few surprises.  But I think one of things that would've been a "REALLY?!?" reaction to me would be how I watch a lot less awards shows than I did at that time.  There was a time I sat through the entire EGOT, plus the Globes, Kennedy Center Honors, SAG Awards, even BAFTA if I could get my hands on it.  But now, despite this being a blog that we devote a disproportionate time to the Oscars, that's the only one that I watch religiously.  In fact, the last awards show I watched on TV (and not just clips of afterward) was, indeed, last year's Oscars.

There are a variety of reasons for this, but the biggest one is that they are all just so predictable.  This didn't used to be the case.  In 2002, for example, this is going to be hard for you to grasp, but all four of the acting winners (Brody, Kidman, Cooper, & Zeta-Jones) had competition heading into the Oscars.  The entire year had been great-a celebration of movies, but each of the major precursor award shows (BAFTA, SAG, & the Globes...I have never watched the CCA's because they've always just been about predicting the Oscars and in my opinion helped cause this problem...we actually have a personal policy on this blog we won't mention them, but I'm breaking that today given the subject matter), went their own way-it was an awesome year, and a truly exciting ceremony.

That stopped happening in the past 10-15 years, when social media, access to the shows, and the demand on each awards show being a "hint" at who would win Oscars (and not just some fun stop toward our final Oscar destination) made the awards feel more like a chore.  There was no celebration, no excitement...it was just "how would this impact the Oscar race?"  And since everyone else started to treat them that way, I did too...and since I didn't want to watch the same show four times, I stopped watching.  After all, I'll get all of these people giving speeches at the Oscars, so why bother with the rest if all they're going to do is "predict" the Oscars?

So color me delighted that this season is restoring my faith in these other awards and making me curious if I should start tuning back in.  We are headed into the Oscars with no actor winning all of these contests, and three of these races seem totally up-in-the-air.  People on Twitter seem upset about this, but no-this is what we want!  I would love to not predict any of the acting races right at the Oscars, because that'd mean Oscar didn't just indulge in groupthink, and I had a blast of excitement and surprise.  Personal pride is far less enjoyable than unexpected joy.

I am still finalizing my Oscar predictions right now (which I will make, and still enjoy making), but I figured it'd be a good idea to check in on how I'm leaning right now as a bit of a time capsule.  I'm skipping Best Supporting Actor, because despite Barry Keoghan's recent victory at the BAFTA Awards, Ke Huy Quan has dominated the rest of the season, and his film did so well with Oscar (I expect it to take Best Picture), that I don't see a way that he loses.  As for the remaining three races:

Actress: Despite the clear base of support for Andrea Riseborough (which hasn't been tested all season...Marcia Gay Harden's aura should never be forgotten), this is probably a race between Cate Blanchett & Michelle Yeoh.  In terms of awards, Blanchett took the BAFTA/Globe/CCA while Yeoh took SAG/Globe.  Both are in Best Picture nominees, and both are the sole leads of their films.  I think what's breaking the tie for me right now is that Yeoh has never won, and is clearly building real momentum to become the first Asian woman to win the Best Actress trophy.  Even Blanchett seems largely apathetic to whether she'll win or not (she's gone out of her way on the press tour to talk about what a legend Yeoh is), so the best argument for Blanchett is that it's the kind of performance that defines a career (you could make a serious argument that Blanchett is the best nominee in any category this year).  But right now, I'm inclined to favor Yeoh for my prediction.

Actor: Again, let's talk through the precursor awards first, since that's the framing device for this article (my writing manual from college sits above me, instructing me always).  Colin Farrell took the Globe, Austin Butler took the Globe/BAFTA, and Brendan Fraser took the SAG/CCA.  I talked about this on Twitter, but winning an Oscar is frequently about timing, and Farrell's the only one who has his timing right where this will help his career.  Butler is too young & hot to win a Best Actor award without suffering backlash (young male winners always flame out after they win an Oscar too early-just ask Adrien Brody or Timothy Hutton), while Fraser's performance will age poorly; the film is fat-phobic, he's a straight man playing a queer character, and the film, particularly the ending, is not subjectively not good...at least one of these is going to mean he's apologizing for this win in a few years whereas just a nomination likely means he gets a pass from the press.  Farrell, a 20+ year veteran of the film industry who's already endured multiple high's and low's, and at 46 (while still beautiful) is a grizzled handsome that's more in Oscar's wheelhouse (don't look at me like that-the same body that made DiCaprio, Pitt, & Newman wait decades into their careers before they won clearly doesn't love pretty men), would be fine winning for perhaps his best performance to date.

But Oscar is not a publicist, and Farrell has the least momentum headed into March.  My gut says that this is Fraser's to lose.  I feel like the arguments against him (he didn't get a Best Picture nomination, he didn't win the Globe), are negated by his noted (and warranted) hatred of the HFPA and the fact that The Whale was pretty close to a nomination.  Butler's film is better-liked, but his insistence on keeping the Elvis Presley voice post the film I think honestly makes him seem a little odd for Oscar voters, who will buy into the Fraser comeback narrative.  Comeback narratives don't always work (once again, ask Mickey Rourke, Eddie Murphy, or Sylvester Stallone), but with not enough heat for Farrell (a more conventional alternative than Butler), I think Fraser probably takes this.

Supporting Actress: Truly the most exciting and up-in-the-air race of the bunch.  Again, with the precursors we have Angela Bassett (Globes & CCA), Jamie Lee Curtis (SAG), and Kerry Condon (BAFTA).  Each of them have things in their favor, and things going against them.  Bassett is a legend who is the only Black woman competing in a year where the Oscars notably skipped multiple high-profile performances from Black women...but she's also playing a small role in a comic book movie, not remotely part of Oscar's wheelhouse.  Jamie Lee Curtis is also a screen icon, one that is notably popular with her costars, and is in the Best Picture frontrunner...but she's got internal competition from her costar Stephanie Hsu, and also films don't win three Oscars for acting very often.  And finally, you have Kerry Condon, who is an easy ambassador for her film (which looks more than likely to go home empty-handed if she doesn't win), and is a character actress in a cast full of men (a good way to win)...but she's also a virtual unknown, who was just "along for the ride" until BAFTA came a-calling.

The smart money here would be on Condon, mostly because it's such an easy mirror to how Sylvester Stallone lost the Oscar for Creed, given early momentum is upended by a BAFTA-winning stage veteran, who was the only winner for a Best Picture nominee (all of this is true both of Condon & the eventual man who beat Stallone, Mark Rylance).  That might be where I end up.  But there is a part of me that thinks Curtis could have this.  I've long said (and we might get into this later this week if I have time to write the article), but a film winning three Oscars for acting is something I'll never predict-I've been burned too many times before.  She's beloved, she is Hollywood royalty, and it's clear that the love for EEAAO is very, very palpable.  Stay tuned, but those are the two I'm wrestling between.