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| Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer with Sens-Elect Peter Welch & John Fetterman |
Listed below, you'll find both the predictions I made in January 2021 and the election results in November 2022, with the #1 being the one most likely to flip (and indeed, for the November results the seat did flip) based solely on voter margin:
January 2021 Predictions
1. Pennsylvania
2. Georgia
3. North Carolina
4. Arizona
5. Wisconsin
6. Nevada
7. New Hampshire
8. Florida
9. Ohio
10. Alaska
November 2022 Actuals
1. Pennsylvania (flip)
2. Nevada
3. Wisconsin
4. Georgia
5. North Carolina
6. Arizona
7. Ohio
8. New Hampshire
9. Utah
10. Iowa
*-Note, this is in terms of "flipping" a race's partisan makeup, so Alaska doesn't count since it was two Republicans running; if included, it would've placed 8th on this list.
A few things stand out here. For the second year in a row, most of these races ended up being pretty stagnant if you don't pay that much attention to the rankings. Last year I got 70% accurate, and this year I got 80%. This proves a few things. For starters, it shows that people are increasingly unlikely to change-their-leaning even in a midterm-the swing states stayed swingy, and the rest stayed in-line. The entire Top 6 was exactly the same states in both, and so the only changes in the lists were in the bottom four slots. I had assumed that Murkowski would struggle if a serious Republican challenger (I speculated Sarah Palin) got into her race, potentially creating an opening for a Democrat. Weirdly that scenario did play out, but it was for the open House seat; Murkowski was fine, but Palin lost the House seat in a three way race against now-Rep. Mary Peltola (D). The one major change this cycle was in Florida, where Democrats recruited a major candidate (Val Demings), but the state's recent flirtation with solid red status made it so that it was next-to-impossible to win. 2024 will likely be the final cycle where Democrats seriously contest the state. On the flip side, in a cycle where a number of teflon incumbents (Chuck Schumer, Ron Wyden) saw their crazy high margins drop, Chuck Grassley will end his political career with its least impressive victory in decades, and Mike Lee got a scare from Independent candidate Evan McMullin.
Looking into 2024, there's a few things to note. First, this cycle starts out awful for the Democrats. The party is going to be kicking themselves for not investing more in Mandela Barnes & Cheri Beasley this past cycle (not to mention getting Sara Gideon that victory in 2020), as they have to defend multiple swing states and three Trump-state incumbents: Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, & Sherrod Brown. They have only room to lose one seat if they lose the White House & two seats if they keep the White House (spoiler alert-there is no realistic way that the Democrats hold the Senate if they don't hold the White House). Below are my earliest rankings with this in mind-#1 is the seat I most think will flip (and I assume it will).
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| Sens. Angus King & Amy Klobuchar |
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| Gov. Glenn Youngkin (D-VA) |
With Florida off of the list, I'm putting Virginia at #10 for a couple of reasons. For starters, Republicans have had a pretty strong past two years in the Old Dominion. In 2021, they swept the statewide offices, ushering in conservative Gov. Glenn Youngkin (in many ways serving as a warning shot that Wisconsin, Arizona, Oregon, & Michigan all heard loud-and-clear a year later), and Elaine Luria was the only Biden-seat incumbent Democrat to lose without a scandal or being from New York. Both of those add up to a state that at least flirts with Republicans still, and is certainly not yet Colorado. Youngkin is term-limited, and while it's true that he's got his eyes on a presidential run, a Senate race feels more up-his-alley (I don't think Youngkin's demeanor would appeal to the national Republican brand even if it might to the RNC establishment). Sen. Tim Kaine (D) has hinted before that he likes the idea of being a longtime senator after losing the vice presidency in 2016 and not running for the top job in 2020, so I'm assuming he'll run again. Youngkin vs. Kaine would be a tough battle, but would probably favor Kaine in a presidential race...but it's close enough to keep it in the Top 10 for now.
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| Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) |
Sen. Ted Cruz clearly does not want to be a senator-he wants to be president. And there is a strong possibility that he will run for the White House for a second time in 2024, particularly if Donald Trump ends up showing a weakened right flank like he is right now. Texas behaved somewhat like a normal wave state in 2022, reelecting Gov. Greg Abbott by a solid margin even as he took on a reputable challenger (Beto O'Rourke). However, Democrats still held two House seats in the Rio Grande Valley that would've gone red in an actual wave, knocking off an incumbent Republican in the process. Texas is trending to the left, that is near certain, but like some of the other trending states the question is if the trend will continue long enough for the Democrats to actually get a major victory statewide (a spoiler for the unfamiliar, but trends don't last forever, and sometimes they just result in close margins before they shift back, not an actual win for your efforts). I suspect Joe Biden will invest in this state against Donald Trump in particular, as Trump won by just 5-points here. Cruz is uniquely unlikable (if he retired, this would oddly be a safer hold for the Republicans), which is why Beto O'Rourke came so close to beating him in 2018. Democrats are floating the Castro brothers (HUD Secretary Julian and Rep. Joaquin), but I honestly hope they try for Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL player who then worked for the Obama administration. He doesn't come with the national Democratic politics expectations that sunk O'Rourke in 2022 (i.e. a presidential campaign where he already ran hard left & would be easier to attack), and would be a good counter move against Cruz.
