All right, we are at Oscar Eve, and I don't have a lot of time to get this out the door, so we are going to have very little preamble (you know the drill-we're predicting the nominees!). This year's Oscar race has been fascinating (late-breaking films, blockbusters in contention that normally wouldn't be up for such prizes), and has a few categories that have me totally baffled (Best Actress & Visual Effects at the top of the list). Below, you will find my predictions, with #1 being the one I'm most confident will get nominated (note-not the most confident it will win...those are two different things). Tomorrow we will find out if I'm right!
1. The Fabelmans
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. Elvis
7. Tar
8. The Whale
9. Babylon
10. All Quiet on the Western Front
Alts: Glass Onion, Women Talking
The Lowdown: We're back in a full ten-wide field (which I like better-make it five or make it ten, but make it uniform), and I personally think the Top 8 are pretty much set. Tar and The Whale are mostly extensions of what I'd consider to be (mild) frontrunners for the lead acting trophies, but in the expanded field that usually happens for such movies. For the final two, I'm going with Babylon, which I think will resonate with AMPAS even if the film didn't with general audiences & All Quiet on the Western Front, whose big push at the BAFTA's probably is enough to get it in with AMPAS. This means I'm leaving out Women Talking, which save for a SAG Cast nomination has underperformed all season, as well as Glass Onion, which totally would've gotten nominated if it'd gotten the $200+ million box office it would have had Netflix not gotten its mits on it.
1. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
2. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere...)
3. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Todd Field (Tar)
5. Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
Alts: James Cameron (Avatar 2), Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front)
The Lowdown: I don't buy the "Spielberg is Affleck in 2012" thing because I think Spielberg clearly wants this Oscar, and is respected in a way Affleck is not yet. Cameron & Berger could easily displace Field or or Luhrmann, but I'm keeping them out despite my potentially better judgment. The reason for this is that Field is returning in a big way & I think AMPAS will respect that, and Luhrmann has never been nominated for an Oscar before. Of the two, I think Berger is the likelier option than Cameron, for the record.
1. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
2. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Austin Butler (Elvis)
4. Bill Nighy (Living)
5. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Alts: Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto), Hugh Jackman (The Son)
The Lowdown: I have fought it for weeks, but the BAFTA nomination got me there for Mescal. I think the first four are largely set (though if Nighy missed I wouldn't be totally surprised given the film is so small), and it's a total free-for-all for fifth. Mescal getting nominated would mean this is the first time since 1934 that all of the nominees were first-timers for Best Actor, but Hanks film feels too slight, Jackman's too invisible, and even if it's your favorite film of the year, are you really crowing about Top Gun's acting?
1. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
2. Cate Blanchett (Tar)
3. Ana de Armas (Blonde)
4. Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
5. Margot Robbie (Babylon)
Alt: Viola Davis (The Woman King), Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
The Lowdown: I'm getting a little weird with this one. I think buzz for The Woman King is faltering a bit, and Williams is going to split her vote with the last minute push online for her to go supporting. Either could make it, but I think there's room for Margot Robbie to get in for Babylon. After a rough year (two high profile flops), I suspect that AMPAS will take an opportunity to show her that they still have her back. If there's a totally out-there nomination, I don't think it'll be Andrea Riseborough's last-minute push...however I could totally buy that Lesley Manville gets in for the extremely crowd-pleasing Mrs. Harris.
1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
2. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
5. Brad Pitt (Babylon)
Alt: Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
The Lowdown: This one feels more like a six-man race, with Dano, Redmayne, & Pitt all fighting it out for two slots. Redmayne has the momentum (he has yet to miss a precursor, and he's playing a serial killer in the movie, which is an Oscar favorite role), but I think that the other two will end up making it. Dano, I suspect, is the sort of actor that most people assume has an Oscar nomination by now & AMPAS will make a point of making it happen, while Pitt's work in Babylon in a lot of ways feels like it's the close of his career, or the type of performance he became famous for. He's strongly hinting he's considering retirement to the press, and has sold the majority stake in his company Plan B-maybe this will be a bon voyage nomination?
1. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
3. Hong Chau (The Whale)
4. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
5. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Alts: Janelle Monae (Glass Onion), Jean Smart (Babylon)
The Lowdown: I really, really want to get crazy here. I personally think that Condon is safe, the final nomination is a hodgepodge, but the real prize here is trying to guess which of Chau/Curtis/Bassett miss. All three have a key deficit (Bassett is in a comic book sequel, Curtis has been close to Oscar before but missed, and Chau is in a divisive movie we may be overestimating). I personally think one of them is the surprise miss tomorrow, but since I can't guess which, I'm going with all three making it, plus Hsu. Every fiber in me wants to predict Jean Smart, but Babylon's box office has to factor somewhere and I already gave it two acting nominations.
1. Women Talking
2. The Whale
3. Glass Onion
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Living
Alt: She Said
The Lowdown: This seems pretty locked in place, right? Both of the writing categories feel like there's very little room for anything else. The clear vulnerabilities here are All Quiet on the Western Front (though it's not like the original Best Picture winner is a movie that's referenced in the way a Gone with the Wind remake might be, so I doubt that it's an issue), and Living, which has a Nobel Laureate writing it, which should stave off She Said, which I think most of Hollywood is pretending didn't happen given the box office.
Original Screenplay
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. The Fabelmans
4. Tar
5. Triangle of Sadness
Alts: Decision to Leave, Babylon
The Lowdown: Again, this feels pretty much exactly like what you'd expect, and I honestly feel even more confident in this one than I do Adapted. Babylon is more of a visual spectacle, so it being skipped here makes sense even if it does well elsewhere, and while Decision to Leave has a fantastically complicated script, I'm not sure enough people saw it. Despite The Fabelmans' under-performance at BAFTA, it still got here, and all the rest are very much "writer's" films.
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
3. Close (Belgium)
4. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
5. Bardo (Mexico)
Alt: EO (Poland), Joyland (Pakistan), Saint Omer (France)
The Lowdown: In terms of the OVP, I'm going to have some catching up to do as the only three of the 15 shortlisted films I've seen as of this writing are All Quiet on the Western Front, Corsage & Decision to Leave, so at the very least I'll need to see two here. As a result, I'm going mostly on buzz. Decision to Leave could easily miss (their recent interest in Korean cinema is very new, so it's hard to tell how lasting it will be), and Bardo I'm listing primarily because Alejandro Gnzalez Inarritu has received at least one nomination for every film he's made since 2000, but any of the three alternates (all of whom have their advocates) would make total sense.
1. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
4. Wendell & Wild
5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Alts: Lightyear, My Father's Dragon
The Lowdown: I will be honest-I personally think that pretty much everyone is underestimating Disney here, and I really want to predict Lightyear, which feels like a nomination that could happen solely based on how many people in this category owe their livelihood to the Mouse House staying afloat. Wendell is very quiet, Marcel super atypical for Oscar, and My Father's Dragon is much more juvenile than you'd normally get from Cartoon Saloon. All of that leaves room for Lightyear to sneak in (Toy Story has never missed with Oscar)...but I don't have the guts to predict it.
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. The Batman
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alts: All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon
The Lowdown: At the last minute I'm taking out Babylon, which I originally had in fifth place, and putting in Everything Everywhere All at Once after its strong BAFTA showing...I feel like if it's going to get the kinds of numbers it gets for the Big 8, it needs to get a couple of tech nominations, and with it out of contention for VFX, this is an easy spot to go with. Really Slots 4-7 are all very close-just the Top 3 here missing would surprise me. All Quiet is sort of in limbo-it's the sort of film that could get 2-3 nominations or 10-11...not having box office on it is really holding me back from going all in for the movie.
1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Women Talking
5. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Alt: All Quiet on the Western Front
The Lowdown: I'm going to be honest-beyond John Williams, I don't entirely know what happens here (people who aren't predicting him have not been to this dance before-Williams has missed maybe three times in the past forty years, and never for a Best Picture nominee). I'm going with an entire group of previous nominees, which doesn't usually happen even for Oscar's most insular branch (usually one first-timer sneaks in). Hurwitz has done well with Babylon all season (though I still think that Fabelmans gets a win here at the end of it). If there's a surprise, maybe this is another spot that All Quiet can show up?
