In the wake of the 2016 elections, I have used this quote when it comes to the Republican Party. Starting in 2016, the Republican Party got something that it could never have hoped for-the living manifestation of its decade-long "Southern Strategy" represented in the form of Donald Trump, someone it could, like the Ring of Power, pour all of its malice, hatred, & disdain for Americans who did not represent the white straight male hierarchy into, and who could in fact bring-to-life what people like Ronald Reagan, Pat Robertson, Karl Rove, & Mitch McConnell had been trying to bring to life for decades-a government that works for a minority of people, specifically the conservative wing of the American populace.
I know that people are tired of trying to use real life to make allegories about politics, and other than Trump as the ring I'll abandon the allusion here, but I think it brings up an interesting point-for the most part, the past six years have gone exactly as this faceless Republican ethos of being anti-government, anti-truth, & anti-science has planned. Trump was able to appoint three Supreme Court justices, largely because of McConnell's breaking of democratic norms in 2016 by not allowing Merrick Garland to have a fair trial in the Senate. The last of those justices, Amy Coney Barrett, came just days before an election that Donald Trump was certain to lose, and came after Democrats in Missouri, Florida, & Indiana threw out incumbents based largely on Trump's devoted fanbase...a devoted fanbase that stormed the Capitol and tried to kill the vice president, nearly ending democracy in the process. It saw institutions such as the Secret Service, Supreme Court, & the Postal Service be destroyed in the public eye, and hundreds of thousands of people died in the wake of an anti-vaccine movement that Trump helped to perpetuate.
It's not entirely clear whether or not, yet, Trump losing in 2020 particularly hurt the movement rather than just delayed it. Though the past two years have seen a lot of substantial bills passed that include progressive reforms, they've also continued to sew distrust in the democratic norms. People realized that the Supreme Court was deeply conservative & undemocratic, stripping them of their rights (specifically access to abortion rights), and in the process people felt despondent, blaming not the Republicans who put those people on the Court but instead people like Joe Biden & Chuck Schumer, who are hamstrung with limited resources to fix it. Biden's approval fell, and most polls indicated that Americans will punish his party at the polls...despite Trump literally attempting a coup and no one in the Republican Party save for a smattering of figures like Liz Cheney & Adam Kinzinger standing up to him, the Republican Party winning back Congress after such an event would indicate that the American populace will continue to deny it is in danger. Even if Trump is arrested, this movement has evolved past him-figures like Ron DeSantis, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Kristi Noem, Kevin McCarthy...they are basically a sleeker, more sophisticated version of Trumpism.
So where, exactly does the "something happened the ring did not intend" come in here? It comes in an unusual set of polls we've started to see in recent days. It's become undeniable that despite Biden's approval being in the toilet, so far Democrats have not abandoned his party. Indeed, they seem to have become more determined through impressive fundraising and polls that show even the most marginal of figures like Matt Cartwright & Cindy Axne being competitive in November. Senate Democrats have yet to watch one of their own completely falter heading into November (which should've started to happen by now), and instead increasingly it looks like the most vulnerable seat on the map isn't held by a Democrat at all-it's held by Republican Pat Toomey, where Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is running one of the scrappiest, most inventive campaigns we've seen in a while (in many ways borrowing from the Trump playbook).
From a practical standpoint, a situation where Democrats buck trends and do something insane like hold the House or increase 2-3 seats in the Senate remains still the stuff of fairy tale, and quite frankly it would remain that way until Election Night were it to happen, as you'd be hard-pressed to convince most people that the Republicans won't get the natural midterm bounce. Democratic success of any kind in November would be, by definition of history, a surprise. But the closer we get, the clearer it is that the American populace isn't willing to take a lot of risks with Republicans, and the map is particularly kind in 2022 for a populace that largely wants to vote for Biden's party, even if they aren't loving him as president. If the Democrats won all of the Biden seats (they won't, but let's do this for a hypothetical) they'd have 226 House Seats (+4), and 52 Senate Seats (+2). Putting aside the practical aspects of such a scenario (the filibuster would likely be gone, the Democrats would be able to profoundly reshape the lower courts in a way that would last decades), it would also do something to the Republican plans for 2024. Right now, the GOP has not suffered an electoral punishment other than Trump and the two Georgia senators in 2021, something that they feel they can quickly undo. A four-year trifecta, particularly one that is built on a map that they know Democrats can use to win again in 2024, would scare the crap out of them, to the point where change would be certain. Democrats hitting 52+ seats in the Senate would mean that Mitch McConnell's assumption that he'll take back the majority if not in January, then surely in 2025, would go up in smoke-the Senate would be a coin toss in 2024. Right now, the Democrats' biggest disadvantage is assuming the inevitable. But like the ring finding Bilbo Baggins, winning 52 Senate seats or an unexpected House majority (or both) in November, while unlikely, would change the game.
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