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| Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) |
I'll be honest, part of me wanted to move Texas ahead a few slots, because if the most likely outcome (Trump vs. Biden, Cruz vs. Allred) were to come to pass, that would probably warrant #7 on this list. But that's a lot of "if's" and it's easier to bet on close presidential races from 2020. Democrats, though, go into the 2024 election with a very strong hand in the Keystone State. The party is coming off of three straight cycles of wins, reelecting Gov. Wolf & Sen. Casey in 2018, flipping the state for Joe Biden in 2020, & taking both the open Gov/Senate seats in 2022, in this case flipping the Senate race. John Fetterman won by more than Ron Johnson, Ted Budd, or Raphael Warnock, and Pennsylvania Democrats had an incredible 2022. Given Bob Casey's popularity, I would assume that continues into 2024 even if the presidential race is competitive. PA Republicans, who are already openly flirting with another disaster in 2024 (i.e. running Doug Mastriano against Casey, or another out-of-state challenge from Dave McCormick), clearly haven't learned their lessons, and honestly, I don't know if there's a realistic Republican in the state who could best Casey unless Biden's chances tank.
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| Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) |
Sen. Debbie Stabenow had a weirdly close Senate election in 2018 despite it being a cycle that she should've cruised to reelection to, resulting in the Republicans betting hard on John James in both 2020 & 2022 (the latter paying off, barely, as he's headed into the next Congress as a member of the House). Stabenow has indicated that she will run for a fifth term to the US Senate in 2024, which will hold off a potentially epic primary for a while (the bench includes Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, & Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg), and the Republicans have not named any serious candidates here after the shellacking they got in the state, losing all statewide offices, both state legislatures, and a House seat (nearly two, as James almost lost in MI-10). I suspect they go with a rookie candidate in 2024 (that's just a gut guess), maybe a self-funder given they have better options elsewhere, but Michigan's importance as a swing state (albeit the swing state that seems the bluest of the seven big ones) means Stabenow will show up in some capacity on this list, so I'll put her at #7 all things being equal.
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| Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) |
We move now into the races that seem genuinely competitive, and not just hypothetically competitive. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in 2018 won reelection by a strong margin, and she's inarguably the Democrats' best statewide candidate here. But unlike Michigan & Pennsylvania, after a (very) thin win in 2020 (and a Trump win in 2016), Democrats had a mixed bag in Wisconsin in 2022. They won the Governorship & Attorney General spots, but couldn't flip the Senate seat, lost a House seat, & also lost the State Treasurer's office. The Republicans best candidate would be Rep. Mike Gallagher, but Gallagher is now getting to chair the House Select Committee on China, a plum gig that he might want to ride out a bit longer and go after Evers' seat in 2026. If Gallagher doesn't run, this becomes much harder for the GOP, and much more of a risk they botch it like they did in 2022 by going with a Tim Michels (most Republicans would've beaten Tony Evers this past year). But it's Wisconsin, arguably the most vulnerable member of the Biden 25-state coalition, so expect Republicans to go wild here.
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| Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-AZ) |
I say arguably because it's also possible that Nevada is the most vulnerable. Turnout in Nevada was fascinating-Catherine Cortez Masto won reelection due to her turnout in Washoe County (the only way she was going to win with her rather mundane margins in Clark County). The big question for 2024 is if this can hold, and if Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) can stop some of the bleeding in Clark County with a higher turnout presidential election. Democrats, it has to be noted, lost the governorship here (the only state in the country where the governorship flipped red in 2022), so it's a state that Republicans will pay attention toward in 2024, as it's also a plum possible flip on a presidential level. The question, much like in Wisconsin & Michigan, is who runs against her. Rep. Mark Amodei would normally have right-of-first-refusal, but will he give up a safe House seat to make a nailbiter race against Rosen...particularly given he would be vulnerable from his right flank? Adam Laxalt lost his last two races, so he's out, and there's always the possibility that the state (notoriously bad at recruitment) flubs and goes with someone like Danny Tarkanian or Michelle Fiore. There's a competitive option here, and it cannot be denied that Cortez Masto nearly lost this seat in 2022, but it's too early to say much with certainty other than that this race will be competitive.