1. "Hold My Hand" (Top Gun: Maverick)
2. "Naatu Naatu" (RRR)
3. "Ciao Papa," (Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio)
4. "Lift Me Up," (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
5. "Applause," (Tell It Like a Woman)
Alt: "Carolina" (Where the Crawdads Sing), "Til You're Home" (A Man Called Otto)
The Lowdown: Consistently one of the hardest categories to predict. I don't personally think "Ciao Papa" is a great song, tbh, but it's yet another way to honor Alexandre Desplat so I'm keeping it, and I'm betting that the branch delivers Lady Gaga & Rihanna for the Academy but not Taylor Swift. Honestly, if they finally give up Diane Warren (the Honorary Oscar might've helped on that front-we'll know tomorrow), I wonder if Rita Wilson, who has long been an attendee but not a nominee, will get her due for A Man Called Otto.
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Empire of Light
3. The Fabelmans
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. Bardo
Alts: All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis
The Lowdown: I'll own it-I think it's weird that Top Gun: Maverick is doing so well here, as I don't know if I'd even nominate it personally for Cinematography while the precursors are letting it stampede. I'm going to guess that Bardo gets in here based on the AGI love from Oscar, and Avatar despite a sketchy season also makes it. This is another place where All Quiet on the Western Front could sneak in (as could Mandy Walker for Elvis, who has been close here a few times), but it's hard at this point to tell how strong it is.
1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5. Corsage
Alt: Living, The Woman King
The Lowdown: I honestly feel pretty good on this one. Corsage is a totally out-there nomination from a branch that loves to pull that (like Makeup, it frequently doesn't give a crap if your movie made money, which should also help Babylon). Corsage could easily be replaced with something easier (like Sandy Powell's impeccable tailoring in Living or the stylings within The Woman King, which is another film that I might be underestimating but I feel like premiered too long ago), but I feel like this should be a pretty close to copy with Oscar.
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. The Fabelmans
5. Elvis
Alts: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin
The Lowdown: It's hard to tell sometimes with a category like this how hard you go in with a Best Picture contender. Like, Banshees and Fabelmans are not what you'd call obvious "editing" contenders, even if they have their points...but if the Best Picture wind is strong enough history tells us they could be in. I think Fabelmans makes it because I think it has a stronger shot at the top prize, and also because it's more "cinematic" and I'll keep Banshees on the sidelines, with four other showy Best Picture nominees in the remaining slots.
1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. The Batman
4. Blonde
5. Amsterdam
Alt: Babylon
The Lowdown: The Makeup branch is famous for pulling a fast one on the rest of AMPAS, standing apart in a way none of the other tech branches ever do (which is good-Best Makeup does not inherently correlate to what Best Picture is). As a result, I think they'll go for at least one of the three films that are shortlisted that will show up nowhere else, and Amsterdam (with its starry cast & lots of retro looks) seems more likely than either Emancipation or Crimes of the Future. This means I'm leaving out Babylon, which feels off to me, as that's the more celebrated Margot Robbie picture this year, but with the Makeup branch, it's best to bet on against-the-grain.
1. Babylon
2. Elvis
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. The Fabelmans
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
Alt: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion
The Lowdown: The one category I feel confident that Babylon shows up, and Elvis, The Fabelmans, and Avatar, while they have their deficits, will probably get in as well. For the fifth nomination, I'm betting hard on All Quiet, which I still can't quite tell if this is a mistake (maybe this is just a movie that BAFTA went for harder than Oscar), but seems to have more momentum than Black Panther (which, it should be noted dominated the shortlists even though I'm hardly predicting it) and Glass Onion (which if it shows up in any tech category, will show up here for its elaborate & humorous set design).
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. The Batman
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
5. Jurassic World: Dominion
Alt: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Thirteen Lives
The Lowdown: Honestly, the single category I'm most curious about, and not just because it's one of my favorite categories. You could make a case for virtually any of the ten finalists, even the three I don't have listed as alternates; Nope, All Quiet on the Western Front, and Fantastic Beasts seem like they should be alternates given their position in the race. I went with this final list because A) Dr. Strange has the showier effects, and I think Black Panther suffers in direct comparison to Avatar due to the underwater shots, but I don't have the guts to not predict an MCU movie and B) I don't know if enough people will get into Thirteen Lives. As a result, I'm saving for the last category listed here my biggest "no guts, no glory" prediction, that somehow Jurassic World gets in without either of its predecessors making it (it's hit every benchmark save the BAFTA nomination all year).
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