Stop Blaming Democrats for Republican Extremism

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO)

In 2012, Sen. Claire McCaskill looked like she was about to lose reelection.  In a year where Democrats were doing well in most races, McCaskill's chances seemed to be on life support.  Four years after nearly taking Missouri, President Obama wasn't at all competitive in what was once a quintessential swing state, and Missouri was transforming from a state where rural Democrats could give enough support with KC/STL metros to get wins for the Democrats into a hard-right state that could elect someone like Josh Hawley or Donald Trump.  But McCaskill, who had been in Missouri politics for decades, had an ace-up-her-sleeve.  She knew of all of her Republican opponents Todd Akin had a history of putting his foot in his mouth, and so, flush-with-cash, she ran $2 million worth of ads prior to the primary saying Akin was "too conservative for Missouri," an attack that in a Republican primary seemed like it was an asset.  McCaskill's gambit worked-Akin won the primary, and a few weeks later, Akin said in an interview that women who had been the victim of a "legitimate rape" couldn't get pregnant (despite the fact that all rape is illegitimate by definition and that women can & do become pregnant as a result of rape).  Akin was faced with calls to drop out of the race, as he had put at risk a seat that felt like a sure thing, but he refused, and on November 6, 2012, McCaskill won by 15-points against Akin (a margin a Democrat may not reach in that state again in my lifetime), largely due to a backlash from moderate/conservative female voters who refused to back Akin even if they weren't wild about McCaskill.

Since McCaskill, this has become something of standard practice, sometimes with great results like McCaskill's, other times with horrifying ones (Democrats who gleefully bragged about Donald Trump being unelectable soon found that this was not the case).  This has become a particularly important conversation in 2022.  Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D-PA) has run negative ads against Doug Mastriano, while Democrats have also been running a campaign against Kari Lake in Arizona...all of the ads of which make them seem unpalatable by Democratic standards but give them an edge in the Republican primaries.  This past week, Maryland Republicans nominated Dan Cox, an ardent Trump supporter, in one of the bluest states in America which will now certainly flip to the Democrats.  This doesn't always work (Democrats have tried this year to do this tactic in Colorado & California in what ended up being a waste-of-money), but it's become standard practice.

The question that some, including McCaskill, has poised is if this is correct to do in an era where Republicans on the far right, particularly those like Trump, Mastriano, & Lake, are skeptical of democratic processes and deny that Joe Biden won the White House in 2020 (which he did).  Some have said that Democrats are playing a dangerous game, while others are blaming them for ensuring that people like Mastriano & Lake get to be in positions of power, potentially governing highly-important swing states ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

I am in the middle on this.  The first thing I want to say is that, yes, it is a dangerous game.  Claire McCaskill's seat, it's worth noting, was important but it never decided who held the majority in Congress during her second term (it did during her first term, but that had nothing to do with Akin).  Had Akin won from 2013-19, the party in control of the Senate would've remained the one who held it with her in office...though obviously Democrats had no way of knowing that.  It's also worth noting that this wouldn't work in Missouri today.  It seems probable that former Governor Eric Greitens, by pretty much every definition a far more heinous politician & human being than Akin could ever hope to be, will beat any contender in the Missouri Senate race this fall because the state is so highly-polarized.  So this tactic would be idiotic in some states, and Democrats seem to acknowledge this, only trying it in places where an election denier would be guaranteed a loss (like Maryland) or in purple states where gaining a point or two of disaffected conservatives might truly make the difference (like Pennsylvania or Arizona).

Kari Lake (R-AZ)

But I also think the media needs to stop putting the onus on Democrats here.  The job of people like Shapiro, Katie Hobbs in Arizona, & Wes Moore in Maryland (the candidates facing Mastriano, Lake, & Cox, respectively) isn't to help the Republican Party in their states become less extreme-it's to get the most votes in November.  So while this is risky, it's playing with fire for a worthy cause.  The Republican opponents of these election deniers are still very conservative, they still will govern as Republicans...there's a lot to be gained from this strategy, and if the only way to beat a Republican is to try to peel off moderates & independents, this is one way to do it.

It's also worth noting that Democrats are not voting in these primaries.  There is no evidence of widespread party-switching to change the outcome of a Republican primary in order to win a general...indeed, the only example close to this in the past decade would be Thad Cochran in 2014, where African-American voters who were traditionally progressive switched to vote for Cochran in the runoff, likely getting him victory.  But they did this because Cochran was the more moderate of the two contenders, not the more conservative.  Democrats are attempting to do something similar in the Wyoming At-Large seat this year to help Liz Cheney get another term.  While Democrats are running ads, it's Republicans who are listening to them.  The media blames Democrats, but this is another example of the media forgetting that Republicans are supposed to be adults too...why should Democrats be blamed for Republicans' actions in primaries?

After all, Democrats are not falling for this.  While Democrats have ousted incumbent House members in the past decade, it's not due to Republican efforts.  Democrats also, largely, have not been idiotic about giving up winnable seats by nominating gadflies.  In 2018, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (the most moderate Democrat in either house of Congress) had a liberal challenger that would have certainly been defeated in the general...she lost the primary in a landslide.  The only time that Democrats gave up an otherwise winnable federal election in the past decade due to a primary miscalculation was Nebraska-2, and it's not like Brad Ashford was a sure thing compared to Kara Eastman.  Democrats have not made these mistakes-this is entirely a Republican phenomenon, which kind of means that while Democrats might be greasing the wheels, the cart is already barreling down a hill.  People like Mastriano & Cox winning don't reflect Democrats' chicanery...they represent the will of the Republican Party.