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| Sheriff Mark Lamb (R-AZ) |
This seat we're going to consider for the time being to be "Democratic-held" because that's essentially what it is, even though an Independent currently holds the seat, Sen. Krysten Sinema (who caucuses with the Democrats). Sinema's switch to Independent was a gambit, one with potential but it's one I don't think will work at this point. Democrats in the state already hated her, and it's clear that they're willing to risk the seat even if it means electing a Republican. Both Reps. Ruben Gallego & Greg Stanton (D) are openly exploring a run here, and it's hard to imagine either of them get out given Sinema's abysmal approval ratings and limited appeal to either party. Republicans are in a situation here, as the likeliest candidate (2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake) has endorsed Pinal Conty Sheriff Mark Lamb rather than get into the race. While there are other Republicans who could run (Mitch McConnell would love to see Gov. Doug Ducey get in, and if not him, State Treasurer Kimberly Yee), I struggle to see how either of them would win a primary in a state that has as hard-red of a Republican base as Arizona, particularly against someone like Lamb, who would surely get Trump's endorsement. At some point Republicans will realize they're giving up seats that they shouldn't be (i.e. Yee would be Governor-Elect right now if Republicans had run her instead of Lake), but it's been a decade of the same mistakes and so a situation where arch-conservative Lamb is the nominee doesn't seem out-of-the-question. The biggest ask is what Sinema does. It's clear her party switch was designed to keep her options open for a second term, but I don't think she runs just to get 10-15% of the vote...it'd kill her future prospects on K Street. If she retires, this moves down the list as Democrats seem in a better position than Republicans in Arizona, but the noise here and the prospect of a Sinema spoiler make this the most vulnerable Biden state on the Senate map.
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| Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) |
That moves us into the three seats that the Republicans are hoping to sweep. It has to be said-Democrats either need to win two of these three seats, or pickup a seat (likely Texas) somewhere while holding the AZ/MI/PA/WI coalition together to have a shot at the Senate map. If Democrats don't get blown out in 2024 (i.e. they get at least 49 seats), they'd have a good shot at winning back the Senate in 2026 (or if they held it in 2024 by any margin, they'd likely hold the Senate for the entire 2020's), but this is a tough lift as the Top 3 have three strong incumbent Democrats who are all underdogs. Montana has the best ability to go rogue, as it likes its mavericks, and Jon Tester is the closest the Democrats have to Susan Collins in terms of crossover appeal. It helps that the Republican bench here isn't great. The two likeliest contenders are Reps. Matt Rosendale & Ryan Zinke, both of whom feel like they're willing to take on a tough primary in 2024 to have a shot at Tester (i.e. they could tear each other apart next year, helping him in the process). Zinke had a closer-than-expected race in his new House seat, and Tester beat Rosendale in 2018. Tester is still the underdog, but if the Democrats hold the Senate in 2024, he'd be part of the majority, probably its most valuable member. It's not clear yet whether he'll seek one more term (he's 66, and has indicated he doesn't want to be an old man in the Senate), but signals are that he'll go for one more term.
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| Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) |
Sherrod Brown was elected to the Senate the same year as Jon Tester, and unlike Tester, has already declared he will run for a fourth term to the US Senate. But while both of these are red states, I have less confidence in Ohio favoring crossover voting (ironic, given its history as a bellwether state). Republicans (in a state with a rich bench) are clamoring for one of the last chances at a promotion for a while, and already we've seen Rep. Warren Davidson, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, & Attorney General David Yost all considering the race. The best shot Brown would have if none of these men made it, and he got someone like JD Vance (who, it has to be noted, still won against a strong challenger) or JR Majewski (who lost in a landslide). Brown is the best candidate the Democrats have, but he will have to outrun Biden by at least ten points in a state that has become averse to ticket-splitting at that level. I don't know if he can do it. To give you some perspective about my pessimism about this race, if you told me that you had a time machine & saw that Democrats got 50 Senate seats on Election Night 2024, I'd assume Tester won & Cruz lost...not that Brown pulled off the upset.
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| Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) |
Democrats won't realize until he's gone how much they're going to miss Joe Manchin. The man whose name is a swear word in certain corners of social media has not announced if he'll seek another term, but I'll be honest-it doesn't matter. Manchin could outrun Joe Biden by 20-points and still lose this race...there's just not a feasible situation where he gets another term. In hindsight, it's a miracle that he got a victory in 2018 at all. The state not being thought of as competitive at the time probably saved him (going under the radar with universal name recognition & approval). This was always a borrowed time seat, and Democrats used it wisely, getting two full years of Senate majority with some of the most impressive legislative victories in decades (Inflation Reduction Act and the 2023 Omnibus Bill are remarkable achievements in a 50/50 Senate), and will hopefully get a chance at another Supreme Court seat before Manchin heads back home. Who will replace Manchin is a legitimate question. Democrats are probably hoping for Gov. Jim Justice, who would be more moderate than Rep. Alex Mooney, but either one would be a safe bet against Manchin. Forget Manchin winning-if West Virginia moves from the #1 spot at any point during the next two years on this list, I will be stunned.
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